📈 Microcap hunter with systems level view of Canada’s resource economy, low tolerance for institutional theater, self aware outsider with a sense of humour.
Canada
Joined May 2021
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JGGCDN retweeted
Crazy that advisors and advisory firms did not have to report total fees for Canadians. 20 years in the making.
Advisors and advisory firms in Canada do not have to report all of the fees that their clients pay. Crazy eh? But that's about to change, it took regulators 20 years. 😳
Canadian investors will begin to receive charges and compensation data in their statements that reflect the new rules introduced under total cost reporting (TCR, also known as the third phase of the client relationship model, or CRM3), effective Jan. 1, 2027.
There, in black and white, they’ll see the dollar amount of all costs associated with the funds they hold in their portfolios – including the fund expense ratio, advisor compensation, sales charges, account or administrative fees and recordkeeping fees, as well as the percentage cost of every fund.
It's just unimagineable that regulators have allowed advisors and firms to send year end statement that do not disclose total fees. You could say it was within the regulations to hide fees. Now you know who the regulators work for - the industry and mutual fund providers.
Canadians pay some of the highest investment fees in the world. Most Canadians don't know that, of course. Most don't know what they pay in fees. I hope more Canadians open the statements and know how to read them. I hope they can put two and two together. They need to leave the high fees fund and their fund salesperson behind. @JonChevreau @MoneySense
theglobeandmail.com/investin…
June 2025 call on Canadian defence names
$FTG.TO +184%
$DXT.TO +115%
$CGY.TO +82%
$MAL.TO +75%
$CLS.TO +70%
$MDA.TO +28%
$PNG.V +20%
$CAE.TO +8%
$TVK.TO –35%
Canada’s Defense Surge: TSX Stocks in the Defence boom.
June 2025, and Canada’s recalibrating its future with a hefty pivot. Ottawa’s corridors buzz with purpose, defense spending is set to hit 5% of GDP by 2035, unlocking $150 billion annually, $105 billion for military tech like drones, submarines, Arctic surveillance, and $45 billion for infrastructure, from critical mineral mines to next gen telecom networks.
Add to that Canada’s new role in the EU Defense Agreement, a digital bridge to European R&D and procurement markets. This isn’t just bureaucracy, it’s potentially a coded blueprint for economic transformation. A cadre of TSX listed defense and industrial stocks: $FTG.TO, $PNG.V, $CLS.TO, $CGY.TO, $CAE.TO, $MAL.TO, $MDA.TO, $TVK.TO, $DXT.TO are plugged into this grid, poised to harness the surge.
Firan Technology Group ($FTG.TO) Etching circuit boards and cockpit panels for fighter jets. They’re feeding global defense giants. Canada’s AI and cyber push, plus EU supply chains, will light up their niche.
Kraken Robotics ($PNG.V): Sonar and underwater drones prowling Arctic depths like digital orcas.
Celestica ($CLS.TO) is the corporate IT department, churning out electronics for Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. They’re the cloud server of this story, scalable and steady. Infrastructure cash for telecom and AI defense systems, plus EU procurement, keeps their uptime solid.
Calian Group ($CGY.TO) is the sysadmin, running training sims, cybersecurity, and satcom for soldiers and spooks. Canada’s recruitment drive and cyber paranoia feed their pipeline, while EU secure comms deals could ping their exports.
CAE Inc. ($CAE.TO) is the VR guru, building flight sims that train pilots like a first person shooter. Canada’s pilot shortage and NATO’s virtual boot camps make CAE a high score leader. EU training contracts? They’re already speed running that level.
Magellan Aerospace ($MAL.TO) is the old school machinist, milling jet engines and drone frames. If Canada ditches F-35s for homegrown or Euro jets, Magellan’s lathes will hum, though U.S. trade static could jam their gears.
MDA Ltd. ($MDA.TO) could be launching satellites and radar to watch the Arctic like a cosmic CCTV.
TerraVest Industries ($TVK.TO) and Dexterra Group ($DXT.TO) are the gig economy grunts. TerraVest’s tanks and vessels may fuel critical mineral mines and energy grids tied to infrastructure bucks. Dexterra’s camp services keep Arctic bases fed and warm, like UberEats for soldiers. They’re not sexy, but they invoice quietly.
