Navy veteran | Father | Independent Writer explaining U.S. budgets, inequality, and why “we can’t afford it” is a myth

Chicago IL
Joined September 2020
These are the economic numbers going into the midterms: Inflation when Trump took office: 3%. Inflation today: 3.7%. Wage gains when Trump took office: 4% Wage gains today: 3% Real wage gains when Trump took office: 1% Real wage gains today: -0.7% Cost of a gallon of gas when Trump took office: $3.13 Cost of a gallon of gas today: $4.33 Average monthly job creation in 2024: 122,000 Average monthly job creation since Trump took office: 39,000 Unemployment rate when Trump took office: 4% Unemployment rate today: 4.2% GDP growth 2024: 3% Most recent quarter GDP growth: 2.2% (2026 average so far: 2.3%) Deficit in 2024: $1.83 trillion Deficit for 2026: $1.99 trillion National debt 2024: $35.5 trillion National debt 2026: $40.1 trillion 30-year mortgage rate when Trump took office: 7% 30-year mortgage rate today: 7.45% Defense spending 2024: $874 billion Defense spending 2026: $966 billion* (current OMB estimate) Republican defense spending request for 2027: $1.5 trillion
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Watching midterm campaigns makes me wish we could go back to a time when a political career would be ended by spelling potato wrong, making a weird scream, or riding around in a tank with a huge helmet on.
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The Trump administration says the Strait of Hormuz is open and crude oil shipments have returned to normal levels, but gas and diesel prices remain high. What is the real story? Crude oil exports from the region have returned to near pre-war levels, but they aren't using the same routes as before. 40% of crude oil exports are avoiding the strait. The problem is that some of these alternative pipelines and ports increase shipping distances. Lower efficiency means higher costs. These routes also lack enough capacity to move everything. Oil traveling through the Strait costs much more because the Strait isn't actually open. Ships are still attacked. As a result, insurance and operating costs are higher, and much of the oil moves through ship-to-ship transfers, where one ship travels the high-risk Strait and then transfers the oil to another ship to complete the journey. You can see the effect by looking at Middle East to China charter rates, which are currently 12x higher than before the war. While crude export rates have recovered, production has not. Global oil production is still below pre-war levels. This has caused a large drawdown of inventories and reserves to keep oil moving. Refilling those inventories will increase demand and upward pressure on prices. Crude shipping was not the only issue caused by the war. Exports of refined products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel from the region remain less than half of pre-war levels. Natural gas shipments remain around 75-80% below pre-war levels and lack the alternative shipping options oil has. Phosphate fertilizer production and shipping are still reduced. Part of this is due to sulfur disruptions. Almost half of internationally traded sulfur involves the Strait of Hormuz. The simple fact is that the Strait is not fully open, and many issues created by the war remain.
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This is the absolute worst mindset to have ten days before midterms, when people are looking to elect candidates who will fight. Fight against the corruption. Fight against the terrible policies. Fight to get America on a better trajectory. This is the type of attitude that has made so many give up on the Democratic Party. If Democrats win the House and the Senate, they need to show they can unite to pass the bills their voters are demanding. If Trump vetoes them, it sends a clear message: Democrats are pushing for change, but to get it done, they need a president in 2028 who will join them. Stop being weak.
.@SenBrianSchatz says that if Democrats take the Senate, the party's left wing needs to be strategic about not proposing things "that the president of the United States is guaranteed to veto." "If we want to be more aspirational, if we want to make more bold policy changes... that's for 2028."
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It is good to see more focus on how terrible job creation has been since Republicans gained full control of the federal government. We also need to talk about wages. Not only have wages been lagging inflation for six months straight, but even worse, since Trump took office, inflation has been 6.1%. In the same period, average wage gains were 5.5%. Under Republican leadership, the buying power of the average wage has decreased. Paychecks are shrinking.
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Republicans know they're going to lose so badly in the midterms that they're suing to stop the certification of an election that hasn't even happened yet.
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If Trump hadn't run again in 2024, he would have remained a mythical figure to MAGA voters. They would have had pictures of him in their houses for decades. They would have talked about how he was the greatest president until the Deep State took him down. He could have grifted off of them for the rest of his life and meddled with politics from the sidelines. But instead, Trump ran again and won. Now, his voters have watched his ineptitude destroy the economy, start a new war, hide the Epstein files, cozy up to Putin, and destroy the Republican Party. The people who used to worship him are watching him deteriorate in real time. Trump will end up as a sad footnote in US history, where he is referred to as the worst president who led an openly corrupt administration that dreamed authoritarian dreams.
