*MICROSOFT TO OFFER BUYOUTS TO 60,000 WORKERS IN LATEST COST CUT This is 27% of $MSFT's entire workforce

Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen. Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However: - credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years. - more people are paying rent via credit card. - average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago - class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month. - starting to see these renters move down a tier Class B: - simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous. - fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50% - considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets. Class C: - looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up - more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades - tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it - wage growth has not kept up Lenders: - some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff. - a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses. - number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall. - data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over. I asked “how do you think this ends?” “Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”

Nike unveils a new addition to Portland’s iconic downtown Stag sign, ahead of @JaMorant’s Trail Blazers debut today. 🎥: @djwicked

JUST IN: Getty Images files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after struggling with mounting debt & growing competition from AI-generated images.

"The Oregon Ducks should still be ranked because they have played the hardest schedule in CFB. Nobody else has played 4 currently ranked teams" Oregon has wins over #19 and #23 in the AP poll + close losses to #12 and #18, but they aren't ranked while LSU is? ok.... youtube.com/live/2IdP5PG_QR0…

Oregon QB Dylan Raiola was asked why he elected to meet with the media after Oregon's 17-15 loss to UCLA. Worth your time. #GoDucks si.com/college/oregon/footba…

I don't know whose wife needs to hear this, but you do not, and I repeat, do not, need another one of these..

BREAKING: Chipotle stock, $CMG, surges over +6% on reports that Starbucks has explored a takeover of the company. The deal would create a combined company with almost $50 billion in annual sales.