College Football Week 5 Full Preview 🏈 🏈❤️ USC vs Illinois (12:00 PM) Illinois is coming off a blowout loss to Indiana and faces a USC team traveling across the country for an early kick. While this could be a good spot for Illinois, the Illini defense is weakened by key injuries: star corner Xaver Scott is out, Kaleb Patterson was seen in a walking boot and on crutches last week, and Cox remains out. Jaheim Clarke and Matthew Bailey should return to help the secondary. USC boasts the top offense in the country, featuring a dynamic run game and ranking first in passing success rate and third in early-down EPA. Makai Lemon averages nearly 5 YPRR, and Waymond Jordan almost 8 YPC. Illinois' secondary ranks 100th in coverage grading. USC's defense has improved in the trenches, and the secondary now ranks second in coverage grading. Luke Altmeyer has struggled, while the Illinois offensive line is 102nd nationally in pass blocking. Under pressure, Altmeyer completes 51.9% with a PFF grade of 48.9. Illinois may find success on the ground, but overall, it is likely to generate insufficient stops. Lean Pass based on the spot, but like Lemon props Notre Dame vs Arkansas (12:00PM) Both defenses are struggling, especially against the run. Arkansas ranks 122nd in defensive rushing success rate and explosive plays allowed, and struggles to defend inside zone run concepts, with just a 40% success rate against them. Notre Dame operates inside the zone at a rate of over 40%. Jeremiyah Love averages 3.79 yards after contact per attempt, while Jadarian Price is at 3.3. CJ Carr is developing into a strong player with an 80.2 PFF passing grade and more big-time throws than turnover-worthy plays. He now faces an Arkansas defense that continues to look poor. Taylen Green will have opportunities against a Notre Dame defense that has struggled under Chris Ash. Notre Dame ranks 101st in passing success rate allowed and 87th in points allowed per drive. The Irish are 111th in coverage grading and 118th in passing explosives allowed. The Arkansas offense is 4th in success rate and 1st in early down EPA. Notre Dame struggles to defend man-blocking concepts, Arkansas’ primary run scheme, with a 35% success rate. Notre Dame expects Devonta Smith back in the secondary, but Leonard Moore will likely be out another week. The drop-off from Al Golden to Chris Ash is evident, and until a change is made, I will continue fading Notre Dame. The previous Cover 1-heavy aggressive scheme was a key to this unit’s past success, which is no longer evident. Lean over on the opening line, but currently no strong recommendation. Also lean toward Arkansas at numbers below 5.5, as low as 4. Lean Price and Green Rushing Props Omega Blake, if Leonard Moore doesn't play Rutgers vs Minnesota (12:00PM) Minnesota is coming off a bye and appears to be in a revenge spot from last year, but I'm having trouble reaching this current number. Looking at team efficiency, Rutgers' offense is 3rd nationally in quality drives, while Minnesota's offense ranks 117th. Minnesota may get back Darius Taylor, which should help against a Rutgers defense that ranks outside the top 110 in most rushing metrics and 128th overall in run defense. Lean toward passing, but would take under 51.5 based on pace. Also consider Athan quick game props. Duke vs Syracuse (12:00PM) Lean Over and Duke Syracuse can't generate any pressure or stop the run. Darian Mensah, when kept clean this season, has a 74.5% completion rate and owns a 92.6 PFF Passing Grade. Louisville vs Pittsburgh (12:00) Both teams rank in the top 30 in total defense and defensive efficiency, relying on ground-based attacks. Neither can run effectively against the other's front. Pitt has the 14th-best run defense and Louisville the 34th. You can run inside on Louisville, but Pitt's defensive line can push through Louisville's 114th-ranked run blocking, making me lean toward empty possessions. Lean Under 57 and Pitt over 4, but just a Lean Cincinnati vs Kansas (12:00PM) No strong lean here; it should be a good game. The Cincinnati Bearcats have a strong run defense, ranking 5th nationally, partly due to weak competition and the return of the godfather to the middle this year. The Bearcats now establish offense through outside zone rushes and build a passing game off it. On the other hand, Sorosby struggles under pressure. Kansas ranks in the top 35 in pressure. Sorosby is poor under pressure, completing 43.4% with a 41.4 PFF passing grade in 2024. Expect Kansas to play more coverage and force him to move the ball down the field. Would lean Kansas under 4. Iowa vs Indiana (3:30) Fernando Mendoza looks like the Heisman winner