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12 days until midterms, and most states already have early voting open. What are you voting for? Cheaper gas? Gas has been over $4 a gallon for more than 170 days this year, the longest on record, and diesel remains over $6. No more war? Trump started a war with Iran that caused these high oil prices. His own intelligence agencies said Iran was not working on a nuclear weapon and had not been for over 20 years. Affordable housing? 30-year mortgage rates are higher than when Trump took office, while home prices hit a record high. Homeownership is getting further out of reach. Better job opportunities? Job creation has fallen off a cliff. Unemployment has risen. Better wages? Since Republicans gained full control of the federal government, inflation has risen by 6.1%. The average wage has increased by only 5.5%. The average paycheck is shrinking. Affordable healthcare? Republicans are causing millions to lose their healthcare as we see massive increases in healthcare costs. The people in charge have failed us. It is time to vote them out.
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Some financial scandals from Trump's second term: 🔸Shady crypto coin scheme that made him billions 🔸UAE's $500 million investment in Trump's crypto company, which was followed by AI chip approvals 🔸Binance's $2 billion stablecoin deal that led to a presidential pardon 🔸A White House cryptocurrency adviser whose company received $6.3 million from Tether. After leaving the White House, he became the head of Tether's US operations 🔸Accepting a $400 million Qatari jet 🔸Accepting a gold bar and Rolex clock from the Swiss. Tariffs on Switzerland were reduced shortly thereafter. 🔸Accepting a ring with over 300 diamonds on it from Belgium after reducing tariffs on diamond imports 🔸Trump's international real-estate expansion while negotiating trade agreements, including a $1.5 billion development in Vietnam during tariff negotiations. 🔸Multiple scandals around the ballroom, resulting in $50 billion in new or expanded federal contracts for donors. 🔸Alina Habba's $50 million deal connected to a pardon 🔸Kimberly Guilfoyle taking money for political access 🔸$220 million DHS advertising campaign to put Kristi Noem on camera and gave her associates millions 🔸$200 million to purchase two private jets, one of which was used to fly Noem around 🔸$1 billion contract awarded to a Trump donor for deportation services 🔸Another $1 billion in contracts given to a donor for border wall services 🔸$3.2 billion in contracts that went to 15 companies Trump's sons invested in 🔸Trump tried to sue his own government and then tried to create a $1.8 billion fund for insurrectionists as a settlement 🔸Massive stock trading by Trump, often on businesses he later promotes or gives contracts to 🔸Jared Kushner's foreign investment business while serving as an administration envoy 🔸Shady oil deals in Venezuela 🔸DOGE was a scam that cost the country more than the tiny amount it saved while it grabbed our personal info 🔸Large sums of money spent building/expanding immigrant detention centers that were quickly shut down or abandoned 🔸Trump-branded development in Serbia and the manipulation of historic-protection rules, involving Jared Kushner 🔸Ric Grenell and the missing $5.6 million Kennedy Center donation Not only is corruption rampant in this administration, but while you struggle to buy groceries and gas, those around Trump are pocketing millions, even billions.
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Price increases since January 2025: Diesel fuel: 68.9% Heating oil: 63.9% Gasoline: 39.1% Ground beef: 22.5% Airline tickets: 19.1% Auto maintenance: 11.7% Home electricity: 9.9% Hospital services: 9.6% Clothing: 9% Natural gas utility: 7.4% Beverages: 6.4% Restaurant meals: 6.2% Inflation overall: 6.1% Average wage gains over this time: 5.5% Trump income for 2025: $2.2 billion
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Republicans have passed just one major defining piece of legislation in the past two years. Yet, not one Republican wants to utter its name during the midterm campaigns. Why? Because it was such a failure. The bill was the "One Big Beautiful Bill". It cut over $130 billion in Medicaid funding for rural areas. Rural hospitals are struggling so much that they're shutting down. It caused millions of Americans to lose their healthcare. Medical debt and illnesses are leading causes of bankruptcy in the US. It kicked over 1 million hungry children off of food assistance. It did all of this to shift a greater burden onto the poorest Americans while giving huge tax breaks to the wealthiest. The top 1% now hold as much wealth as the bottom 90%. It is exploding the deficit. The deficit was $2 trillion this year, and the OBBB will add trillions more to the deficit in the coming years. So instead of calling it the OBBB, they're calling it the "Working Family Tax Cuts" to make it sound like a good thing. Those tax cuts for working families are small. The average tax refund increased by $350. But the average household paid $1,500 in tariffs last year. You weren't taxed less. You were taxed more. The no-tax-on-tips and overtime weren't as advertised and expire in December 2028. The corporate and billionaire tax breaks are permanent. That shows who Republicans are really working for. Why would anyone want two more years of that?
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Trump destroyed the economy, pushed away allies, and started a pointless war, and then used that situation to grow economic ties with a war criminal dictator who is America's enemy.
