🤖 Head of FP&A | AI Startup 📈 MA Financial Economics 🎓 BBusSci Finance & Accounting 🌊 Fmr DA Chair (Atlantic Seaboard) 🇿🇦 Catalyst & YLP Alum
Tel Aviv, Israel
Joined January 2014
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Pinned Tweet
.@helenzille reminding media hosts that you invited the guest for the guest to be heard - not your amateur host to give a diatribe at every opportunity.
Good for her - nice to see people with a backbone in SAs political landscape once again.
Arrogant host, no class.
J Halfon retweeted
Israel's candidate for the UN audit committee (IAAC) was uncontested on a clean slate. Forcing a last-minute vote based solely on this candidate’s nationality reveals that some of our colleagues remain wedded to an ancient hatred that has infected the UN’s work for decades. After a year of working with all of you, I believe that we are better than this and ask that you demonstrate this with your vote. @AmbUNReform
J Halfon retweeted
I am not sure how Vice President Vance can square away polling with blaming the relationship with Israel for the midterm loss.
Nothing on tariffs? Nothing on deportations? Nothing on corruption? Really?
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Cometh the hour, cometh the man.
.@POTUS: "I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up... At the same time, if I had to do it again, I'd have to do it again because long-term, it's the only answer. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon."
J Halfon retweeted
The only responsible way to end the Iran war is to win it. You tried, admirably, to avoid war thru negotiations. Unfortunately, the enemy also has a vote. You can't campaign against a war from within an administration you serve. And you cannot leave this problem to the next one.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
J Halfon retweeted
Always convincing when a politician cites anonymous pollsters who confirm everything he believes and wants to run for president on.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
J Halfon retweeted
I never thought I’d see the day where @POTUS would allow anyone in his administration to undermine him but clearly that day has arrived! If you haven’t read @JDVance tweet this morning I urge you to do it! Vance lays out 4 reasons why the Republicans got walloped yesterday and of course 2 were the war and ISRAEL! I mean it wouldn’t be a Vance tweet without at least one shot directed at our best ally in the world! I met with the guy and neither Israel or @TuckerCarlson ever came up in our conversation. Why? Because he knew he couldn’t appease me on either subject. Today’s tweet from the Vice President is further proof that I could never vote for this guy for President of the United States!
All you have to do to dismantle this despicable statement that masterfully abuses ambiguity is as follows:
1) Do you stand by your administration's work on these matters?
2) Is a nuclear armed, American and democracy hating, terror supporting regime worth picking a court seat?
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
J Halfon retweeted
Dan, I am making a different point. There is this cartoonish line out there among U.S. critics of Israel that BiBi forced Trump into war with Iran (it’s especially cringey when I see Israelis use that line too). What we saw last night was Trump himself reminding everyone that the characterization is nonsense. I respect many of the disagreements with our policy on Iran but the idea that ‘Israel made us do it’ is wrong and dangerous. It was noteworthy that Trump knocked it down.
J Halfon retweeted
William Shatner had a simple Election Day message for eligible Americans — vote.
“I cannot vote because I’m not a US citizen but it’s one of the privileges of being a citizen & you should exercise your right," he wrote.
Fans applauded the actor for keeping politics out of his message: “See? That’s how you do it. Thank you, Shatner.”
While others thanked Shatner for “remaining non political,” as other fans appreciated that he “doesn’t tell you who to vote for.”
Another fan called him an example for other celebrities: “Oh my god, a celebrity who encouraged everyone to vote without filling it with their personal bias. Be like William Shatner.”
Helen is a gem - this time around in particular she has run (as far as I am aware) the singular best electoral campaign in SA's 21st century history.
I hope to see @CyrilRamaphosa award her the Order of Luthuli at the very least - for all she has contributed to SA's democracy.
Good morning, Joburg!
I’ve just voted DA on both ballots! 🗳️🇿🇦
This is Joburg’s last chance to be rescued and get back onto the path to prosperity. Today, the future of your city is in your hands. Go and vote.
#BelieveInJoburg #Zille4Mayor
Imagine the kind of desperate, disingenuous, detached lowlife you have to be to try drag foreign affairs into an election about the absolute basics such as potable water, broken roads, lights and refuse collection done.
Good on @helenzille for shutting that down.
"First learn to spell genocide." Zille has an awkward moment with a voter.
#LGE2026 #Elections2026
Lots of hindsight 20/20 analysts that got it all wrong before re US election.
Media pundits will spin their spin.
The only comment I have are as follows:
1) Texas - that should have Republicans worried - no Texas, no Presidency (barring flipping NY or CA - exactly).
... (1/X)
The Republicans handle theirs better (not perfectly but better).
The Democrats do not. This victory in Congress is now their test - the fringe gained more seats - so what is the party to become?
As EH put it in TSAR "Gradually, then suddenly".
(3/X)
J Halfon retweeted
It is regrettable that South African policies led to the termination of AGOA for South Africa. This was a predictable and preventable outcome resulting from the rejection by South Africa's government of real concerns raised by the U.S. Government. I remain hopeful that we can find a path forward to address our larger bilateral concerns, but the South African government must understand the gravity of the situation. We know that if America succeeds, so too will South Africa. This is the partnership I will continue to pursue as expeditiously as possible.
ustr.gov/about/policy-office…