right now, with a 75.2% completion rate and an 89 PFF passing grade. Indiana's offense also ranks in the top 5 in passing success rate. Now he faces a Phil Parker defense, which has struggled in coverage, ranking 61st in coverage grading. Omar Cooper averages 3.89 YPRR and Elijah Sarett 2.37 YPRR. The Rutgers offense's performance against Iowa suggests that Indiana can achieve a similar result. Iowa struggles to stop inside zone runs, with a 39% success rate. Defensively, Indiana boasts a top-10 run defense and a strong pass rush. Iowa generated zero methodical drives vs Rutgers on 10 drives. This game is likely a repeat of Indiana vs Illinois, just a slower version. Lean Indiana - Cignetti beats up on bad teams. Washington vs Ohio State (3:30 PM) The National Champions, Ohio State, travel to Husky Stadium in a fascinating matchup of two teams. The Washington Huskies are on a 22-game home winning streak and face a team that has been slightly overrated by public perception this season. Washington's offense has been fantastic to start the season, ranking 3rd by PFF. Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston are explosive: Coleman averages 5.12 yards after contact per attempt, Boston 2.93 YPRR. The Huskies have a top-10 QB in Demond Williams. They should run effectively against an Ohio State defense ranked 89th in line yards and 118th in stuff rate. Ohio State is also 62nd in tackling. Washington has a 73% success rate on zone read concepts. The key to stopping Washington will be how Matt Patricia uses Caleb Downs; expect man coverage and two-high looks. Washington should keep scoring, but the other side is also interesting. Ryan Walters and the Washington Huskies defense primarily run Cover 1, using it at a 60% rate. (Sayin vs Cover 1 has a 44% success rate, albeit a small sample). Beating Cover 1 requires some running ability, but Ohio State's run game has declined since 2024. If Ohio State cannot run, Washington leads the country in pressure without blitzing. Sayin has a 58.6% completion rate under pressure and a 61.6 PFF Grade this season. This is Sayin's first true road game in a hostile environment. Ohio State does have receivers who can challenge Washington's defense, and they match up well in man-to-man coverage. Need Tarcario Davis to play if you play Washington. My Lean Washington Over Double Digits, Make this Game OSU -8 Jonah Coleman Rushing Props LSU at Ole-Miss (3:30) Trinidad Chambliss has looked fantastic through his first 2 starts this season, but he's taking a massive step up in competition vs a good LSU Defense. Ole Miss's offensive line is a concern here, ranking 109th in run blocking and 93rd in pass blocking. LSU grades as a top-30 defense and is 26th in EPA per Pass. Expect Baker to blitz and use Perkins as a spy; Lane may counter with zone read and quick passing to TEs and RBs. Baker has historically struggled with mobile QBs. I think the Chambliss hype comes back down this week. Ole Miss's defense is poor. LSU can't run, but anyone can against this Ole Miss front (123rd in EPA/rush, outside top 100 in line yards). Nuss will mostly see Cover 4, where he has a mediocre success rate. This is the most dynamic passing offense Ole Miss has faced, so Nuss should score points. Ole Miss lacks a pass rush and is outside the top 75 in tackling; expect lots of YAC. Lean - LSU Wins and LSU TT O Texas A&M vs Auburn (3:30) Tough spot for Auburn at Kyle Field. Texas A&M is coming off a bye, and Auburn is off a huge trench battle with OU. Texas A&M’s defense has been mediocre, with a run defense ranked 57th and glaring issues with tackling at 122nd. Auburn ranks in the top 30 in rushing metrics, and A&M does well (58% success) at stopping inside zone runs. Auburn can throw against A&M; both Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton average over 2 YPRR. Still, I struggle to convince myself that Auburn will stay close in this matchup. The Aggies' offense has been fantastic this season, ranking 16th in yards per play and is in the top 25 in generating passing explosiveness. Additionally, Le'Veon Moss is fully healthy now, averaging 5.1 YPC. Auburn does have a good run defense on paper, but it's a run defense that hasn't faced any dynamic rushing attacks so far this season and is a unit that ranks 80th in tackling according to PFF. Auburn’s secondary is awful as well, ranking 82nd in passing downs PPA, 99th in PPA per pass, 122nd in coverage grading, and 91st in passing explosiveness allowed. Not a recipe for success facing this A&M WR core that's dominated opposition so far this season. Mario Craver is averaging 6.24 YPRR, and KC Conception is averaging 2.6 YPRR. Marcel