Hedge fund news, information and data. Large focus on under the radar emerging managers. Est. 2011 (Formerly Valuewalk Premium) DM us confidential tips
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ValueAct "Rocket is our biggest new investment of 25. Our thesis is simple idea: this is not just a mortgage firm it is a tech platform in one of the most consumer-hostile, fragmented, and bureaucratic categories of American finance." Q2 letter $RKT
hedgefundalpha.com/letters/
1/ David Einhorn is questioning the AI boom's trillion-dollar promises.
In Greenlight Capital's Q3 letter, he challenged SpaceX's ($SPCX) $28.5T addressable market claim and Anthropic's $30T estimate.
Meanwhile, Greenlight fell 3.3% in Q3 and 1.5% YTD.
3/ Einhorn argues AI users may capture more economic value than AI providers.
Why is he skeptical of today's valuations, and where is Greenlight finding opportunities instead?
Read Greenlight Capital's full Q3 2026 investor letter below:
hedgefundalpha.com/investor-…
1/ Arquitos Capital plunged 51.9% in Q3 2026, wiping out its earlier gains and leaving the fund down 26.5% YTD.
The culprit? Liquidia ($LQDA).
A patent ruling sent shares from $71 to $30, crushing the value of Arquitos' long-dated call options.
2/ But Steven Kiel isn't selling.
Following Liquidia's $380.7M settlement with United Therapeutics ($UTHR), Kiel sees a path to $1B in 2027 revenue.
His valuation? $75-$100 per share, with further upside possible from L606.
3/ Despite the brutal drawdown, Kiel remains bullish on $LQDA and is launching a special purpose vehicle to capitalize on the opportunity.
Why does he believe the stock can recover beyond its previous highs?
Read Arquitos Capital's full Q3 letter below:
hedgefundalpha.com/investor-…
1/ What if you could invest in the humanoid robot boom without picking the winning robot maker?
At Sohn Tokyo, TriVista Capital's Masaki Gotoh pitched Harmonic Drive Systems ($6324), a Japanese precision parts leader he believes could benefit regardless of who wins.
2/ Humanoid robots have roughly 40 joints versus 5-6 in industrial robots.
Gotoh estimates Harmonic Drive holds 60-70% of the global market by value for strain wave reducers.
With 50 years of expertise, he sees precision, not volume, as its competitive edge.
3/ China may dominate robot production, but Gotoh believes Harmonic Drive can win in premium applications.
Why does he see a potential 100-1,000x expansion in the opportunity over decades?
Read our full Sohn Tokyo coverage below:
hedgefundalpha.com/conferenc…
1/ Long a Korean defense holding company trading at 36% of NAV. Short a battery materials holding company trading at 177%.
At Sohn Tokyo, Pertento Partners' Eduardo Marques pitched a pair trade: long Hanwha ($000880), short Ecopro ($086520).
2/ Marques sees 108% upside in Hanwha, driven by Hanwha Aerospace ($012450) and a narrowing holding-company discount.
For Ecopro, he sees 89% downside, citing leverage, weak margins and mounting competition at Ecopro BM ($247540).
3/ Why does this valuation gap persist?
Marques breaks down Hanwha's defense backlog, Korea's governance reforms, Ecopro's funding risks and the catalysts that could close the gap.
Read our full Sohn Tokyo coverage below:
hedgefundalpha.com/conferenc…
1/ A Japanese drugstore chain gave its president and brother stock options at a 99%+ discount to their plain option value, according to Oasis Management.
At Sohn Tokyo, Seth Fischer accused Kusuri No Aoki ($3549) of self-enrichment and detailed Oasis's lawsuit.
2/ Oasis says the Aoki brothers made ¥8.82B exercising the options, while the family's stake rose from ~30% to 41.5%.
The resulting drop in free float pushed Aoki off the TSE Prime Market.
Oasis is suing for up to ¥7.3B on the company's behalf.
3/ Fischer also challenged the valuation assumptions, the timing of an earnings downgrade and the board's oversight.
Could better governance unlock more value at $3549?
Read our full coverage of his Sohn Tokyo presentation below: hedgefundalpha.com/conferenc…
1/ A failed takeover saga may have left a Japanese industrial leader undervalued.
At Sohn Tokyo 2026, SILQ Capital’s Hideki Kinuhata pitched Makino ($6135), arguing that investors are overlooking record revenue, rising margins and aerospace growth.
2/ Kinuhata estimates Makino has ~50% share in aerospace machining.
SILQ projects 22% annual EPS growth through FY2029, while the stock trades at ~11x forward earnings.
Management also raised its total payout target from 25% to 60%.
3/ After failed bids from Nidec ($6594), MBK and NSSK, could Makino finally get the valuation it deserves?
Kinuhata explains the aerospace moat, margin upside and risks behind SILQ’s thesis.
Read Hideki Kinuhata's full pitch below:
hedgefundalpha.com/conferenc…
1/ Japan’s small caps may be approaching a major turning point.
Ahead of Sohn Tokyo, Hoku’s Dan Maguire says a generational shift in management, governance reforms and valuations near 20-year relative lows are creating opportunities for stock pickers.
2/ One hidden gem: Maeda Kosen (7821.T).
Maguire highlights its forged wheels business supplying Ferrari F1 and Porsche, alongside infrastructure products.
Despite these growth drivers, shares trade at roughly 14x earnings and 6x EV/EBITDA.
3/ Dan also discusses Kongsberg (KOG.NO), which his Wellington team held from 2006 until 2023 as it rose 50x, and how management succession could unlock Japan's next winners.
Read our exclusive interview: hedgefundalpha.com/profiles/…