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📆 Notable Earnings Week: Oct 26–30th, 2026.
$10.9T of Big Tech reports on the same 2 days as the Fed.
The breakdown 👇
• $MSFT Wed AMC: Azure guided 45%, EPS est $4.71
• $GOOGL Wed AMC: Cloud +82% last Q, EPS est $2.94
• $AMZN Thu AMC: $197–202B sales guide, EPS est $2.01
Supporting cast:
• $RMBS Mon AMC: kicks off the AI chip prints.
• $HOOD Tue AMC: retail + crypto volumes, est $0.55.
• $STX Tue AMC: HDD pricing, est $7.17 vs $2.51 YoY.
• $VRT Wed BMO: AI data center power, est $1.82.
• $SNDK Thu AMC: est $45.22 vs $0.90 a year ago.
• $COIN Thu AMC: est -$0.18 vs $1.44 a year ago.
Macro: Fed decision Wed 2pm ET, Q3 GDP Thu 8:30am ET. Also on deck: $LLY, $V, $XOM, $CVX.
Why it matters: after this week's chip selloff, hyperscaler capex guides decide if the AI trade gets its footing back.
🚀 $SKHY Q3: record $78.8B quarter
Operating profit beat by 8% at an 80% margin, and they announced $75B in 2026 shareholder returns.
The breakdown 👇
•Op profit: $62.8B vs $58B est (+632% YoY)
•Rev: $78.8B vs $74B est (+328% YoY)
•Net profit: $30.0B vs $41B est (miss)
•HBM4: set to pass HBM3E in volume and revenue in Q4
•Stock: +1.54% AH after rising 2% into the print.
They expect demand above supply through 2030, with LTAs covering 50%+ of 2027–28 capacity. Q3 payout: $10.5B dividend plus a $15B buyback.
Does the payout finally close the valuation gap?
💼 I Long $SKHY | NFA
🔔 Closing Bell: AI trade runs it back
Monday looked like a one day Anthropic pop. Tuesday made it a trend, eve of the Fed.
The breakdown 👇
•Driver: Anthropic IPO lifts chips/neoclouds. $NBIS +10%, $IREN +6.7%.
•Nasdaq +1.18% | S&P +0.60% | Dow +0.03% | R2K +1.16%.
•Conf. Board: 91.7 vs 81 est, first gain in 4 months.
•Fed: 93% hold Wed; Dec hike odds 73% vs 42% a month ago.
•Oil: WTI -1.8% to $99.90 on Iran talks
•Crypto: $BTC $80.7K (+1.2%), $ETH $2,341 (+1.7%)
Breadth is narrow and the Dow lagged on $BA. Strong data + sticky inflation gives Warsh cover to stay hawkish.
Does the AI rally survive a hawkish Warsh tomorrow?
📉 $V beats, guide cools the run.
Beat + 16% dividend hike, but FY27 says growth slows.
The breakdown 👇
•EPS: $3.48 vs $3.44 est
•Rev: $12.10B vs $12.08B est
•Cross border ex EU: +14%
•FY27 EPS: low teens vs 16% in FY26
•Stock: -1% to -2% AH
Why it matters: $V ran 11% into the print while estimates stayed flat, so a beat was already priced in. A slower FY27 EPS guide at 28x forward leaves little cushion. The $4B buyback helps put a floor under it.
Buy the dip on a 16% dividend hike, or is the premium too rich heading into FY27?
📈 $HOOD beats with record revenue
Event contracts 6x'd. Crypto got halved.
The breakdown 👇
•Adj. EPS: $0.60 vs $0.56 est
•Rev: $1.42B vs $1.43B est (record)
•Event contracts: $173M (6x+); crypto -55%
•Guide: 2026 opex cap cut $25M to $2.75B
Prediction markets now out-earn crypto at Robinhood, and costs are still in check, so this quarter did not need a crypto rally. Gold subs are up 34% to 5.2M, platform assets hit $396B, and Q3 net deposits came in at $15.7B.
Is $HOOD still a crypto proxy, or is it a prediction-market play now?
Long $HOOD | NFA |
🚀 $STX smashes Q1, guides way above Street
Down 25% in a month on oversupply fears. Seagate answered with record profit and a monster guide.
The breakdown 👇
•Adj. EPS: $7.68 vs $7.42 est.
•Revenue: $4.2B vs $4.14B est.
•Margin/FCF: 57.8% gross margin, record $1.5B FCF
•Q2 guide: $4.8B rev / $9.20 EPS vs $4.53B / $8.58 est.
•Stock: +4.7% into the print after a 25% 1 month slide.
Q2 guide tops the Street by 6–7%. Oversupply bears just lost this round.
Does this end the HDD selloff, or was the beat already priced in?
💼 I Long $STX $WDC | NFA
🟢 Crypto of the Day: $MORPHO
$BTC reclaimed $80K. The real story is where DeFi deposits are flowing.
