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Joined August 2018
📆 Notable Earnings Week: Oct 26–30th, 2026. $10.9T of Big Tech reports on the same 2 days as the Fed. The breakdown 👇 • $MSFT Wed AMC: Azure guided 45%, EPS est $4.71 • $GOOGL Wed AMC: Cloud +82% last Q, EPS est $2.94 • $AMZN Thu AMC: $197–202B sales guide, EPS est $2.01 Supporting cast: • $RMBS Mon AMC: kicks off the AI chip prints. • $HOOD Tue AMC: retail + crypto volumes, est $0.55. • $STX Tue AMC: HDD pricing, est $7.17 vs $2.51 YoY. • $VRT Wed BMO: AI data center power, est $1.82. • $SNDK Thu AMC: est $45.22 vs $0.90 a year ago. • $COIN Thu AMC: est -$0.18 vs $1.44 a year ago. Macro: Fed decision Wed 2pm ET, Q3 GDP Thu 8:30am ET. Also on deck: $LLY, $V, $XOM, $CVX. Why it matters: after this week's chip selloff, hyperscaler capex guides decide if the AI trade gets its footing back.
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🚀 $SKHY Q3: record $78.8B quarter Operating profit beat by 8% at an 80% margin, and they announced $75B in 2026 shareholder returns. The breakdown 👇 •Op profit: $62.8B vs $58B est (+632% YoY) •Rev: $78.8B vs $74B est (+328% YoY) •Net profit: $30.0B vs $41B est (miss) •HBM4: set to pass HBM3E in volume and revenue in Q4 •Stock: +1.54% AH after rising 2% into the print. They expect demand above supply through 2030, with LTAs covering 50%+ of 2027–28 capacity. Q3 payout: $10.5B dividend plus a $15B buyback. Does the payout finally close the valuation gap? 💼 I Long $SKHY | NFA
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🔔 Closing Bell: AI trade runs it back Monday looked like a one day Anthropic pop. Tuesday made it a trend, eve of the Fed. The breakdown 👇 •Driver: Anthropic IPO lifts chips/neoclouds. $NBIS +10%, $IREN +6.7%. •Nasdaq +1.18% | S&P +0.60% | Dow +0.03% | R2K +1.16%. •Conf. Board: 91.7 vs 81 est, first gain in 4 months. •Fed: 93% hold Wed; Dec hike odds 73% vs 42% a month ago. •Oil: WTI -1.8% to $99.90 on Iran talks •Crypto: $BTC $80.7K (+1.2%), $ETH $2,341 (+1.7%) Breadth is narrow and the Dow lagged on $BA. Strong data + sticky inflation gives Warsh cover to stay hawkish. Does the AI rally survive a hawkish Warsh tomorrow?
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📉 $V beats, guide cools the run. Beat + 16% dividend hike, but FY27 says growth slows. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $3.48 vs $3.44 est •Rev: $12.10B vs $12.08B est •Cross border ex EU: +14% •FY27 EPS: low teens vs 16% in FY26 •Stock: -1% to -2% AH Why it matters: $V ran 11% into the print while estimates stayed flat, so a beat was already priced in. A slower FY27 EPS guide at 28x forward leaves little cushion. The $4B buyback helps put a floor under it. Buy the dip on a 16% dividend hike, or is the premium too rich heading into FY27?
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📈 $HOOD beats with record revenue Event contracts 6x'd. Crypto got halved. The breakdown 👇 •Adj. EPS: $0.60 vs $0.56 est •Rev: $1.42B vs $1.43B est (record) •Event contracts: $173M (6x+); crypto -55% •Guide: 2026 opex cap cut $25M to $2.75B Prediction markets now out-earn crypto at Robinhood, and costs are still in check, so this quarter did not need a crypto rally. Gold subs are up 34% to 5.2M, platform assets hit $396B, and Q3 net deposits came in at $15.7B. Is $HOOD still a crypto proxy, or is it a prediction-market play now? Long $HOOD | NFA |
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🚀 $STX smashes Q1, guides way above Street Down 25% in a month on oversupply fears. Seagate answered with record profit and a monster guide. The breakdown 👇 •Adj. EPS: $7.68 vs $7.42 est. •Revenue: $4.2B vs $4.14B est. •Margin/FCF: 57.8% gross margin, record $1.5B FCF •Q2 guide: $4.8B rev / $9.20 EPS vs $4.53B / $8.58 est. •Stock: +4.7% into the print after a 25% 1 month slide. Q2 guide tops the Street by 6–7%. Oversupply bears just lost this round. Does this end the HDD selloff, or was the beat already priced in? 💼 I Long $STX $WDC | NFA
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🟢 Crypto of the Day: $MORPHO $BTC reclaimed $80K. The real story is where DeFi deposits are flowing. The breakdown 👇 •Price: $2.16, +1.8% 24h, outpacing $BTC +0.8%. •Bitso: new Bóvedas route USDC yield to Morpho vaults. •Robinhood Chain: lends Stock Tokens via Morpho. •TVL: $11.4B, +2.7% while Aave and Lido slipped. •Morpho Midnight: fixed-rate lending passed $100M. •Key level: $2.30 supply zone overhead. Why it matters: price is lagging adoption. LatAm retail and tokenized stocks are landing while the Fed keeps traders on the sidelines. Does $MORPHO test $2.30 once the Fed is out of the way?
