Boston born, Stanford educated, postdoc with Georgia Tech Website: https://xitter.cf/t.co/9kcRD8o7zv

Atlanta
Joined October 2011
My newest paper, The Effect of AI Writing on Governance: Evidence from a $3.5 Billion DAO, co-authored with the brilliant Victor Huang, is now live on my website and SSRN!
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A university that has been making the math work with $13,000 tuition is much better prepared for a future of more democratic and open-source knowledge than one who charges $60,000 (and rising).
Public education matters.
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Public education matters.
We've found our Niche, and it's at the top. 😉 No. 4️⃣ Top Public University in U.S. No. 4️⃣ Best College for Engineering No. 5️⃣ Best Big College No. 6️⃣ Best College for Computer Science No. 1️⃣ Best College in Georgia No. 1️⃣ Best Value College in Georgia #WeCanDoThat 🐝 Numbers from @NicheSocial 📈
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Joe Hall retweeted
Degrowth is rich people telling poor people to stay poor.
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I remain baffled by how Ariely can remain employed at Duke when Wansink (Cornell), Gino (HBS), Arday (Cambridge), Tessier-Lavigne (Stanford), and many others were fired or resigned.
There was a lot of commentary about how academic frauds get differential treatment. You know what? Let's show that this isn't the case by shaming Duke into firing Ariely.
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SSRN link: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… GitHub Repo: github.com/josephhall5959/ar… This paper was built 100% in the open! No private data, no NDA's. Excited to see what my network thinks.
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I co-sign this advice. Most of the worst mental health problems I observed in PhDs were those who went straight through without work experience. I worked for two years pre-PhD, shored up my finances, learned good habits, and got ideas from the real world
This is close to the advice I give. If you aren't thinking "I will literally die if I don't do a PhD right now" don't do it. Work for 2 years first. First, cash helps a lot: 1) if doing a PhD after taking a huge pay cut still seems attractive, you should do it. 2) not relying solely on a PhD stipend removes an insane stressor from an already stressful situation 3) if your advisor sucks, having cash on hand means you can tell them to pound sand Also, for ML/CS, being in the industry is a great way to get ideas and see what people outside academia really care about. And having job experience makes #3 easier also.
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There has been a lot of discussion sparked by the recent SEP entry on "Capitalism". The article is quite simply very ignorant about the history of economic thought. A great review below. The conflation of "equilibrium" with "efficient" is a particularly galling error.
Today I read the new Stanford Encyclopedia entry on Capitalism by @chiaracordelli. It is, simply put, a bad piece of scholarship. I will illustrate it with just one passage using one of my most popular posts ever: “A guide for students of economics: Ten statements that demonstrate that someone does not understand modern economics or what an equilibrium is, and that you can safely ignore everything else they say.” xitter.cf/JesusFerna7026/status/… I quote from the entry when it talks about Hayek and Friedman. “From all these exchanges, an “equilibrium,” perhaps a “general equilibrium,” spontaneously arises in a capitalist economy.” Compare with my explanation (which builds on the tradition of Hayek and Friedman): “Equilibrium is not meant to describe the daily state of the world. It is a conceptual device used to understand the outcome of our models under the assumptions we make.” The entry continues: “This in turn means that the factors of production that are capital and labor are employed in their most efficient proportions. Also, produced goods and services flow through markets to where, at the margin, they are most valued, making these markets efficient, too.” Compare with my explanation: “Equilibrium is often conflated with efficiency, but equilibrium merely reflects decentralized consistency, not welfare maximization. Market power, externalities, incomplete markets, nominal rigidities, and frictions routinely produce inefficient equilibria. I often teach a first-year macro graduate course, and not a single one of the equilibria I define is efficient.” The article continues: “Inherently, it has no real crisis tendencies that it cannot self-correct. Capitalism goes wrong when it is politically interfered with” Compare with my explanation: “Equilibrium is sometimes misinterpreted as a static state in which nothing evolves. In fact, many equilibria are sequences of probability distributions over states driven by shocks, policy rules, and endogenous responses. Learning dynamics (Bayesian updating, adaptive rules, experience-based expectations) can occur within equilibrium if the evolution of beliefs is self-consistent.” And finally: “Capitalism goes wrong when it is politically interfered with” Compare with my explanation: “Some interpret equilibrium as a laissez-faire concept. In fact, equilibrium analysis is the foundation of modern policy evaluation. Fiscal, monetary, and regulatory interventions work through equilibrium responses (prices, wages, interest rates, quantities) and must satisfy equilibrium conditions to be credible. Equilibrium is a tool for policy design, not a barrier to it.” None of this is deep. I knew it as an undergraduate student in college. Hayek and Friedman were subtle economists who, yes, defended market economies but who understood economics much better than the author of the entry. I recently argued that institutions waste their credibility by engaging in political activism instead of scholarship. How can I trust now the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy’s entry on Hegel, for example, if the entry on Capitalism would fail my undergraduate course at Penn?
