Geopolitical Intelligence & Early Warnings • Regional Security & Global Terrorism •

Israel
Joined September 2019
Election predictions First, Netanyahu: 80% chance that Bibi loses the election. He lost votes after Oct 7, the only question is how many. So who's Israel's next PM? 50-60% that it's Eisenkot. Bennett is also a possibility, but less likely. Dramatic day in Israel coming up.
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Who will win the Israeli election? My own prediction coming up later.
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Israeli defense source: Growing likelihood that Iran will launch a preemptive attack on Israel (via @Doron_Kadosh )
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Dramatic clash between PM Netanyahu and IDF Chief Zamir over Iran: Bibi apparently ordered some kind of military action, Zamir requested further discussion fearing military conflict vs Iran at this highly sensitive time (Israeli election is in 2 days) via N12 News
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2 days to the election: Israeli forces are on high alert on all fronts in case enemies try to disrupt the vote. IDF has eyes on Gaza & West Bank, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen.
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IDF is launching massive military exercise in central and northern Israel Sunday; army will mobilize 4 divisions, Air Force will also take part; forces will test response to suprise attack on Israel.
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Russia is evacuating nuclear scientists from Iran, according to Iranian reports, says @ElmasDean Another indication that major fighting is expected to resume in the Middle East.
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Israeli defense source: Under any attack scenario, US and Israel will strike in Iran together (Kan News) US needs Israeli air power and execution ability for an effective attack.
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US warships in Mideast prep for renewed strike ops in Iran; large delivery of missiles and bombs received, Wall Street Journal reports.
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Senior IDF sources: No reason for Israeli strike in Iran before the Oct 27 election, unless we detect Iranian prep to fire missiles. via @YehoshuaYosi
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Iran estimates that a war vs US and Israel is certain, and that Israel will strike first, possibly within days (N12 News)
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US sources: Dozens of Israeli fighter jets approached Iran border this week, N12 News reports; Jerusalem updated Washington in advance; unclear if this was a warning message or an attempt to trigger an Iranian response and resume the war.
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Israel planned to strike Iran on October 10 weekend but Trump stopped it, Financial Times reports. IDF intended to attack nuclear facilities, regime sites energy assets.
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PM Netanyahu: Next US president may be very hostile to Israel. This means Israel should build other alliances. Bibi notes India and Latin America as possible alternatives (Ynet)
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Israeli Air Force is on standby for immediate response to potential Iranian attack, says military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai; IDF advises Netanyahu not to strike for now, as Israel's defense industry continues to produce more interceptors, munitions, UAVs for next conflict (Ynet)
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Massive financial crisis in Iran forces terror groups across the Middle East to send money back to Tehran, says US CENTCOM chief (N12 News)
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Israeli defense chiefs hold meeting to discuss possible military clash vs. Iran, Kan News reports. Israel sees no urgent reason to strike, N12 News reports.
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Israeli defense company Rafael unveils SkySonic interceptor against hypersonic missiles. Full details and capabilities remain classified.
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Israel is closely watching Iranian missile and UAV tests in recent days; Israeli defense official: We're taking steps to ensure we're not hit with a surprise attack (Kan News)
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Western intel indicates that Iran is making "new and extreme military moves" (N12 News)
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