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🔦 Stock of the Day: $GLW Corning beat on EPS and revenue, guided to 19% growth, and popped premarket. Then the stock went flat. The breakdown 👇 •Core EPS: $0.91 vs $0.88 est. •Revenue: $5.08B vs $5.02B est. •Optical: +44% to $2.38B, Gen AI sales more than doubled •Q4 guide: $0.96–$1.00 EPS, 19% sales growth •Stock: +3% premarket, faded to flat near $128 Fiber is the plumbing of AI data centers, and Corning just signed multibillion dollar deals with Verizon and AT&T. The market wants more than a beat. Sell the news, or a setup for patient money?
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🚨 $NVDA is buying into $META Nvidia is writing a $3B check into Meta's equity raise, turning its biggest chip customer into a portfolio holding. The breakdown 👇 •Stake: $3B into Meta's stock offering. •Raise: up to $95B total; $35B underwritten + $60B ATM. •Pricing: common upsized to $25B at $625/sh. •Partnership: expanded work on Muse models + agents. •Hardware: more Vera Rubin, Vera CPUs, Spectrum X, BlueField 4. •Suppliers: $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO signaled interest in up to $5B combined. ⚠️ Offerings expected to close Oct 29. Why it matters: Nvidia is helping fund the capex that flows right back into its own GPUs.
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💳 $PYPL beats on profit, misses on sales EPS +8%, revenue just +2%. Buybacks are doing the heavy lifting. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $1.45 vs $1.31 est •Rev: $8.58B vs $8.71B est •TPV: $487B, +6% YoY •FY26 EPS guide: $5.60 vs $5.38 prior •Stock: -1.3% premarket at $54.21 Why it matters: $1.5B of buybacks shrank the share count while active accounts grew under 1% to 440M, and Q3 free cash flow fell 17%. PayPal is engineering EPS faster than it's growing the business.
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☕ Morning Brief: Futures green, oil dips, Fed day 1 Monday's AI bounce is holding. Now the Fed has to talk without breaking it. The breakdown 👇 •Futures: S&P +0.3% | Dow +0.3% | Nasdaq 100 +0.5% •10Y: 4.99% •Oil: WTI $101 | Brent $114 •Crypto: $BTC $79.9K -0.04% 24h | $ETH $2,318 -0.04% 24h •Catalysts: $KO beat, raised guide | $BA rev beat | Fed decision Wed 2pm ET •Risk: 90% odds of a hold, but a Dec hike is still live. Why it matters: The pause is priced. Warsh's tone and oil decide whether yields break 5%. Does Warsh sound hawkish enough to push the 10Y above 5%? 💼 Long $GOOGL $AMZN $HOOD | NFA
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✈️ $BA Q3: Loss widens, cash beats Cash came in ahead of plan. Profits didn't, and the turnaround still costs money. The breakdown 👇 •Core EPS: -$0.34 vs -$0.21 est •Revenue: $24.19B vs $24.28B est •BCA: $10.7B rev, -6.5% margin •Guide: FY FCF $1–3B, call 10:30 ET •Stock: up premarket at $189.31 FCF of $464M beat the $325M est and backlog hit a record $745B. The commercial side still loses money as 737/787 ramp costs bite. Which matters more to you: the EPS miss or the cash beat?
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🥤 $KO beats and raises across the board. Volume +5% with price/mix only +1%. Coke is growing on demand, not price hikes. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $0.91 vs $0.88 est •Rev: $13.4B vs $12.9B est •Coke Zero Sugar: +16% •FY26 EPS guide: 11%+ vs 9–10% prior •Stock: +0.4% premarket Why it matters: LatAm organic rev +16% and FCF guide lifted to $13B+. But North America volume was flat, so the beat is coming from overseas while the home market stalls.
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📈 $SOFI beats and raises again Rev +44%, record members. Stock -44% YTD. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $0.18 vs $0.17 est •Rev: $1.37B vs $1.25B est •Members: 17.1M, +35% YoY •FY26 rev: $5.04B vs $4.8B prior Why it matters: a record 1.2M members added, products +44% to 26.7M, EBITDA +70% to $470M (34% margin), and the 2027 outlook calls for $0.90 EPS. But the FY26 EPS guide held at $0.61. Revenue is outrunning profit for now. Is this the reset bulls wanted, or does rate risk still cap it?
