Healthcare strategy pro | Exploring innovation & startups | Sharing insights on #HealthTech & #Entrepreneurship
Joined February 2021
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Henry Fire retweeted
I’m not sure whether Dean Ball is confessing to a regulatory capture strategy or simply predicting this will happen (he now says the latter). Either way, the weaponization of regulatory uncertainty as a competitive tool should be completely unacceptable.
He argues there’s no need to ban Chinese open-source models — just direct agencies to issue soft-law warnings that create enough FUD so regulated enterprises back off. “It needn’t be that well justified.”
Wrong. Regulatory decisions should always be well justified and grounded in facts, logic, and evidence, not the deliberate exploitation of fear and uncertainty. Implementing a surreptitious policy through manufactured doubt — rather than strong and explicit justification — corrodes the rule of law and invites future abuse against anyone.
We are at a critical inflection point in AI policy. The leading closed labs, already a duopoly in terms of AI model revenue, want the government to eliminate their open source competition. They have laid their cards on the table. It is time for the rest of Silicon Valley — the vast majority that still values open competition — to do the same.
Some observations on Kimi:
1. It's a very good model! I don't think its performance can be explained away by distillation or anything like that. In agentic coding sessions, it seems pretty much on par with the best public models of Q1 2026. In my fairly limited use, it also seemed very token hungry. It's not obvious to me that this model is actually that cheap to run.
2. I am personally surprised the Chinese state continues to allow the open sourcing of models this good, given potential risks. To be clear, I *myself* might be fine with models presenting this level of marginal risk being open weight, but I am surprised that China is fine with it. I suspect the reason they are is 75% explained by strategic blindness/lack of AGI-pilledness (the CCP is very Yann Lecun-y in its views of AI). The other 25% or so is their lack of compute for customer inference (making China's open-weight strategy an unintended byproduct of US export controls) and the normal Chinese strategy of aggressive exports. For the companies, as opposed to the government, the decision to open source is partially ideological and partially because they are behind, and they know that very few people would pay for sub-frontier models from China.
3. Open-weight models are inherently decelerationist, and I'm continually surprised to see the so-called "accelerationists" so excited about open-weight models. I suspect the reason they are is that they know open-weight models are effectively ungovernable, and they simply like the overall cloak of ungovernability open-weight models create over the whole of AI. It's not a bad strategy; it reminds me of James Scott's recounting of the hill people in "the art of not being governed." Still, in the end, open-weight models deter further AI capex.
4. One probable outcome of an open-weight-model-dominant world is full AI communism, which is precisely what China proposes: rather than a market product, AI is a "public good" which will ultimately be provided by the state as a kind of "digital public infrastructure." This future strikes me as a dystopian hellscape, but I've never met an open-weight models advocate who doesn't ultimately concede this is where things end. You'd be surprised how many 'accelerationists' lobbied me, while I was in government, to support an eleven or twelve-figure federally funded data center so that startups could train models at a subsidy and then give them away for free. There was no other way for AI to progress, they said. Perhaps this is the logical end state of things. Nonetheless, I find myself surprised to see supposed accelerationists excited about such an outcome. I think many of them just don't know what they're doing. Many accelerationists do not view the creation and serving of frontier models as a legitimate business.
5. I would guess that the Trump Administration will at some point realize that their best strategy here would be to create large amounts of regulatory risk around the use of open-weight Chinese models. You don't need to "ban open source" (one of the dumber motifs of AI policy discussion). You just need to direct every agency to issue soft law that creates FUD. "A Federal Reserve Advisory Bulletin found that there may be backdoors in Chinese AI models." It needn't be that well justified. You just create enough regulatory risk that every regulated enterprise backs off. You probably don't want to create so much regulatory risk that you scare off the hyperscalers from serving Chinese models; this will just drive startups to sketchier providers. There's a happy middle ground here. I'd assume they will do some version of this.
6. It's probably true that open-weight models of this capability make the world a bit more dangerous, but not so much more that you'll really notice. At some point the models will be capable enough that you will notice. "A nonliving, invisible, dangerous, and infinitely self-replicating agent escaped from a Chinese lab," you say? Color me shocked.
