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Halifax, Canada
Joined September 2014
🧵 It's funny and painful to watch so-called Canadian elites argue about something they know little about. Not to mention #1 goal being to GASLIGHT all the time, 24-7. Here's what really happened with Canadian inflation and government. PLEASE share with anyone who's GASLIGHTING anyone.
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In 2 weeks (and it will be 7 months late), Canada will release their budget. And it will likely show a balanced (OPERATING) budget. The MSM, and propaganda machines will gaslight you into believing the magic. Here's National Bank's accounting for the magic.
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Canada is telling you they want to join the Economic FantasyLand called Europe.
it's been a while since we had a European sovereign debt crisis *FRANCE-GERMANY 10-YEAR YIELD SPREAD WIDENS 8BPS TO 135BPS France CDS widest in 13 years
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The Canadian government's mass immigration policies of the last 10 years were highly regressive. Having seemingly learned nothing, they are dead set on turning back on the taps rather than letting the country heal. On cue, the media has begun parroting the government's narrative and gaslighting anyone who disagrees. This suggests that they remain blissfully unaware that the Bank of Canada has written extensively about how (mass) immigration has negatively affected housing, rents, inflation, labour supply, wages, and productivity. So I've compiled an inexhaustive list to help these folks. 🏘️- Monetary Policy Report, October 2023 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️"The strength in rent and other housing costs is partly due to strong housing demand, which is supported by rapid population growth, and a structural lack of housing supply" 🏘️- Staff Analytical Note, December 2023 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️"The rise in immigration is nonetheless contributing to pressures in inflation components linked to house prices, given that it is adding more to housing demand than to housing supply in the context of structural imbalances in the Canadian housing market." 🏘️ - Speech by Toni Gravelle, December 2023 🔗bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/econ… ▶️"When a country’s population is growing quickly, the supply of housing also needs to increase to avoid a worsening in affordability. Shortly after immigration began ramping up in 2015, Canada’s vacancy rate—a measure of how many apartments and houses there are available to rent or buy—started to fall." 🏘️ - Monetary Policy Report, January 2024 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️"A larger increase in newcomers than in the past is adding pressure to the structural supply constraint in housing. This has helped to push the overall housing vacancy rate to record lows, which has underpinned house prices and led to higher rents (Chart 3-A)." 🏘️ - Staff Analytical Note, April 2024 🔗 bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/staf… ▶️"Meanwhile, the composition of immigrants coming to Canada has changed considerably since 2015. Historically, growth of the immigrant population in Canada came mostly from permanent residents....While the wages of the earlier immigrants are closer to those of Canadian-born workers and have been increasing over time, those of non-permanent residents are much lower and have fallen over this period. Because real hourly wages are typically correlated with labour productivity, this piece of evidence is consistent with non-permanent residents working in less productive occupations." 🏘️ - Monetary Policy Report, July 2024 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️"The increase in housing demand from newcomers is being felt across all types of housing, but the largest initial impact tends to be in rental markets. This is because most newcomers start out as renters." 👨‍🌾 - Staff Analytical Note, May 2025 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️"if newcomers’ conditional wages reflect their labour productivity, the productive capacity of the Canadian economy grew less than it would have if recent newcomers had the same socio-economic characteristics as in the past." ▶️"However, this gain has been particularly acute for certain industries such as accommodation and food services, business, building and other support services, and retail trade. Labour productivity in these industries—which are comprised of a sizable share of lower-skilled occupations—is lower than the average in the business sector." 👨‍🌾 - Staff Analytical Note, May 2025 🔗bankofcanada.ca/2025/06/staf… ▶️"Youth—individuals 15–24 years of age—represent a significant portion of the overall increase in unemployment since the start of 2023. This is a larger share than during other periods of rising unemployment (Chart 5). This is partly due to the high number of immigrants, who are generally younger than the rest of the population." 👨‍🌾 - Speech by Nicolas Vincent, May 2026 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️“The labour market is particularly challenging for young people”: The 2022–24 influx of young newcomers “intensified competition in Canada for lower-skill and entry-level jobs”. Youth unemployment has risen above 14%, and he expects it may normalize now that immigration has been cut. 🏘️ - Staff Article, September 2026 🔗bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/spar… ▶️"Strong population growth drove asking rents higher in recent years"
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Check out the latest Loonie Hour article. It includes a free Canadian chartpack you can download. Link below.
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Every serious investor should appreciate what’s happening here. And then ask, can it happen elsewhere? #Collision
BREAKING: French right-wing groups are marching in Lyon tonight to stop looters. They are singing the national anthem
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Who wants to tell them?
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Replying to @acoyne
Sir, the Bank of Canada has written extensively on this. It literally has impacted rents and housing prices.
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Loonie Hour is live in Montreal tomorrow! Still a few tickets available here. eventbrite.com/e/montreal-th…
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Canada's Mass Immigration (2017 to 2025) was the worst economic policy decision in Canadian history. It was NOT progressive; it was, in fact, extremely REGRESSIVE. It transferred wealth and market power: ➡️from the Young to the Old, ➡️from the Poor to the Rich, ➡️from Labour to Corporations, and ➡️from the Renter Class to the Owner Class. Prior to 2015, immigration to Canada was high and focused on high-skilled, high-wage labour. In 2015, THIS government CHANGED the RULES, which shifted the focus to low-skilled, low-wage labour. This hurt the job prospects of young Canadians entering the labour market, put downward pressure on wages and lowered Canada's productivity. ➡️bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/staf…) It also increased housing costs, particularly for renters, who tend to be poorer and younger. ➡️bankofcanada.ca/publications… In short, it was horrific for the youngest, poorest and most vulnerable in our society. Never mind the social upheaval it caused. Now that Job Vacancies have normalized and rents are falling, this government is floating the idea of raising immigration. It is outrageous. Worse, it is, again, being pitched as progressive when it is not. It hurts the Working Class; Bernie Sanders was right...youtu.be/vf-k6qOfXz0 The only thing that will improve the standard of living for working-class people is productivity growth. That's it.
