primarily described as a gainfully employed, unfortunately observant, and an emotionally diversified story teller who lives in Miami.
Brickell, Miami, FL
Joined May 2026
- Tweets5.2K
- Following474
- Followers4K
- Likes7.6K
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
Kalshi traders are looking through the October meeting to a December hike, but are not projecting a unanimous decision.
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
Every election brings new polls, headlines, and predictions.
In a free and open market, those trades bring together information from people across the country to produce a market price that updates in real time.
As new information comes in, people can change their minds. The odds change with them.
Markets tell you the odds. Voters decide the outcome.
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
"This source of information is a public good. The media cite Kalshi’s prices in areas such as technological benchmarks or entertainment, where not long ago they turned to 'experts' for analysis. The American public similarly looks to us for information. 3/4 of visitors to our website never trade"
Yes, a bet and a trade often look similar.
But how they work is fundamentally different.
A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. Prediction markets are markets, where buyers and sellers compete to discover and produce efficient prices and enable important public benefits.
What the market is about can change, but the structure doesn't.
My op-ed on prediction markets and regulation:
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
Yes, a bet and a trade often look similar.
But how they work is fundamentally different.
A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. Prediction markets are markets, where buyers and sellers compete to discover and produce efficient prices and enable important public benefits.
What the market is about can change, but the structure doesn't.
My op-ed on prediction markets and regulation:
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
Arjun’s first candidate: Mallory, a 24 y/o marketing professional from Dundalk, MD now in South Beach. I don’t think I was clear with Arjun… no fat women. Declined.
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
The NBA has partnered with Kalshi as a Preferred Prediction Market Exchange.
Official NBA data to settle trades, stronger safeguards, and NBA branding on Kalshi.
Fans come to Kalshi because open markets are a fairer way to trade basketball. Now, it’s Official.
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
Troy Jackson has a 61% chance to beat Susan Collins in the Maine Senate race, according to Kalshi traders.
But how does the volume split on Troy Jackson differ by state?
• All Americans: 61%
• Mainers: 36%
• Non-Mainers: 61%
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
Prediction markets host traders who buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting implied probabilities.
Here's how they compare with sportsbooks which set prices and act as the counterparty:
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
One of the beautiful things about prediction markets is that if you're just really good at your thing, it doesn't matter at all who you are, you can make money.
All that matters is being right.
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
WUT?
DraftKings CEO @jasonDRobins was asked about my @propublica story on problem gambling and online sports betting at the @nextpredictio yesterday. He made some comments that just aren’t true.
🧵Let’s set the record straight:
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
Tl;Dr: Trust markets… NOT pollsters
Market Signals Are An Essential Tax On Bad Information realclearmarkets.com/article…
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
Today we’re launching markets on Business Sector KPI’s.
Kalshi originally launched KPI markets to provide investors with direct exposure to the underlying events that move stocks.
If you had a thesis on Tesla’s Q4 car deliveries, instead of just buying or shorting the stock as a proxy, these markets enabled you to trade directly on the number of deliveries.
But what if your thesis isn't about a single company, but rather a broader, sector-wide trend?
If you are bullish on the adoption of robotics, delivery apps, or content streaming, you could buy a basket (ETF) of individual stocks in each sector, but in doing so, you become exposed to the external variables that influence stock prices.
Our new Sector KPI markets enable users to trade on aggregated performance.
For example, if you have a view on the mobile adoption of AI, you can now trade on the combined monthly downloads for Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok.
We have KPI markets for aggregated credit card spend, point of sale data, and foot traffic, with more to come.
These markets offer a new way to express an opinion and, of course, hedge risk.
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
Wall Street spent decades building ways for big corporations to hedge risk.
Prediction markets bring that power to small businesses.
From restaurants to farmers to tourist towns, suddenly you can insure against events no insurance company would touch.
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
The clearest explanation I’ve seen of the difference between prediction markets and sportsbooks.
Amazing how much of the media still fails to understand the basic mechanics.
🤝 Paid partnership
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
Election integrity is important. That is why is time that Congress (and state congresses) turns it attention to regulating polls. Not prediction markets, polls. (1/n)
politico.com/news/2026/10/22…
Brickell Finance Guy retweeted
this scene permanently changed how I take my pants off
🤝 Paid partnership