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As Elon Musk spends nearly $400 million trying to influence the midterm elections, we should talk about how ridiculous money in politics has become. Below is a chart showing how spending has changed since 1976, adjusted for inflation. 🔸The average cost to run a winning Senate campaign has increased by more than 6x. 🔸Lobbying spending has increased by more than 7x. 🔸Overall election spending has increased by almost 10x, with nearly 16 billion spent on the 2024 election. This is what corporations and special interest groups have caused with help from court decisions such as Citizens United and SpeechNow. The good news is that your vote is your voice, and it can defeat the billions being spent to influence elections. Get out and vote.
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AAA national average cost for a gallon of gas: $4.33 The average American driver drives 29 miles per day (including commuting, school drop-offs, errands, social events, etc.). Average miles per gallon in the US: 27.5 That works out to an average of $1,667 per driver per year on gas alone. Gas was $2.98 a gallon the day before America started a war with Iran. At that price, the average driver would have spent about 30% less and saved $520 a year compared to today's cost.
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Inflation rose to 3.7%. Paychecks have shrunk for the past six months. Six months! Gas has been over $4 a gallon for 165 days this year. Mortgage rates are 7.4%, and home prices hit a record high. Good luck buying a house. The war in Iran continues in its seventh month. Vote the Republicans causing this mess out of office.
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MAGA is a dying movement. -Significantly fewer MAGA hats. -You don't see cars decked out in Trump/MAGA flags anymore. -And online support has cratered. Not just the bots, but the regular accounts that had 1k-6k followers, had been around for years, and used to show up in every political thread to praise Trump/MAGA or troll Democrats. It turns out the key to ending MAGA was for them to gain full control of the federal government. When MAGA could yell from the sidelines, invent conspiracies, and obstruct progress, they built a following. Once they were in control and their ineptitude was on full display, their following disappeared.
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Instead of writing yet another Substack discussing what happened today in partisan politics, I've sought to break down the policies and issues affecting our nation into easy-to-understand short articles. But one short article could only explain so much. Today, I launched the first quarterly issue of The Progressive Capitalist, titled "...and then the Corporations Came," discussing the corporate takeover of American politics. Available digitally and in print. This publication has zero corporate influence. No money. Not a single advertisement. No money from political parties, special interest groups, or billionaires. Just support from people like you. If you would like to support this work, visit theprogressivecapitalist.com
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The articles in the first issue are: The Match Was Lit: Discusses the Powell Memorandum and how corporate frustration with progress led to a campaign design aimed at achieving massive political influence. The Flood of Money: Explores how corporate spending took over the democratic process and drove the cost of a winning Senate campaign from $3.36M in 1976 to $21.1M in 2024, and how spending on federal elections exploded from $1.65B to $15.9B (1976 values are in 2024 dollars). The Story Was Rewritten: Shows how corporations didn't only spend directly on elections. They also spent heavily on changing the public narrative through investments in media, education, think tanks, and the judicial system. It covers the deception business used and attacks on unions and progress. The Movement They Feared: Tracks the workers' and civil rights gains from WWII through the 1960s by looking at the life and accomplishments of A. Philip Randolph. One Million Can Defeat Billions: Talks about how a modern workers' rights movement can overcome political spending by using our voice and our vote. One Vote. Then Two.: Concludes the magazine with how you can start making a difference.
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Republicans have failed America. -The Iran war continues, and gas prices have been high for far too long. -Inflation is too high because of tariffs and the war. -Wage gains remain the lowest seen in five years, and real wage gains have been negative for five months (soon six). -The House ran away weeks ago to avoid doing any real work. -Millions are losing their healthcare because costs are too high. -Housing costs are at a record high, and mortgage rates are extreme. -The economy remains sluggish, job growth is low, and consumer sentiment is near record lows. -The deficit has grown to almost $2 trillion, and the national debt is over $40 trillion. It is time to kick Republicans out of the majority and get America on a better track. Check your voter registration. Know where to vote. Make a plan. Get others to vote. Make the midterms such a devastating defeat that the only hope Republicans have for future elections is to rid their party of Trump and MAGA.
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Trump has tried every scam on oil prices to avoid ending the war he started in defeat: pretending the Strait is open, demanding the EU draw from its oil reserves, drawing down US oil reserves, diesel tax deferment, and making deals with Russia for diesel that is supposed to be sanctioned. Prices remain high. Gas has been over $4 a gallon for more than half of 2026. So what does Trump do today? Pretends there is an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. There is one small issue, though. Neither country knows anything about it. Trump built a base by lying to them. He got elected by lying. Now he thinks he can lie about what's happening in the world and that will make everything okay. It won't. Even worse are the Republican politicians who immediately demand that everyone support Trump's fictitious ceasefire. They know he lies, but they go right along with it every time. MAGA needs to go. Vote them out.
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