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The EU wants closer ties with the EU. Govt gaslighting has become incredibly effective. The majority of Canadians have no idea about the European Union and its decay.
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CBC is mostly propaganda. Usually has an agenda with everything they produce.
CBC’s Marketplace has delivered another hack job on food inflation. In my view, it is one of the worst shows on television right now. This week’s segment featured two economists whose opinions fit the program’s narrative, without presenting the data, peer-reviewed research or modelling needed to substantiate their claims. Years ago, when I was pre-interviewed for the show, I felt they were fishing for one or two specific sound bites to convince Canadians that ALL businesses are greedy and utterly unethical. A balanced discussion did not seem to be the objective. This week’s coverage left me with the same impression. Expert commentary should be challenged and supported by evidence, especially on a taxpayer-funded program. Instead, CBC's Marketplace too often presents opinions as conclusions and leaves viewers with an incomplete understanding of complex issues. I no longer respond to their interview requests. Canadians deserve rigorous journalism, transparent evidence and a fair discussion. I find this kind of coverage disgusting.
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This is what Canada is headed towards. Yet, the gaslighting is blinding most.
France followed all of Krugman's recommendations: Big government spending, high taxes, migration. Now... Nobel winner Krugman says France may have become 'too big to save' and 'unsustainable fiscal path'. cnb.cx/4hDK84t
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Socialism will only succeed in Canada.
This video has over half a million views in the last 24 hours on my instagram The price of free things is your freedom
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Montreal! The Loonie Hour is coming to town! Come grab a drink or three with the boys and enjoy canapés and a lively macro discussion! eventbrite.com/e/20004986794… P.S. There is no Habs game that night! 😉
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France first, then the others.
FRENCH CENTRAL BANK HEAD EMMANUEL MOULIN WARNS STATE AT RISK OF BEING ‘STRANGLED BY INTEREST RATES’ - FT
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VERY interesting and it should catch your attention. Let's see if other (and especially other Japanese funds) funds also begin to liquidate French bonds. If not, then this will stabilize. Yet, other managers are also seeing this now and are most likely having the exact same conversation. And, let's not ignore the obvious - French officials (and unofficials) are working the phones HARD right now. Non-bond investors should follow $EUR to pickup on these moves.
🚨 Japan Just Broke The French Bond Market One Tokyo fund (Sumitomo Mitsui DS) didn’t trim exposure. It dumped every French government bond it held and rotated into German Bunds and short-term Japanese paper. Not a reduction. Full exit. Something that even shocked the Financial Street. The France-Germany 10-year spread blew past 140 basis points, the widest gap since the euro crisis. France's 5-year CDS has spiked up to 81 basis points, the highest since 2013. The higher the number, the greater the risk of national bankruptcy. French domestic holders are now facing a deeper mark-to-market loss and a less liquid exit to sell into the same one-way market. Japanese investors still sit on roughly ¥25 trillion of French debt, second only to American holders and this was a single manager’s book. Carry trades that funded higher-yielding global debt market with cheap yen just got a live demo of how fast the unwind can hit. When the bid from Japan disappears, the largest European sovereign market has to find new buyers at the same time its own government is arguing over a deficit plan that markets already distrust. If more Japanese money follows the same exit, the same flow that once compressed euro spreads can reprice them in the other direction. We now understand what @yutokanzakireal meant by saying “Japan is bringing the entire house down” in response to Scott Bessent’s “I am the house now” statement: Ending cheap-yen funding is forcing a margin call on the leveraged global debt system built on the carry trade and not just the U.S. leverage. France just got the first real look at what Japan’s wealth returning to the homeland looks like.
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Sovereign Debt Defaults will NEVER happen. Unless of course they do. France will be a doozy. So too, will be Britain. Let's not forget about the Germans. Japan would also be memorable. Canada of course is completely protected from any of this nonsense.
Most people don’t yet grasp what is happening in France. Markets are pricing French sovereign debt as junk, rating agencies will eventually have to follow. This will have two major impacts: 1. Most French banks are already rated at or just below the sovereign, so a move toward junk would likely drag domestically focused lenders with it. Credit to households and firms would slow sharply, hurting the economy and widening the fiscal deficit even further, a vicious cycle. 2. For the ECB, the constraint is legal as well as financial. A fall below investment grade would force sales by ratings-bound investors while making any backstop harder to justify under current rules. The next euro crisis will begin in France. The first, which began in Greece, will feel like a walk in the park compared with what comes next.
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This important bond market move is covered in today's Loonie Hour Episode #262. Posting soon. @SteveSaretsky @RichardDias_CFA
Good Morning from #Germany, where Berlin has reason to worry about France: Paris’s budget drama is pushing the French 10yr yield premium over Bunds toward 149bps, the widest since Jan 2012. German bonds are a haven, but French fiscal turmoil is hardly good news for Germany.
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Bond Markets in Crisis! Yields are rising everywhere, and at a RAPID pace. Remember, it's the JOURNEY (not Aerosmith) to higher long-term rates that is important, not the final level. Also remember; rising long-term rates is not only showing a potential developing crisis in bond markets - it's actually a crisis in Governments who issue the bonds. Budgets out of control, results in deficits out of control, which results in more tax revenues needed to pay out of control interest expenses. Which then results in out of control politicians taxing everything under the sun. Yes, it's potentially all getting out of control. Who's first to crack? Maybe it's the French.
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