Pragmatic MAGA Populist. Team Trump!! VanceGuard 2028!
Joined February 2023
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Midterm Predictions:
My model focuses on macro trends +state electorate makeup+EV data, & is updated every Friday
Current run:
221D 214R (-1 GOP seat vs last wk)
74.34% chance(-0.25 vs last wk) that GOP gets b/t 203-222 seats
53R 47D (GOP lose NC, win MI)
(Same vs last wk)
Jake Snake retweeted
The Strait of Hormuz transit levels are back to pre-conflict levels minus Iranian barrels.
The world can live without Iranian oil.
Iran cannot live without oil exports.
Jake Snake retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: A new TV ad just dropped calling out Amy Klobuchar for lying about getting more prosecutors to fight fraud in Minnesota.
Her entire campaign has been based on a lie.
Jake Snake retweeted
Heeeere we go.
If I’m not mistaken, same guy that was busy running Talarico +6 POLLZ all cycle.
Jake Snake retweeted
Annie Andrews filling an SUV up with diesel in an ad about fixing gas prices?
That will have the same impact on her car as her policies would have on the economy.
A perfect representation for her fake, ill-informed campaign.
Jake Snake retweeted
BREAKING: Florida just arrested 31 child predators who traveled to have s*x with kids, many of whom worked at Disney
Thank you Sheriff, @AGJamesUthmeier, and @GovGoneWild for keeping Florida safe!
Jake Snake retweeted
Democrats are ending the campaign about as poorly as could be imagined.
Abdul El-Sayed is still bickering with his opponent from the primary while Hasan Piker's uncle is making antisemitic ads on his behalf for clout.
Mary Peltola's campaign was exposed by the New York Times for being part of a massive criminal conspiracy to rig the Alaska election.
Ilhan Omar's scandal is blowing up.
The polls are so ridiculous that nobody answers them or believes them.
Oh, and early voting numbers show that young people simply aren't voting.
Blue tsunami? Democrats will be lucky to have a blue puddle
You’re a fucking RINO dinosaur just end your show & run off into the dustbin of history, you are resoundly HATED by the right
Jake Snake retweeted
Tony is shocked you have to show an ID to vote
Lmao
This is the guy who ran the Biden campaign in Arizona
My non-political sister just texted to ask why she had to do so much more than ever before when she dropped off her ballot at Surprise City Hall.
She messaged because right after she left the polling place, she got a text from an org saying, "Go vote, you can skip the line and drop off your ballot without having to check in or show ID."
(screenshots edited to remove her name)
Jake Snake retweeted
It has happened! In KS, the mail/IPEV is now R+1 (yesterday it was tied, Thursday it was D+2, Wednesday it was D+4 and Monday it was D+7). Democrats front loaded on the first day and are now out of voters while republicans still have MANY voters left for ED. Blue KS is gone.
Vote for @KenPaxtonTX let’s send Troon Talafreako to the unemployment line !!!!
Jake Snake retweeted
We asked Minnesota to revalidate all their high-risk providers.
The result?
30%, almost 1/3 of all the people providing services in Minnesota, could NOT be validated.
Jake Snake retweeted
Ilhan Omar was so confused by marriage to 'brother' she crossed out her own name twice on official application trib.al/2qi7kOx
Jake Snake retweeted
Democrat operatives admitted that Ilhan Omar probably married her brother, and now a civil war is breaking out among Minneapolis Democrats.
Just incredible content.
Jake Snake retweeted
James Talarico's verified email address was used to create an account on an adult hookup site. The email was revealed through a data breach from 2011 👀
The fact his lawyers were prepared with a pre-drafted reply they provided within 35 min means they were well aware of the potential PR nightmare.
WILD.
EXCLUSIVE: JAMES TALARICO'S ATTORNEYS CONFIRM HIS EMAIL WAS USED TO CREATE AN ACCOUNT ON ADULT HOOKUP SITE FLING.COM!
An email address Talarico's attorneys confirm belonged to and was used by the Texas Democrat Senate candidate appears in Fling.com's 2011 data breach — username "mohawk787," created December 26, 2010, just before Talarico started teaching sixth graders.
The profile's listed interests: "FETISH," "GROUPSEX," "SEXUAL RELATIONS," "ONLINE FLIRTING."
The record is marked "email_validated: Y" — meaning the address was verified rather than left at the default setting.
The same email appears in Myspace and Zynga breach records. The IP address used to create the Fling account also shows up on an online video game record tied to an email associated with Talarico's sister — a match the attorneys did not dispute.
Talarico's lawyers responded 35 minutes after Townhall reached out with a four-page letter claiming, without substantiation, that a hacker created the account using his email, and noting the birth date and ZIP code on the profile don't match his.
Read the full Townhall report below 👇
Jake Snake retweeted
🚫 CLAIM: Today, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it destroyed a U.S. military sea drone in the Strait of Hormuz. This claim is FALSE, just like many other IRGC lies this week.
✅ FACT: All U.S. military unmanned surface vessels in the Middle East are accounted for, including a squadron of advanced sea drones on patrol in the Strait of Hormuz supporting CENTCOM's defensive layer.
Jake Snake retweeted
Framing Michigan Senate
People have a baseline already for this race that is being ignored.
In 2018, the state had just flipped two years before to Trump, narrowly and with less than 48% of the vote. This was eight years ago, with a lot of the red only written in pencil and not yet etched in stone.
Dem Debbie Stabenow ran for a fourth term and faced John James. She only won by 6.5% as the incumbent - and even won Macomb County - key to the Trump realignment.
Now the seat is open. Whitmer would have won it easily. The two bland female candidates this year would have held it as well, but given the Stabenow baseline with a high Dem generic ballot in the House, I’d say 3-4 points.
Now there is the El-Sayed issue. The reds are much redder, he’s not winning Macomb, and he has a voting bloc problem with multiple factions of the Dem party he needs to consolidate.
From a glance at things I can’t see him with a ceiling or more than 2. And if Detroit turnout looks like Cleveland and Toledo turnout from right down the road he may not even be in the game.