$E.TO Enterprise Group is the best way to bet on the LNG super cycle — and today we got another substantial catalyst with LNG Canada Phase 2 approved. This locks in a multi-year uptrend in drilling activity across Western Canada, directly expanding the market Enterprise Group services. On top of that, their gas turbines solution keeps taking share as operators switch to the more efficient and cheaper alternative. Net-net: HSD EV/EBITDA for a business that can reinvest every dollar it generates at +20% ROIC, while diversifying into long-term installations. The story isn't reflected in the price. I don't think the recovery from 2025 lows is even reflected yet. I've been covering the stock for long and in Undervalued and Undercovered we have done 4 management calls over the last 5 quarters.

Might regret saying this right before earnings, but the setup for $PLBY looks very good. Why? Let me explain. The street is at 5.0m of Q3 Adj EBITDA. I get 7.1m on 33.4m of revenue. About 40% above consensus and up 75% year on year. Q3 is the first quarter the media work actually prints: paid voting contests where Playboy gets paid to collect emails, voters pushed into a new subscription, plus the seasonal step up in licensing. Coverage is thin and the published numbers look stale to me. That is usually where the gap between estimate and print comes from. Honey Birdette has done seven straight quarters of double digit store comps, Q2 revenue up 18%, and June was the best month in its history. At 8 to 13x EBITDA that is 56 to 137m against a market cap of about 120m. If the US flagship rollout and the online growth work, that becomes 140 to 270m over two to three years. So a good part of what you are paying is covered by the lingerie business, and the licensing arm comes at roughly 6x earnings that are mostly already contracted. Byborg, a strategic, paid 1.50 a share in October 2024, before the turnaround was proven and when the company barely made any Adj EBITDA. This year should clear about 30m. The stock is 1.03. Debt has gone from 218m to 145m, and they are buying back nearly 15% of the shares from Fortress at 1.05. To be clear, this is a multiyear thesis rather than an earnings trade. But expectations going in are low enough that the short term entry does not look bad either. I have done a lot of work on this name. Full write-up and the detail behind the Q3 numbers linked in the comments. It is a large position for me and in Pequity U&U Global Opportunities FIL.

What is your best idea under 500 million market cap where everything looks ugly right now, and in two years it will look completely different?

DOV.MI doValue: an antifragile business at 3x 2029 free cash flow, on a worst case plan. It is like buying a copper miner at the bottom of the cycle, valued on trough cash flow, while nobody prices what happens when the cycle turns. I went through every slide and every analyst question from the Capital Markets Day. What the plan assumes: Three more years at the bottom of the credit cycle A legacy book that is never refilled 2026 guidance trimmed, but still sitting above the most bearish analyst What is already working: The cost programme is effectively reinvestment at around a 50% annual return, by taking out overstaffing coeo, the digital collections arm, guided to around 30% EBITDA growth a year and already beating What is excluded, on the record: Re-tenders Tax arrears Any turn in the credit cycle Greek re-performing loan sales are barely in there And it is genuinely anticyclical. Credit concerns in Europe are picking up, which for most of your book is a problem. Here it is the demand driver. More bad loans means more work to service, so the business gets stronger exactly as credit gets worse. Catalysts: coeo portfolio sale by year end, FY26 numbers, a possible rating upgrade, buybacks. Full review in undervalued and undercovered, link in comments

A monopoly at 5.5 to 6.5x EV/EBITDA, with the biggest order year in its industry’s history still to show up in its revenue. One component, nothing in the industry gets built without it, more than 95% market share. The industry is critical infrastructure in structural growth, and for the countries doing most of the buying it has just stopped being discretionary spending and become a matter of national security. The rest of the setup: 28% of the market cap in net cash, zero debt Aggressive buybacks Quite liquid and US listed And those multiples are on a normalised year, not on the growth that is likely coming. 2025 was the biggest year this industry has ever had for new project awards, not one dollar of it has shipped yet, and from our primary research we believe those orders convert across 2027 and 2028. If 2028 reaches record revenue, we are talking about 3.9x EV/EBITDA. Why it is cheap: A war pushed projects in its main region to the right Guidance was pulled in May Management wrote off a diversification project they had funded for years No project was cancelled, they were delayed. We are profiting from uncertainty, not taking on risk. Given the business quality this has historically traded at high teens and even mid twenties EV/EBITDA, and at current prices a takeover is a real possibility. The market is treating delays as permanent impairment. After going through the filings and talking to insiders and management, we think expectations for profitability once the recovery lands are far too low, and nobody is pricing the optionality of a record year as the 2025 orders and the delayed ones arrive on a largely fixed cost base. Full write-up in Undervalued and Undercovered, link in comments.

Might regret saying this right before earnings, but the setup for $PLBY looks very good. Why? Let me explain. The street is at 5.0m of Q3 Adj EBITDA. I get 7.1m on 33.4m of revenue. About 40% above consensus and up 75% year on year. Q3 is the first quarter the media work actually prints: paid voting contests where Playboy gets paid to collect emails, voters pushed into a new subscription, plus the seasonal step up in licensing. Coverage is thin and the published numbers look stale to me. That is usually where the gap between estimate and print comes from. Honey Birdette has done seven straight quarters of double digit store comps, Q2 revenue up 18%, and June was the best month in its history. At 8 to 13x EBITDA that is 56 to 137m against a market cap of about 120m. If the US flagship rollout and the online growth work, that becomes 140 to 270m over two to three years. So a good part of what you are paying is covered by the lingerie business, and the licensing arm comes at roughly 6x earnings that are mostly already contracted. Byborg, a strategic, paid 1.50 a share in October 2024, before the turnaround was proven and when the company barely made any Adj EBITDA. This year should clear about 30m. The stock is 1.03. Debt has gone from 218m to 145m, and they are buying back nearly 15% of the shares from Fortress at 1.05. To be clear, this is a multiyear thesis rather than an earnings trade. But expectations going in are low enough that the short term entry does not look bad either. I have done a lot of work on this name. Full write-up and the detail behind the Q3 numbers linked in the comments. It is a large position for me and in Pequity U&U Global Opportunities FIL.