The breakdown 👇
•Price: $2.16, +1.8% 24h, outpacing $BTC +0.8%.
•Bitso: new Bóvedas route USDC yield to Morpho vaults.
•Robinhood Chain: lends Stock Tokens via Morpho.
•TVL: $11.4B, +2.7% while Aave and Lido slipped.
•Morpho Midnight: fixed-rate lending passed $100M.
•Key level: $2.30 supply zone overhead.
Why it matters: price is lagging adoption. LatAm retail and tokenized stocks are landing while the Fed keeps traders on the sidelines.
Does $MORPHO test $2.30 once the Fed is out of the way?
🔦 Stock of the Day: $GLW
Corning beat on EPS and revenue, guided to 19% growth, and popped premarket. Then the stock went flat.
The breakdown 👇
•Core EPS: $0.91 vs $0.88 est.
•Revenue: $5.08B vs $5.02B est.
•Optical: +44% to $2.38B, Gen AI sales more than doubled
•Q4 guide: $0.96–$1.00 EPS, 19% sales growth
•Stock: +3% premarket, faded to flat near $128
Fiber is the plumbing of AI data centers, and Corning just signed multibillion dollar deals with Verizon and AT&T. The market wants more than a beat.
Sell the news, or a setup for patient money?
🚨 $NVDA is buying into $META
Nvidia is writing a $3B check into Meta's equity raise, turning its biggest chip customer into a portfolio holding.
The breakdown 👇
•Stake: $3B into Meta's stock offering.
•Raise: up to $95B total; $35B underwritten + $60B ATM.
•Pricing: common upsized to $25B at $625/sh.
•Partnership: expanded work on Muse models + agents.
•Hardware: more Vera Rubin, Vera CPUs, Spectrum X, BlueField 4.
•Suppliers: $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO signaled interest in up to $5B combined.
⚠️ Offerings expected to close Oct 29.
Why it matters: Nvidia is helping fund the capex that flows right back into its own GPUs.
💳 $PYPL beats on profit, misses on sales
EPS +8%, revenue just +2%. Buybacks are doing the heavy lifting.
The breakdown 👇
•EPS: $1.45 vs $1.31 est
•Rev: $8.58B vs $8.71B est
•TPV: $487B, +6% YoY
•FY26 EPS guide: $5.60 vs $5.38 prior
•Stock: -1.3% premarket at $54.21
Why it matters: $1.5B of buybacks shrank the share count while active accounts grew under 1% to 440M, and Q3 free cash flow fell 17%. PayPal is engineering EPS faster than it's growing the business.
☕ Morning Brief: Futures green, oil dips, Fed day 1
Monday's AI bounce is holding. Now the Fed has to talk without breaking it.
The breakdown 👇
•Futures: S&P +0.3% | Dow +0.3% | Nasdaq 100 +0.5%
•10Y: 4.99%
•Oil: WTI $101 | Brent $114
•Crypto: $BTC $79.9K -0.04% 24h | $ETH $2,318 -0.04% 24h
•Catalysts: $KO beat, raised guide | $BA rev beat | Fed decision Wed 2pm ET
•Risk: 90% odds of a hold, but a Dec hike is still live.
Why it matters: The pause is priced. Warsh's tone and oil decide whether yields break 5%.
Does Warsh sound hawkish enough to push the 10Y above 5%?
💼 Long $GOOGL $AMZN $HOOD | NFA
✈️ $BA Q3: Loss widens, cash beats
Cash came in ahead of plan. Profits didn't, and the turnaround still costs money.
The breakdown 👇
•Core EPS: -$0.34 vs -$0.21 est
•Revenue: $24.19B vs $24.28B est
•BCA: $10.7B rev, -6.5% margin
•Guide: FY FCF $1–3B, call 10:30 ET
•Stock: up premarket at $189.31
FCF of $464M beat the $325M est and backlog hit a record $745B. The commercial side still loses money as 737/787 ramp costs bite.
Which matters more to you: the EPS miss or the cash beat?
🥤 $KO beats and raises across the board.
Volume +5% with price/mix only +1%. Coke is growing on demand, not price hikes.
The breakdown 👇
•EPS: $0.91 vs $0.88 est
•Rev: $13.4B vs $12.9B est
•Coke Zero Sugar: +16%
•FY26 EPS guide: 11%+ vs 9–10% prior
•Stock: +0.4% premarket
Why it matters: LatAm organic rev +16% and FCF guide lifted to $13B+. But North America volume was flat, so the beat is coming from overseas while the home market stalls.
📈 $SOFI beats and raises again
Rev +44%, record members. Stock -44% YTD.
The breakdown 👇
•EPS: $0.18 vs $0.17 est
•Rev: $1.37B vs $1.25B est
•Members: 17.1M, +35% YoY
•FY26 rev: $5.04B vs $4.8B prior
Why it matters: a record 1.2M members added, products +44% to 26.7M, EBITDA +70% to $470M (34% margin), and the 2027 outlook calls for $0.90 EPS. But the FY26 EPS guide held at $0.61. Revenue is outrunning profit for now.