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Why lift weights when we have forklifts? Why run when we have cars? Human capacity is developed by exercising our abilities. If we want the benefits of being strong, we must push our muscles through resistance. If we want the ability to work through difficult concepts with our own judgment, we must work our minds. Many will choose not to do so. But those who spend some time doing so will likely develop more capable and nuanced cognitive architecture.
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The more I use A.I. in my research, the stronger becomes my conviction to create spaces where we can continue to train human cognition. Pedagogically, the closed-book in-person handwritten and proctored exam is more valuable than ever!
Piece of advice: if you are a parent, watch out what the Finns are doing and copy them. It's one of the few countries that pays closer attention to their youth. They observe, study, and adjust all the time! For example, they are now gradually reversing their decade-long, tech-heavy education model to combat declining cognitive performance and severe classroom distractions. Schools are scaling back on devices in favor of printed textbooks, handwriting instruction, and pen-and-paper assignments.
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Joe Hall retweeted
While I'm grateful to see this sort of pushback, "well-intended" should not be appended when progressives cause predictable harm. The data on standardized tests was both knowable and known before people fought for their removal. The push was wrong from the beginning.
Eliminating standardized admission tests hurt low-income kids and people of color. A well-intended disaster for which those responsible should apologize, but won't.
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Joe Hall retweeted
The Alpha School heuristic is “if you’re using AI for your core academics in the morning, it’s cheating; if you’re not using AI for your afternoon projects, you’re cheating yourself.”
The right way to use AI in schools is to have sharply different policies about how much you allow it. Using AI should be encouraged in some situations and absolutely banned in others.
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Everybody either thinks this is about Iran or has noted its similarity to a prophecy of Delphi. I would just like to point out that it's clearly about Claude Mythos
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Less than a month left. Applications for the Financial Literacy Research Boot Camp at @Stanford close April 30. Early-career researchers in economics, finance, or a related field, I hope to see you there. ifdm.stanford.edu/events/fin…
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I think economists should learn from scholars of culture and social systems to correct our perceptions of how stuff like this works: the last few cases are policed by the community, from all directions. When theft is rare, it becomes *easier* to stamp out the last few thieves.
Economics: The optimal level of tax evasion, govt waste, crime, and even voter fraud is often *above* zero. (Because getting to literal zero usually requires imposing dramatically higher costs & burdens on everyone else to ensure prevention of those last, few, toughest cases.)
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I'm one of the last people on earth who will ever be able to say I completed a PhD without generative AI.
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It the "fiscal mismanagement" in the room with us right now? The plan, to be clear, is to take more of New Yorkers' money to manage in the same way as ever?
Today, I’m releasing the City’s preliminary budget. After years of fiscal mismanagement, we’re staring at a $5.4 billion budget gap — and two paths. One: Albany can raise taxes on the ultra-wealthy and the most profitable corporations and address the fiscal imbalance between our city and state. The other, a last resort: balance the budget on the backs of working people using the only tools at the City's disposal.   The first path matches a structural crisis with a sustainable and fair solution. I know where I stand. New Yorkers voted for bold change and competent leadership. We will deliver both, and we look forward to partnering with Albany to protect working New Yorkers.
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It's understandable that white men in certain industries (esp. academic humanities and the creative industries) feel resentment that their race/gender closed doors for them. But guess what—this is now a universal experience! Every non-white non-male group has also gone through this at some point! It's terrible! It's terrible for everyone who had to experience it. If your response is "because this happened I am now justified in burning the country to the ground," and every other group also thinks "because of past discrimination I am justified in burning the country to the ground," then we are all in agreement and we'll leave only ashes to our descendants. *Every* *single* *group* can now point to legitimate grievances and race/gender-based exclusion in some recent period. Some will want to argue about whose exclusion was worse and more unjust—many people have very good claims here! But that is a zero sum argument that nobody is going to win in this poisoned era. The only path forward is to put down the grievance competition, to strive for a meritocracy that is blind to race and gender, and to tear down the discriminatory barriers that still exist. It's hard to tell someone their grievances aren't legitimate. Many of them are. But if the only future you can see is "remedy for past grievances against my group", and every other group is thinking exactly the same thing, friends we aren't going to get anywhere. We need to build better institutions, but even before then we need to break out of the grievance mindset and get our energy into building.
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Understanding this is critically important for anyone in education. Unfortunately I have more questions than answers after reading this. One thing is clear: If you look at someone who completed elementary school in Mississippi post-2019, you can be assured that they can read.
How much of “Mississippi’s education miracle” is an artifact of selection bias? statmodeling.stat.columbia.e…
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Submit your paper today for the GT-FRBA Household Finance Conference! ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/janda/… Accepting submissions through November 18!
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