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🔥 $GLW Q3: AI fiber shifts up a gear Beat, and a Q4 guide above Street. $GLW still fell on its last 3 prints. The breakdown 👇 •Adj. EPS: $0.91 vs $0.88 est. •Rev: $5.08B vs $5.02B est. •Optical: $2.38B (+44% YoY) •Q4 EPS guide: $0.96–1.00, above est. Why it matters: Gen AI sales doubled, Enterprise +84%, core op margin hit 22.7%, and Verizon + AT&T deals landed. Q4 midpoint annualizes to $21B, past the $20B target. Does the market finally reward a Corning beat, or sell the news again?
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🏥 $CNC crushes Q3, lifts the guide Beat by 6x, raised the outlook, stock still red premarket. The breakdown 👇 •Adj. EPS: $0.58 vs $0.10 est. •Rev: $50.65B vs $47.11B est. •Medicare rev: +20% Y/Y to $11.26B •FY26 EPS guide: >$5.20 (was >$4.80) •Stock: -2% premarket Medicare did the heavy lifting while Marketplace members fell 42% Y/Y to 3.4M. The guide raise is real, but the core book is still shrinking. Medical cost ratio held at 92.7%, slightly better than est. Debt down $1.1B since June.
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📦 $UPS beats and raises, again. The Street cut estimates 6% in 90 days. UPS raised its guide anyway. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $1.69 adj. vs $1.63 est. •Rev: $22.9B vs $22.29B est. •Supply Chain: +18.2% rev •FY26 guide: $92.6B rev, $7.28 EPS •Stock: +2% premarket Why it matters: the Amazon glide down is done. Revenue grew in all 3 segments, the FY guide jumped $1.4B, and EPS beat for a 5th straight quarter. Premium mix is driving it, not just cost cuts.
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$ETH lost $2,350. Now what? A bearish chart, ETF money leaving, and a delayed upgrade, all heading into Fed week. The breakdown 👇 •Price: $2,320, broke $2,350 neckline •Pattern: head and shoulders continuation. •RSI: 34, nearing oversold. •Support: $2,280 weekend low. •Reclaim: back above $2,350 voids the setup. •ETF flows: -$198M this week, -$1B+ in Oct. •Glamsterdam testnet pushed to November. Why it matters: oversold RSI can spark a bounce, but without ETF demand or a catalyst, sellers stay in control until $2,350 is back. Bounce from $2,280 or flush lower first? Long $ETH | NFA
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🔔 Closing Bell: Gas mega deal + AI bounce. Friday priced an AI funding scare. Monday, a $50B gas merger and Anthropic's IPO filing flipped it. The breakdown 👇 •Deal: $EQT buys $RRC, $13B all stock •$EQT -1.4% | $RRC +17% •S&P 500: 7,676.80 (+0.70%) •Nasdaq: 26,169.38 (+0.82%) •Dow: 52,361.52 (+0.28%) | R2K +0.43%. •Fed: 10% Oct hike odds vs 54% a month ago. •WTI $101.55 (-1.7%) | 10Y 4.99% •$BTC $79.8K (-0.7%) | $ETH $2.3K (-1%) Why it matters: America's biggest gas producer is a bet on LNG and AI data center power. Wall St just priced the electrons behind the AI trade. Acquirer or target: which would you own?
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🏗️ $NUE Q3: Profit more than doubles EPS a hair light, but above its $5.55–5.65 guide. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $5.80 vs $5.84 est •Rev: $11.25B vs $10.84B est, +32% YoY •Steel mills: $1.79B pre tax, +125% YoY •Q4 guide: in line to modestly up vs Q3 Why it matters: steel prices are up 19% YoY and shipments up 12%, so pricing power is back. Nucor bought back stock at $247, returned $629M this quarter, and fired up its new West Virginia mill. Raw materials was the one soft spot, with earnings down 28% QoQ.
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$WHR Q3: Loss, miss, guide cut Expected a profit. Got a loss. The breakdown 👇 •Adj. EPS: -$0.21 vs $0.80 est •Rev: $3.68B vs $3.94B est, -8.8% YoY •N. America: sales -8.3%, 3.0% margin •FY guide: -$1.30 adj. EPS loss •Stock: -5.9% to $26.45, near 52w low Why it matters: housing is frozen, so nobody's buying new appliances. YTD free cash flow is -$1.1B and there's no Q3 dividend. Small appliances (18.6% margin) are the one bright spot. The bull case rests on cost cuts and a $300M FCF target to pay down debt.
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