The U.S. Institute of Peace’s Iran Primer brings together 50 top experts on Iran’s politics, economy, military, foreign policy, and nuclear program.
Washington, DC
Joined August 2011
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Iran Primer retweeted
I believe the biggest loss for the Islamic Republic of #Iran was not Raisi's death, but losing Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. As I briefly discussed in a piece I wrote for @IranPrimer in 2021, the conservative-leaning diplomat reportedly had ties to the IRGC, but his long tenure at the foreign ministry (1997-2016) demonstrated that his national security orientation trumps any fixed political alliances.
Prior to his position as the country's Foreign Minister under the Raisi administration. He served in senior roles under three different presidents, reformist Mohammad Khatami, hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and centrist Hassan Rouhani. iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
Told @IranPrimer that Raisi's visit to China has been "heavy on symbolism but short on substance, at least based on public announcements" without any "big-ticket investments or projects...which fits a pattern that has long frustrated Iranian officials."
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
Energy shortfalls are one of the risks I flagged in @IranPrimer for Iran's economy in 2023.
"Iran experienced a similar shortage last winter, but amid the ongoing nationwide protests, disruptions in 2023 could be more politically sensitive."
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Households in #Iran have been told by the regime to turn down heating, wear warmer clothes and use thicker curtains as the gas-producing country struggles to meet record levels of domestic demand for the fuel. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Iran Primer retweeted
Interesting stat: In recent months, Iran's export of industrial goods apparently increased 30%, which yielded for the first time a positive trade balance for Iran.
For context of how remarkable that is, two charts re Iran-Russia trade from @IranPrimer iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
Russian competition continues to cut into Iranian crude oil exports in Asia. I detailed this dynamic and other ways the economic competition has grown between Moscow and Tehran earlier this summer for @IranPrimer 👇 #oott
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran’s oil exports have fallen in recent months amid increased competition from Russia in the key market of Asia, sources say trib.al/PN7ZXs1
Iran Primer retweeted
Even as Russia-Iran security and political ties strengthen, the economic competition has intensified, as this piece underscores. I outlined the dynamic last month in @IranPrimer 👇
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202… #oott
#Iran increased its oil exports in June and July and could raise them further this month by offering a deeper discount to Russian crude for its main buyer #China, firms tracking the flows said. #OOTT
reuters.com/business/energy/…
Iran Primer retweeted
Great read by @iranprimer on the sweeping crackdown on dissent in #Iran: iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202….
Iran Primer retweeted
Iran has said trade with Russia will grow to $40bn/yr & Russian pledged to invest $40bn into its energy sector.
Both make for good headlines but mask a more important dynamic— intensifying economic competition between the two, as I argued in @IranPrimer.
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
#WorldWaterDay: Drought & state mismanagement of resources have left people in Iran with life-endangering water scarcity issues.
"The projections for the coming years are worse. Iran is already water bankrupt," expert @KavehMadani told @IranPrimer. iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
Tracking Iranian barrels is hard…but tracking the revenue earned is harder. I explained earlier this month in @USIP @IranPrimer
#oott
iranprimer.usip.org/index.ph…
Iran Primer retweeted
For @IranPrimer, I answered frequently asked questions about Iran's foreign reserves and why they have been a major target of US sanctions policy.
Iran's reserves remain substantial (blue), but just a fraction are readily accessible (red).
More here:
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
Abdollahian’s first tweet as FM echoes his July remarks that "The priorities of the foreign policy will be active & dynamic relations with the East & West, with special attention to all neighbors & Asia"
Read his past remarks in my piece for @IranPrimer
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
Designated defense minister Ashtiani said in his Majles confirmation hearing today that his ministry will focus on expanding Iran’s missile and UAVs capabilities
Read my @IranPrimer piece to get more context around his understanding of Iran’s future wars
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Defense Minister Ashtiani: “Future wars will be long-distanced and with reliance on speed and precise fire, and intelligence will also be more important in this field.. Our classical army can be transformed into forces & irregular groups”
@IranPrimer
3/8
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
Abdollahian said today in his Majles confirmation hearing that Iran’s Foreign Ministry is not the JCPOA’s Foreign Ministry, and signaled his intent to focus his efforts in Asia.
Read my @IranPrimer piece to get more context around his “East > West” ideas
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
A few sneak peaks into the views of Iran’s new national security team:
Foreign Minister Abdollahian: “We should prefer the East over the West and neighboring countries over distant ones to safeguard our national interests. The 21 century is the century of Asia”
@IranPrimer
1/8
Iran Primer retweeted
The Majles will start discussing Raisi’s cabinet list. Who’s on his National Security team and what are their positions? Read below or at @IranPrimer
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
A few sneak peaks into the views of Iran’s new national security team:
Foreign Minister Abdollahian: “We should prefer the East over the West and neighboring countries over distant ones to safeguard our national interests. The 21 century is the century of Asia”
@IranPrimer
1/8
Iran Primer retweeted
A few sneak peaks into the views of Iran’s new national security team:
Foreign Minister Abdollahian: “We should prefer the East over the West and neighboring countries over distant ones to safeguard our national interests. The 21 century is the century of Asia”
@IranPrimer
1/8
Raisi announced his list of cabinet ministers. Who’s on his National Security team and what are their positions?
Read my latest for @IranPrimer to see what they’ve said about Iran’s strategic posture, its foreign relations, JCPOA and the regime’s enemies
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
For @USIP @IranPrimer I look at the main political/economic issues facing Ebrahim Raisi as president.
One of Raisi's top challenges: With conservative hegemony across the gov't, no one to blame when expectations fall short of reality.
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
Ever wondered how Iran's judicial system operates?
This @IranPrimer by @hadighaemi is a great place to start learning about the intricacies of this inherently unjust system: ichri.org/30ByzCz.
Iran Primer retweeted
Latest budget performance data indicates that Iran has earned only 16% of its expected oil revenue for March-December 2020.
In @USIP @IranPrimer, I explained why simply looking at export volumes was only part of the story 👇
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
Iran Primer retweeted
ICYMI: Iranian Economy, 2020 year in review in @USIP @IranPrimer, with a recap of a year of coronavirus and sanctions and a look ahead to this year's proposed budget and economic expectations.
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/202…
