Jo

LMAO, who’s selling #BTC Be smart, don’t listen to BS speculation, they’re just manipulating you to steal your coins, you’ll end up buying higher or not buying at all and stay sidelined lol

Before people spread misinformation I want to tell you that - Over 40m SOL are still locked They can't sell them overnight or dump them on the market I believe OTC buyers will get FTX's vesting contract

The 53.5M $SOL position of Alameda/FTX has been a missing puzzle in my investment thesis and a headache since their meltdown. I've created a model as my basis for further interpretation in the last days. tl;dr / We've been facing one of the biggest VC wash-outs and token redistributions that ever happened in crypto. The FTX bankruptcy resulted in a negative bias, but the token redistribution continues. Solana's future might be even brighter than we currently think. (NFA) My current unterstanding and interpretations: 1) most of the $SOL is locked with a linear monthly unlock resulting in a rather continuous market impact than a sudden market impact source: solana.com/news/solana-facts… 2) the overall effect is more a dilution / addon-inflation. I have no information about whether VC tokens have been included in the current Solana tokenomics or not. I take them as additional dilution in my model. 3) But why do we fear huge sell pressure by those unlocks? Why this negative bias? In fact, nothing really changed. The situation became even better. Before the FTX/Alameda meltdown Solana had a token concentration problem regarding VCs. A single entity like SBF would have been dumping on us 100% anyway at any time. We definitely know that now. This concentrated token ownership is likely getting fractionalized now. There's been a big VC wash-out last year in addition. The token distribution and the ecosystem are healing. A tough but also healthy reset. 3) Kroll is clearly focused on liquidating any tokens asap to reduce risk and volatility of their secured assets (source: debtors' motion below). Additionally this may allow them to earn yield. We don't need to fear that the bankruptcy case is using $SOL as a moonbag, lol. source: restructuring.ra.kroll.com/F… 4) Tokens will be sold OTC only. Token locks remain. 5) The 7.5M $SOL bag that unlocks as a whole in 2025 could add sell pressure and risk to the 7.67M $SOL yearly unlocks that still happen from 2025 til January 2028. To prevent that, Kroll could add a vesting for this 7.5M $SOL OTC deals to optimize the situation for other OTC deals. Would be in their best interest to achieve the best possible OTC deals overall, especially for the remaining part of the 46M $SOL (roughly 20M). As another option a widespread OTC sale could also help reducing the sale pressure. 6) the Robin Hood case showed us how the market reacts to a possible forced liquidation (3M $SOL) with a heterogenous, widespread distribution. It was a nothing burger in the end with short term volatility. The more widespread the distribution via OTC deals the better I assume. 7) the size and complexity of the SOL position could be the reason why VCs aren't able to add any bid to SOL positions in the bankruptcy case yet but other tokens. 8) so, we have a continuous market impact that adds inflation. I dived into Solana tokenomics and calculated a model (see first image). The idea is to take these linear token unlocks and think of them as additional token dilution. This model illustrates corrected inflation rates in comparison to the official token inflation schedule. We have a peak add-on inflation of around 2,2% in 2024 that won't even result in the highest yoy ecosystem inflation rate. And that's it. As we likely see a recovery in the next two years from the 2022 bottom, this inflation add-on could become irrelevant. The only requirement I see is that OTC deals should be as widely distributed as possible to prevent another ownership concentration. Might be interesting to compare inflation schedules of other chains here as well. 9) Staking yield is becoming less attractive over time, but the price reset happened in an early lifetime phase (Solana is 3 years old). In the current market cycle longterm bets are placed and the upside potential is way bigger than the downside risk. It's revaluation season in crypto and staking-time! Combined with the price reset I'm sure this will result in a more sustainable holder structure which even reduces sell pressure of the native ecosystem inflation for a good amount of time. The Solana ecosystem is stronger and more innovative than ever. Unique products will be created on Solana bc of its unique and highly differentiating blockchain architecture. And this will add value to the whole crypto industry. We'll be fine imo. (not financial advice)