Reed has also been playing like a Heisman contender. A&M has an elite o-line, so Reed shouldn't be under duress in this matchup. Lean Over and Alston Props At 6 or under, it's an Aggie spot. Utah vs West Virginia (3:30) Jaheim White and Tye Edwards are out for WVU. Not an ideal matchup when facing an aggressive Morgan Scalley 4-2-5 defense that ranks top 20 in the country in Pass Rush. Dampier appeared to be injured after the Texas Tech game, but it doesn't matter in a matchup like this, where WVU’s defense has struggled with mobile quarterbacks. West Virginia is 134th in the country in creating quality drives. Lean - Pass But Lean Under Tennessee vs Mississippi State (4:15PM) The Volunteers travel to Starkville to face a much-improved MS State team. This volunteer's defense is atrocious, ranking 82nd in standard down PPA and 127th in the country in points allowed per scoring opportunity. On the flip side, this MS State offense under Jeff Lebby ranks in the top 20 in passing down PPA and points per scoring opportunity. On the flip side, MS State’s secondary has been sneaky good this season. Ranking inside the top 40 in havoc generated and passing success rate. This Tennessee offense ranks in the top 15 in passing and top 10 in most rushing metrics. My concern is that MS State's defense ranks outside the top 100 in pass rush, and Tennessee should be able to run the ball effectively in this matchup. This game is going to be quick and fast, largely due to the way both teams play. Lean Over, and I guess MS State based on my numbers. Arizona vs Iowa State (7:00 PM) Iowa State's data points continue to worsen. Arizona has a significantly improved defense this season with the new coordinator hire, and yet this Iowa State offense still struggles to generate explosive plays on the outside. Iowa State has run more 12-13 personnel this season and over the course of a game; eventually, this Iowa State run game will dominate a limited AZ Front. On the other hand, Jon Heacock's 3-3-5 defense should give trouble to an AZ offense that will struggle to run the ball in conference play. Arizona's receivers also rank outside the top 110 in receiver grade. I've never been a Noah Fifita believer, and I believe he's awful Lean Under but would Pass. Oregon at Penn State (7:30) WHITEOUT BIG GAME JAMES HERE WE GO Game of the day and potentially game of the year. Oregon travels across the country to face a Penn State team, which was most people's number 1 team, heading into the season. This is Dante Moore's first true road game in this Will Stein offense. Oregon hasn’t played anyone to deserve to be the number 1 power-rated team in most people's power ratings. I understand Penn State hasn't looked great either, but they haven't shown anything on film if you have watched and tuned into these ninety lion games.  In my opinion, Penn State has the best coordinator duo in the country, and they are coming off a bye. (Penn State has been preparing for this game since the spring.) There are major advantages for Penn State in the run game. Penn State primarily runs outside zone run concepts, as well as some man gap run concepts. Oregon has a 42% success rate in stopping outside zone run concepts, while PSU runs these concepts at an over 60% success rate. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen should have no problem running the ball, vs this same run defense they torched in the B10 title game last season. Kaytron Allen, so far this season, has 5.5 yards after first contact, and Nicholas Singleton is averaging 4.4 yards per attempt. Now, if you look at Oregon’s coverage unit, it's been really good to start the season, ranking 7th according to PFF. There is finally explosiveness on the outside for PSU, which they haven't had in recent seasons. Kyron Hudson and Trebor Pena are both averaging over 2YPRR, so if Penn State needs to throw the ball in this matchup, they should be able to. Everyone hates on Drew Allar, but he's the perfect QB to run this Kotelnicki offense. As the season progresses, I believe he will continue to improve. One area where the Oregon defense has struggled is with middle-of-the-field throws. Allar has a 91.1 PFF grade when throwing between 10 and 19 yards. On the flip side, I expect a Jim Knowles masterclass. Dante Moore might be a new quarterback in this Will Stein Offense, but we've never seen him under duress vs this type of defense. Penn State ranks 4th in defense according to PFF and is a top-20 tackling unit, which is crucial when facing a quick-game offense like Oregon's. The Penn State defense is also ranked in the top 10 in havoc and defensive line yards. I expect Oregon to move the football