Is this the reset bulls wanted, or does rate risk still cap it?
🔥 $GLW Q3: AI fiber shifts up a gear
Beat, and a Q4 guide above Street. $GLW still fell on its last 3 prints.
The breakdown 👇
•Adj. EPS: $0.91 vs $0.88 est.
•Rev: $5.08B vs $5.02B est.
•Optical: $2.38B (+44% YoY)
•Q4 EPS guide: $0.96–1.00, above est.
Why it matters: Gen AI sales doubled, Enterprise +84%, core op margin hit 22.7%, and Verizon + AT&T deals landed. Q4 midpoint annualizes to $21B, past the $20B target.
Does the market finally reward a Corning beat, or sell the news again?
🏥 $CNC crushes Q3, lifts the guide
Beat by 6x, raised the outlook, stock still red premarket.
The breakdown 👇
•Adj. EPS: $0.58 vs $0.10 est.
•Rev: $50.65B vs $47.11B est.
•Medicare rev: +20% Y/Y to $11.26B
•FY26 EPS guide: >$5.20 (was >$4.80)
•Stock: -2% premarket
Medicare did the heavy lifting while Marketplace members fell 42% Y/Y to 3.4M. The guide raise is real, but the core book is still shrinking. Medical cost ratio held at 92.7%, slightly better than est. Debt down $1.1B since June.
📦 $UPS beats and raises, again.
The Street cut estimates 6% in 90 days. UPS raised its guide anyway.
The breakdown 👇
•EPS: $1.69 adj. vs $1.63 est.
•Rev: $22.9B vs $22.29B est.
•Supply Chain: +18.2% rev
•FY26 guide: $92.6B rev, $7.28 EPS
•Stock: +2% premarket
Why it matters: the Amazon glide down is done. Revenue grew in all 3 segments, the FY guide jumped $1.4B, and EPS beat for a 5th straight quarter. Premium mix is driving it, not just cost cuts.
$ETH lost $2,350. Now what?
A bearish chart, ETF money leaving, and a delayed upgrade, all heading into Fed week.
The breakdown 👇
•Price: $2,320, broke $2,350 neckline
•Pattern: head and shoulders continuation.
•RSI: 34, nearing oversold.
•Support: $2,280 weekend low.
•Reclaim: back above $2,350 voids the setup.
•ETF flows: -$198M this week, -$1B+ in Oct.
•Glamsterdam testnet pushed to November.
Why it matters: oversold RSI can spark a bounce, but without ETF demand or a catalyst, sellers stay in control until $2,350 is back.
Bounce from $2,280 or flush lower first?
Long $ETH | NFA
🔔 Closing Bell: Gas mega deal + AI bounce.
Friday priced an AI funding scare. Monday, a $50B gas merger and Anthropic's IPO filing flipped it.
The breakdown 👇
•Deal: $EQT buys $RRC, $13B all stock
•$EQT -1.4% | $RRC +17%
•S&P 500: 7,676.80 (+0.70%)
•Nasdaq: 26,169.38 (+0.82%)
•Dow: 52,361.52 (+0.28%) | R2K +0.43%.
•Fed: 10% Oct hike odds vs 54% a month ago.
•WTI $101.55 (-1.7%) | 10Y 4.99%
•$BTC $79.8K (-0.7%) | $ETH $2.3K (-1%)
Why it matters: America's biggest gas producer is a bet on LNG and AI data center power. Wall St just priced the electrons behind the AI trade.
Acquirer or target: which would you own?
🏗️ $NUE Q3: Profit more than doubles
EPS a hair light, but above its $5.55–5.65 guide.
The breakdown 👇
•EPS: $5.80 vs $5.84 est
•Rev: $11.25B vs $10.84B est, +32% YoY
•Steel mills: $1.79B pre tax, +125% YoY
•Q4 guide: in line to modestly up vs Q3
Why it matters: steel prices are up 19% YoY and shipments up 12%, so pricing power is back. Nucor bought back stock at $247, returned $629M this quarter, and fired up its new West Virginia mill. Raw materials was the one soft spot, with earnings down 28% QoQ.
$WHR Q3: Loss, miss, guide cut
Expected a profit. Got a loss.
The breakdown 👇
•Adj. EPS: -$0.21 vs $0.80 est
•Rev: $3.68B vs $3.94B est, -8.8% YoY
•N. America: sales -8.3%, 3.0% margin
•FY guide: -$1.30 adj. EPS loss
•Stock: -5.9% to $26.45, near 52w low
Why it matters: housing is frozen, so nobody's buying new appliances. YTD free cash flow is -$1.1B and there's no Q3 dividend. Small appliances (18.6% margin) are the one bright spot. The bull case rests on cost cuts and a $300M FCF target to pay down debt.





