Henry Fire retweeted
Never use your HSA debit card to pay for medical bills.
Better way:
- pay medical bills with your credit card
- withdraw to bank from HSA
- pay off cc
Even better:
- pay medical bills with your cc
- invest your HSA
- pay off cc
- reimburse in 20-30 years (save receipts)
Henry Fire retweeted
This is a wild piece
Brilliant article by @profplum99 - I don’t think this could have been articulated anyway possibly better.
yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my…
Henry Fire retweeted
If subsidizing early retirees while you can’t afford a house, have student loans, medical debt, etc., angers you, then the solution is to vote
The median age in this country is 39, but the median voter age is early 50s…
Most congressional races are determined by their primaries so in reality 5-10% of the eligible electorate is determining the election…
For example VA-08 is a D+26 district - so fully determined by the primary. The incumbent has run unopposed 3/4 elections, and the last time there was a primary was 2022
So in 2022, ~39k dem primary voters determined Beyers victory in a district that had ~490k registered voters…open primary state too…
So ~8% of registered voters determined that a 70+ year old would represent an area of 776k people with a median age of 37…
Democracy is only for those who participate 🗳️
Early retirees like Bill & Shelly will see their health insurance premiums increase nearly 300%—from $442 to $1,700 per month if Congressional Republicans refuse to extend the enhanced tax credits.
That's an extra $15K a year families can't afford.
cnbc.com/2025/10/17/aca-enha…
Henry Fire retweeted
This is exactly what’s wrong w society
FDNY suspends officer for giving ‘hot girls’ ride on firetruck as department probes ‘frat house’ behavior trib.al/QYnKvMe
Henry Fire retweeted
Our immigration policies are going to forever change. Allowing millions of unvetted people into the country was one of the worst policy decisions in our country’s nearly 250-year history. And they scoffed at @realDonaldTrump’s wall, called him racist, and sold off the wall parts for pennies on the dollar.
@POTUS Biden and @KamalaHarris have a massive amount of blood on their hands. And what’s particularly astonishing is how they never ever apologized to the American people. Let them step down in disgrace and let’s say a prayer for this poor woman and her family and friends.
🚨 #BREAKING: The man arrested for setting a sleeping woman on fire in the NYC subway is a Guatemalan migrant.
He lit the woman on fire and watched her burn to de*th inside a Coney Island F train.
Source: New York Post
Henry Fire retweeted
A quick economics lesson on the value of the government “creating jobs”:
— if the government just prints money and gives it to people (eg stimmy checks), that does not create value. It creates inflation.
— if the government hires people to dig holes and fill them back up, it’s the same as stimmy checks but with the illusion of employment.
— if the government hires people to make holes in other countries, it doesn’t create any value. In fact, it removes productive resources from our economy.
The only thing that creates prosperity is the creation of good and services that Americans actually want.
Some amount of defense spending is necessary but it should be seen as a cost not a benefit.
Ukraine aid money is going to Alabama to produce the following systems: High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Javelins, M1A1 Abrams tanks, M2A4 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Hydra-70 rockets, M777 howitzer parts (Paladin M109A7), M88A2 Heavy Equipment Recovery Combat Utility Lift Evacuation System (HERCULES) vehicles, and Stryker armored personnel carriers.
This is creating jobs for your constituents and hot assembly lines in factories in Alabama that will benefit U.S. national security.
Why are you voting against Alabama defense jobs?
Henry Fire retweeted
Kaiser Permanente brought in $95.4B in total operating revenue in 2022. @commonspirit raked in $33.9B
Check out how the other large nonprofit hospitals performed last year
bit.ly/468zE5n
Henry Fire retweeted
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Henry Fire retweeted
Constitutional Amendment proposal:
“Any bill passed by the Congress must be read aloud on the floor of both houses of Congress, the House of Representatives and Senate, in their entirety with all living duly elected members physically present for the entirety of the reading.”
