Jess

After a bit of delay, the HUXt model is out for our CME we have been tracking, and it shows something interesting: impact was never supposed to happen last night. According to this prediction, we may see our CME sometime close to midnight UTC on June 9 which would be PERFECT timing for North America.

Forecast UPGRADED to G4/SEVERE Geomagnetic Storming! There is a good chance of widespread auroral displays tonight and throughout the week. Here's what you need to know! Full details below: What's happening? Three solar storms are on the way to Earth. These are big ejections of plasma from the Sun that can enhance the solar wind. They can cause geomagnetic storms if they reach us. Geomagnetic storms are measured on a scale from G1-G5. A G4 watch has been issued for Nov 12 UT day (so that includes the night of Nov 11-12 for North America). G4 = Kp 8 conditions. What's the timing? The impact window for the solar storm starts soon, and we should have successive impacts throughout the next couple days. Depending on the strength of the CMEs, G4 conditions could be reached tonight or tomorrow. Don't worry about when exactly the CMEs will impact. Be ready for aurora on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. What are the chances of aurora in ___ location? No one knows for sure! This is like saying there is a high-risk severe weather day without seeing the radar loop. You don't know if your house is going to get hit by a tornado, but the chances are higher than usual. A few things have to come together to get to the forecated G4 storm strength: 1. The CMEs have to hit us. A miss is always possible but very unlikely in this situation. Plus, we have three CMEs headed our way, so there are more chances one of them hits. 2. The CMEs need the right magnetic configuration to cause a big storm. If they are not aligned correctly with Earth's magnetic field (Bz needs to be south, ideally), besides an initial disturbance form the impact, auroral displays may be subdued. 3. It needs to happen when it's dark for you! You can't see the aurora during the daytime, so the best scenario is that the CME hits right before sunset for your location so that conditions ramp up into the night. I am not super concerned with the timing of this event, however, since there are three CMEs on the way, and I think activity will be sustained over a couple days. Where will the aurora be? During a G4 geomagnetic storm, we may see the auroral ovals expand to lower latitudes and places in the central U.S. may see naked-eye auroral displays throughout the night. The U.S.-Mexico border latitude could even see red glows on-camera during big flareups called substorms. I don't like using view-line maps or any of those tools since during a geomagnetic storm, substorms can push the aurora pretty far south/equatorward. I think the view-line in this graphic could actually be conservative if the CMEs impact and the geomagnetic storm is strong enough. We could see auroral visibility similar to the October 2024 or June 2025 event with sightings as equatorward as Arizona, south Texas, Spain, northern Japan, etc. How can you see the aurora? You want: 1. Clear skies 2. Dark skies 3. Auroral activity You can really only control numbers 1. and 2. Nature controls the third factor. Cloud cover will lower your chances of seeing the aurora. Light pollution will drown out faint displays. Head away from city lights and scout out a spot with a clear view of the northern horizon (or southern horizon if you're in the southern hemisphere). If you can't get out of the city, golf courses and public parks at least offer you some relief from annoying streetlaamps and security lights. Be aware that you are on PUBLIC property, though, and stay safe. Bring an external phone charger, water, food, cold-weather gear, etc. and tell someone your plans before you head out. Safety is no. 1. If you think auroral activity is enough to see something where you are, but nothing is appearing in the sky, take a test shot with your phone or camera. Starting settings for a camera are: lens' max aperture (lowest f-number), 10 seconds, ISO 1600-6400. Manually focus on the stars and use a tripod. If you see green or red colors (above the clouds), it's likely aurora! I'm happy to confirm sightings if you send them to me as well. When rolling up to a location with other aurora chasers, turn off your headlights, use a red light or soft white light for navigating at night, and don't be too loud to disrupt the experience of others. Happy hunting!