This is Canada’s defense boom, a generative AI spitting out cashflows in a post ironic world. Celestica and CAE are the blue chips, Kraken and Firan the smallcap's, TerraVest and Dexterra the picks and shovels.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
JGGCDN retweeted
D-Box Technologies ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️(downgraded) FINS Review:
$DBO.TO
"Spoiler alert - the lede of the news release was on gross margin, so that’s not a good sign."
#FinsDontLie (no paywall)
Every Remembrance Day my mind goes back to Engbrecht & Gillanders of the RCAF.
Gillanders, a 4th generation British Columbian from Vancouver. Signed up in ’42 thinking he’d be a radio technician. They turned him into a gunner instead.
In the rear turret of those 424 Squadron Halifaxes, him & Engbrecht became the most successful gunnery team the RCAF ever had.
The pair accounted for 9 confirmed, 2 probable. Gillanders earned the DFM, Engbrecht the CGM for it.
Gillanders came home & just carried it. Never really talked about what he’d seen or done.
A kid from BC who only wanted to fix radios, sitting in that rear turret night after night so the rest of them could get home. That’s the part that stays with me.
3
14
599
Lest we forget.
Photo (Left to right):
Engbrecht & Gillanders
- RCAF Air Gunners
bombercommandmuseumarchives.…
Jim Keys
- An American in the RCAF
bombercommandmuseumarchives.…
Every Remembrance Day my mind goes back to Engbrecht & Gillanders of the RCAF.
Gillanders, a 4th generation British Columbian from Vancouver. Signed up in ’42 thinking he’d be a radio technician. They turned him into a gunner instead.
In the rear turret of those 424 Squadron Halifaxes, him & Engbrecht became the most successful gunnery team the RCAF ever had.
The pair account ed for 9 confirmed, 2 probable. Gillanders earned the DFM, Engbrecht the CGM for it.
Gillanders came home & just carried it. Never really talked about what he’d seen or done.
A kid from BC who only wanted to fix radios, sitting in that rear turret night after night so the rest of them could get home. That’s the part that stays with me.
There's a new version of this post
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JGGCDN retweeted
There have been many instances where luck carried a share price much higher and much faster than I expected. When that happens, I'll often sell most, if not all, of the position. I've learned that when momentum gets too far ahead of the story, it pays to respect it.
Most of the time, though, investing isn't about getting lucky. It's about getting in early enough and then having the patience to let the investment thesis breathe.
That's where the real challenge begins.
In small caps, I'm usually investing based on positive catalysts and improving financial statements. The goal isn't to predict every move. It's to give management, the business, and the thesis enough time to prove themselves. If the story continues improving, I'll stay and let the investment ride.
Ideally, I'm looking for the elevator ride to the penthouse.
At the same time, experience has taught me that every elevator goes both ways.
That's why I pay close attention to the facts as they develop. If the catalysts weaken, the financials disappoint, or a better opportunity appears elsewhere, I have no problem rebalancing. Opportunity cost is a cost too.
The trick is finding the balance between patience and discipline.
Too little patience, and you sell a future winner too early.
Too little discipline, and you ride the elevator all the way past the lobby and into the basement.
After more than three decades in small caps, I've learned that success isn't about catching every top or every bottom. It's about letting your winners breathe while making sure your safety nets keep you from falling too far when the story changes.
JGGCDN retweeted
Please share. Everyone should be as pissed off as me 🤣 ...
Active stock pickers at your CPP Canada Pension Plan lost money during robust markets - "But the strategy has struggled for years. It lost $3.5-billion in CPPIB’s 2026 fiscal years, which ended March 31, and has lost a total of $6-billion over five years." This is criminal. We'll never make it back, these are permanent losses. @JonChevreau @thedave2006 @StockTrades_CA @PassiveCndIncom @MarkMcGrathCFP @Tawcan @rcarrick Many were fired.
theglobeandmail.com/business…
JGGCDN retweeted
Active stock pickers at your CPP Canada Pension Plan lost money during robust markets - "But the strategy has struggled for years. It lost $3.5-billion in CPPIB’s 2026 fiscal years, which ended March 31, and has lost a total of $6-billion over five years." This is criminal. We'll never make it back, these are permanent losses. @JonChevreau @thedave2006 @StockTrades_CA @PassiveCndIncom @MarkMcGrathCFP @Tawcan @rcarrick Many were fired.
theglobeandmail.com/business…
JGGCDN retweeted
I spent some time volunteering on the board of the largest homelessness organization in my city. A big problem is that funding needs to be significant, and dependable over a multi-year horizon, with underperformers weeded out from the pool of receiving agencies. Biggest issue ...