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Elon Musk's X (Twitter) obtains license to store, transfer, and trade #Bitcoin and #crypto.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Grayscale wins its lawsuit against the SEC over converting its fund to a spot #Bitcoin ETF.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC ruling on BlackRock's spot #Bitcoin ETF due this week - Bloomberg

📈 8 Phases of Market Cycle 🚨 You Must have heard about the 4 Phases of Market Cycle 👇 < Accumulation, Uptrend, Distribution & Downtrend > But let me breakdown these 4 Phases into 8 for better understanding of Market Cycle. [𝘉𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦] 1) Accumulation Phase : During this phase, prices are relatively low and stable after a downtrend. Price is boring and keeps ranging for weeks and month. Experienced investors and smart money start accumulating gradually to avoid price spikes, Retail investors are less involved due uninteresting market and due to Fear of market falling further. This phase can be recognized if price is Trading Inside a range or forming any reversal patterns like Double Bottoms. Technical indicators are often Oversold in this area & Negative news have little to no impact on the prices as sell pressure is absorbed by the smart money. 2) Bullish Transition Phase: This phase is a transition from Accumulation to an Uptrend. Prices start moving up slowly, after breaking the downwards Market structure & starts slowly heading upwards but it's typically a slow and unexciting phase. This is also the best time to look for buying opportunities. 3) Uptrend or Markup Phase: During the uptrend, prices consistently climbs up , forming higher highs and higher lows. As the market attracts more participants, Positive sentiment starts increasing with bullish news having a good impact on the price. 4) Bullish Acceleration Phase: In this phase price moves too quick in a very short period of time, often driven by extreme excitement and greed. This phase price enters parabola. 'Dips are eaten up quickly' and Technical indicators start entering the OverBought zone. 5) Distribution Phase: In this phase, Initial investors who bought during accumulation phase - start selling to secure profits. Prices become unstable, choppy or range-bound , and even positive news has minimal impact on the price. Retails are actively involved in this area. Reversal patterns like Inverse Head and Shoulders, double top, breakdown of 200 MA might indicate a potential trend shift. 6) Bearish Transition Phase: This is a transition phase where New Buyers (Mostly Retails) fail to absorb the selling pressure from the early investors/ smart money who bought during the accumulation phase. Price transitions from Uptrend to a Downtrend by breaking the bullish market structure. This is also the best time to sell & take profits. 7) Downtrend or MarkDown Phase: In this phase, prices consistently decrease, and fear dominates the market. Selling becomes more frequent, leading to Lower Highs and Lower Lows. There are very few new buyers Left to absorb the increased selling pressure. 8) Bearish Acceleration Phase: In this Phase - Prices drop rapidly in a short period, driven by extreme fear and negativity with bad news. Market sentiment becomes very negative, and technical indicators show a strongly oversold signal. In this Phase there are little to No Postive news left in the market, while negative news have bigger impact on the price causing forced Selling. Every Market goes through these PHASES in a Complete Cycle, Starting from Lows, going up to Highs, and then coming back down again.🔁 ➡️Now Recognizing our position in the Market Cycle is also very important for shaping our Trading Plan /Strategy accordingly : •Accumulation : (Buy support /sell resistance), DCA and try to build a long term Position •Distribution : (Buy support /sell resistance), Start to gradually Unload Your Long term Holdings. •Bullish Transition : Look for Buy/Long opportunities. •Uptrend or Markup : Buy support/Deviations/ or Pullback into HTF support •Bearish Transition: Look for Selling /short opportunities. •Downtrend or Mark Down : Sell Pumps/ Deviations/ Retest into HFT Resistance. x------------End-------------x If you enjoyed this Post : i) Follow me @thescalpingpro for more of these 🔥 ii) Like & RT Appreciated🤝

Jim Cramer says investors should ignore Bitcoin and buy gold instead

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