Here we go! NOAA has just announced a strong geomagnetic storm forecast for Tuesday night due to a couple solar storms heading towards Earth. If these solar storms or CMEs do impact, we could see the auroral ovals extend to lower latitudes and during activity flare-ups called substorms (read more about those here: go.theauroraguy.com/substorm), the aurora could be seen at lower latitudes like in the central U.S. Let me tell you the main details and expectations about this upcoming event and what you should pay attention to so you can see the aurora. Read on! If you're not always watching space weather like me, then maybe you don't know what's happening, so let me explain. The Sun fired off a couple X-class solar flares over the past few days which hurled solar material into space called coronal mass ejections (CMEs). If the solar wind constantly flowing out from the Sun is like a gentle breeze, a CME is like a giant gust. I also like to call these CMEs "Sun sneezes." You can learn more about these phenomena in a free aurora chasing e-book I created. Download it here: go.theauroraguy.com/ebook. X-class solar flares are the highest classification of flare (the scale goes from A to X), and we experienced an X1.7 and X1.2 flare which both launched CMEs right at Earth. Scientists have modeled these eruptions and determined impact times for both of them. The first might get here as early as Nov 11 at 22 UT and the second, which is faster, might catch up to it and impact around the same time or slightly later. Make sure to convert UT (universal time) to your local time zone. The exact timing doesn't matter, though, because our models are not that sophisticated to give an accurate number. You should start paying attention to space weather data feeds Tuesday afternoon in anticipation of the first hit and stay on alert into Wednesday. You can learn about how CME models work in a recent blog article I wrote about the HUXt model: go.theauroraguy.com/huxtmode… . I have also written peer-reviewed articles on CMEs, so I have experience with these concepts 🙂 NOAA SWPC is the primary forecasting agency for space weather in the United States. They have issued a G2 watch (Kp 6; moderate) for Nov 11 and G3 watch (Kp 7; strong) for Nov 12 due to the combined effects of two decent-sized CMEs hitting Earth in quick succession. Effects may even last into Nov 13. What we end up seeing in reality will likely be different than what NOAA is predicting just because of how uncertain space weather is, but the bottom line is that tomorrow night, there are good chances *something* will happen. We'll just have to see what shows up at Earth and react to it! A total dud is always possible, too. What will happen with the aurora? Well, right after the CME(s) impact, I am guessing the auroral ovals will expand to lower latitudes, perhaps closing in on the U.S.-Canada border. Folks above the 45th parallel might be able to see the aurora looking north throughout the night, and during substorms, the aurora could surge in strength and be seen from into the central U.S. Substorms are key. These 15-30 minute bursts of activity can really enhance the aurora and cause it to grow tall in height and very bright. Colors become enhanced, and often times, the northern lights "dance" and become very active. You can monitor substorm activity using a number of tools including apps like Glendale, AuroraNotice, Norlys, etc., but my favorite resource is the GOES Magnetometer. I have a blog article about how to use GOES on my website: go.theauroraguy.com/goesmag . In essence, when energy from the Sun hits Earth, it is stored in Earth's magnetic field which stretches out like a rubber band. When all that energy is released in a substorm, the stretched rubber band "snaps," and you can see those snaps as spikes in the graphs on the GOES magnetometers, giving you a real-time look at substorms happening. These spikes tell you that the aurora is about to get good and you should head outside to take a peek. Webcams are also great tools to monitor activity in real-time, and if you see the aurora happening near you on a webcam, it's time to head out! I have a list on my site that you can consult for tomorrow: go.theauroraguy.com/webcams For more aurora chasing tips and tricks, check out my Aurora FAQ page (theauroraguy.com/pages/auror…), and remember that the aurora often appears fainter with your eye than on a camera (Why? Read here: theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/…), so take a test shot with your phone looking north if a substorm is reported. You never know what you're going to see. Your viewing conditions matter, too! Find an area with low light pollution to the north and make sure to have clear skies. The aurora occurs hundreds of miles in the sky, so clouds will rain on your parade! Thin, high clouds are okay especially when the aurora is powerful and can shine though, but overcast skies are not good. With that, let's all hope for a good CME hit tomorrow and forecast verification with a strong geomagnetic storm! A G3 event would probably cause most of the central U.S. to see the aurora at some time, so it's just a matter of everything working in our favor and careful monitoring of substorm conditions to catch the elusive northern lights. I'll keep you all updated with this event, and feel free to ask questions about what is happening below. I will try and answer as many of them as possible.