The last target to cut chronic homelessness 50% by 2027 was followed by a 59% increase.
Budget 2026 now promises a 10 year path to end it with $29B & 25k supportive units (Ottawa builds, provinces fund the rest).
"Trying" without clear results still isn’t enough. Define the root causes, show the specific measures that will reverse the trend, & be judged on outcomes, not aspirations.
Supporting action doesn’t require defending approaches that have so far moved in the opposite direction.
JGGCDN retweeted
When I worked in fund management, I went through training to prepare for meetings with clients and pitching our strategy to consultants and prospects.
As I got up to speed with the presentation, something hit me.
The slide deck wasn’t really describing what we did. It was describing what we hoped to do in an ideal world, assuming reality didn’t get in the way.
I think the same thing applies to how CEOs present their companies.
What they’re describing isn’t what’s happening today. It’s what an ideal version of the business looks like, or what they’re trying to build toward in the future.
The reality behind the scenes is almost certainly far messier.
As investors, it’s worth remembering that there’s often a wide gap between the company being presented and what’s happening on the ground.
No we don’t. East Hastings is proof.
This will be more virtue signaling so the consultant & non profit class feel good while burning money that never solves it.
Our kids will be left with the debt & the housing shortage.
JGGCDN retweeted
1000s of Jensen Huangs have been ‘elite captured’ in capitals worldwide
Today we welcomed Vice Premier He Lifeng to Canada for the Canada-China Economic and Financial Strategic Dialogue. 🇨🇦🇨🇳
This visit builds on the Prime Minister's trip to China in January and our steady engagement since. We're advancing economic and trade cooperation that works for Canadian workers and businesses.
JGGCDN retweeted
It’s about understanding what needs to happen for you to earn a worthwhile return, how realistic those expectations are, and how much room you have to be wrong. -- Rose Celine Investments
In a nutshell, I agree 100%. I invested in small caps for more than 3 decades. I deal with anticipation of positive catalysts and better financial statements.
How much time is needed for me to be wrong or right? Where do I draw the line, profit or loss, rebalance and move on.
The Price of Being Right
Before buying a stock, try to explain how you could lose money even if you’re right about the company. It’s a simple question, but one that forces you to think about something a wonderful business can easily hide. How much of its future success are you already paying for?
Imagine a company earning $1 per share with a stock price of $50. Over the next five years, earnings double to $2, growing 15% annually. You understood the business correctly, management delivered, and everything went according to plan. Yet if investors are only willing to pay 25 times earnings five years later, the stock is still worth $50.
The business doubled its earnings, but your investment went nowhere. You were right about the business, but that didn’t make you any money. And this happens far more often than investors realize.
This doesn’t mean you should avoid paying a premium for wonderful businesses. Some companies can grow at extraordinary rates for decades, making what initially looks expensive turn out to be a bargain. But finding a great business is only part of the work. You still have to figure out what makes it a great investment at the price you’re paying.
Let’s take that same $50 stock and assume you want to earn 12% annually over the next five years. Your investment would need to grow to $88. If the market values the company at 25 times earnings at that point, earnings per share would need to reach $3.52. That requires 29% annual earnings growth instead of 15%.
Now you have something much more useful to think about. Can this business realistically grow earnings at 29% annually for five years? Where will that growth come from? More customers, higher prices, better margins, share repurchases, or some combination of all four?
And remember, we’re talking about earnings per share, not simply total profits. A company can grow its profits substantially while issuing so many new shares that individual shareholders receive considerably less of that growth. What matters is how much of that growing business ultimately belongs to you.
Of course, nobody knows what multiple investors will pay five years from now. That’s why I think it’s important to consider several reasonable outcomes rather than getting attached to one prediction. If your investment only works when everything goes right and investors are still willing to pay a premium five years later, you should understand just how much you’re counting on.
This is also why patience is such an enormous advantage. You can admire a business, study it for years, appreciate everything management is doing, and still decide that the price makes little sense. You don’t have to own every wonderful company you come across, and there’s nothing wrong with waiting.
I’ve always believed that valuation isn’t about coming up with an impressive price target or pretending you can predict the future. It’s about understanding what needs to happen for you to earn a worthwhile return, how realistic those expectations are, and how much room you have to be wrong.
Because being right about a business and making money from its stock are two very different things. 🌹