in spurts, but when the game gets tightened up, I expect this defense to come through. Guys like Sutton and Zane Durant need to have a big day in order for PSU to win this game. Jim Knowles will primarily run a single high defense to prevent explosives, as he did at OSU against Oregon. Overall, I think Penn State wins this game due to its strong running game and the coaching advantage it holds in the coordinator battle. Dan Lanning’s aggressiveness may also prove costly to the team. Lean - PSU and Nick Singleton Props Alabama vs Georgia (7:30) As a fan of the Bulldogs, I'm worried Georgia will lose this game. Georgia hasn't lost a home game since 2019, and it remains the largest home winning streak in the entire country. Kalen Daboer and this Alabama Offense are coming off a bye. I expect a Grubb and Kalen Daboer Masterclass in the scripted portion of this game. Now I do think Kirby Smart and this Georgia team will be able to adjust later in the game, as Kirby Smart is the best adjustment coach in the country. However, this Alabama offense is expected to succeed against the underperforming UGA defense. Georgia ranks outside the top 100 in passing efficiency, 92nd in finishing drives allowed, 91st in coverage grading according to PFF, and outside the top 100 in pass rush. Ty Simpson is the best on-target rate QB in the entire country and has just 1 TWP play so far this season. Ty Simpson, when kept clean, has a 79.1% completion rate. Georgia doesn't generate pressure. Even when blitzed, Simpson has maintained a 67.7% completion rate this season. I worry about the dogs covering Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams on the back end. Historically, these great receivers have tormented Kirby Smart's Defenses. Ryan Williams is averaging 3.3 YPRR this season, and Germie Bernard is averaging 2.9 YPRR. Georgia does have a strong run defense, so I don't worry about Alabama running the ball effectively.  Alabama, however, is 36th in line yards, and getting back Jam Miller should only help them stay in manageable downs. The Defensive side of football is where I'm a bit concerned for the dogs. Kane Wommack is a highly aggressive defensive coordinator.  Stockton, so far this season, hasn't been great vs Pressure. Stockton owns a 37.5% completion rate under pressure this season, and he's been pressured on 31/106 drop-backs. Georgia should be able to run inside zone against this Alabama defense, even with the return of one of the best run defenders in the country, Kennan. The keys for UGA winning this game are staying in manageable down-and-distance situations and creating explosive plays on the outside with Colbie Young and Zacharius Branch. From the beginning, Bobo should go more up-tempo to help this struggling UGA pass blocking out a bit. Even though Alabama’s defensive line has been disappointing so far this season, it's still a unit loaded with 5 stars. This should be a fascinating game, which comes down to the last play. If Alabama loses, its chances of making the playoff will be drastically diminished. Lean Pre Game Bama +3 and UGA Live Also, Like Ryan Williams Props As Always For More Previews Like This Drop a ❤️ Any Questions Ask 🔽

Sweet 16 Prop POD 🏀 Michigan State vs Ole Miss Jase Richardson O 1.5 3s +105 1U (365) Playable up to -130 Get familiarized with a future nba player. Jase Richardson gets a great matchup vs a 3 point funnel defense in Olemiss who ranks 318th in the country in 3PA/FGA (43.7%). Olemiss is an extremely undersized team ranking 327th in the country in height, this is significant as the rebels defensive scheme relies more heavily on allowing shots from the outside rather than the paint. With 28+ minutes this season, Richardson is over this line in 8/11 games since becoming a starter, aswell as over in 10/12 games with 4+ 3PA. Richardson in this stretch, also has been shooting 41% from 3 on an average of 5 attempts per game. This Spartans team all year has relied on their heavy depth rotation, but a guy who has emerged from that depth to be that alpha dog is Jase Richardson. For this current price and after that disaster 1/10 shooting performance vs the lobos (Give me Richardson to bang 2 in from downtown) Recent Guards vs Olemiss in the last 30 days Curtis Jones 4/9 RJ Davis 1/8 Miles Kelly 1/6 walter Clayton 5/11 alijah Martin 2/6 jordan gainey 4/9 miles Kelly 3/5 jason edwards 2/8

NFL Combine Plays 🏈 Drop a ❤️ if you are tailing ❤️ 🏈 40 Yard Dash Plays 🎯 POD - Kaleb Johnson O 4.45 40 Time Arian Smith Fastest WR -105 0.5U FD Arian Smith Fastest Player +270 0.35U FD Draft Season 😎 #Prizepicks #NFL #nflprizepicks #NFLCombine #NFLCombineplays #underdog #DFS #nflplays