I bet on politics on prediction markets: $6k - $325k

Joined July 2025
The issue with this is that every event is inherently 50/50 because it either happens or it doesn’t So if you routinely are buying things at 60 cents, you’re overpaying and gonna lose
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Padda retweeted
just learned about anchoring bias and tbh i still don't think it's entirely real
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Padda retweeted
1) Thinking of starting a weekly series on trader deep dives. @LolakisPM always keeping me locked-in. SO lets see what makes them so locked-in.
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Polymarket has now taken down the market on whether any of the Cornell Seven will be charged. After the lawsuit dropped, plenty of people wondered if charges would follow, and Polymarket was about the only place to get an unbiased and accurate forecast on that. I get why betting on something this grim feels wrong to people, but these markets have real social utility
Polymarket is taking bets on whether the seven Cornell students accused of raping a student will receive a felony sex crime charge. Among the athletes endorsing Polymarket: LeBron James, Derek Jeter, Eli Manning, Sue Bird, Reggie Bush and Richard Sherman.
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This is a good thing Traders read case files Traders price likelihood that this leads to a criminal case Society can get a decent probability on the case going anywhere What’s the problem? It’s not like the market caused anyone to be raped ? Nor was anyone in this case either lol
Polymarket and its athlete endorsers are under fire for a market on whether any of the seven male defendants accused of raping a Cornell student will get a felony sex crime charge. There was $451K in volume, with traders placing a 28% chance on the market resolving to “yes."

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POLYMARKET COMMUNITY PODCAST EP 3 Wednesday oct 14, 2 pm eastern time. Dont miss tomorrow show, well be interviewing the victim of the 6 figure scams that happened last week. well be discussing everything safety crypto and ledger current drama. join polymarket official discord to ask live QnA during the show and enter the chance to win special prizes!!!.
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Polymarket is really ramping up liquidity rewards and new market creation! $12,000 a day 🤩
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A new scam group is draining wealthy crypto traders through Steam games. Here's how it works: It starts with someone you regularly talk to in Discord servers, sometimes for months. Someone you might consider a friend. 1/4
So i just got drained for over 100k$ on @Polymarket (not a joke) how is your your day?
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Padda retweeted
Wild ride, but I think this is purely speculation on Nobel Peace Prize rather than any actual information. The Nobel Committee has greatly tightened up security after last year. It shouldn't happen again. We'll see in 25 minutes. While played up in media reporting, "insiders" are incredibly rare and have grown even rarer after regulatory crackdowns. polymarket.com/event/nobel-p…
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Bought about 18,000$ worth of no shares on Yulia Navalnaya at 95c a few days back, then I dumped them all at 60c today after seeing the sus price movement Quickly realized there was no leak and the price move was a pump and dump scheme, so bought no again Probably the most stressful day of trading I have ever experienced, but came out ok!
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Look at him, thats my Qual. Your what? My Qualitative! My vibe specialist. Look at him, you notice anything different about him? Look at his face. I'll give you a hint, his name is Jayden. He won a local poetry competition in bushwick! Yeah I'm sure of the vibe.
Quant firms are hiring idea guys, not quants I've been skeptical about the whole - software is commoditized, ideas are the moat argument But I've seen first hand the best quant and technical firms in the world hire thinkers, liberal arts grads, and generalists I predict the trend accelerates Letter from @AQRCapital below
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starts,in less than 2hours , hosted by,guest @Impij25 and ice. giveaway coming for viewers! live QnA in polymarket main discord server! xitter.cf/i/spaces/1qJVmyewebaGB

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Big week for polymarket.🥳🥳🥳 EP02 of the official polycommunity podcast will be this wednesday 4 pm eastern time. The first ep was a banger and you can expect more giveaways this week as long as you participate in the live QnA on Pm official discord server. This week guests: padda and Ice. come ask questions!!!!
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Polymarket has a market on whether any of the Cornell Seven get indicted Given how misleading and emotionally charged the reporting is on this case it’s especially valuable to have prediction markets to give us an unbiased view
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GUH
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Biggest single day loss yet 😐😐 I think i'll take a break from making bets for a few days and focus on research
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UN is tomorrow, Xi is visiting, midterms are coming up, oil is high and Trump is making threats that he can't follow through on So now looks like the time for a deal:
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Hes gonna rename iran
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump says he has a "big decision" coming up on Iran.
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First article of a series where I analyze remarkable Polymarket traders and look for lessons to level up own game. take a look. flightradar.substack.com/p/p…
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