Manager Services @botbotcap
Cupertino
Joined October 2021
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Robots need sov markets. NEED
Btc 21m meme and never change anything unless absolutely necessary is a good SoV product roadmap. It covers 80% of the sov feature set.
Anywhere in the world, solana is the best place to run an sov market. This has a much bigger surface area, requires constant change to keep up with new hardware. But only works if the markets are immutable and never break and can’t be stopped. So we need cheap fast censorship resistant global state machines.
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Joseph Page retweeted
Depending on who you talk to, our industry growing up is either doom or glory.
We are finally globally relevant and that necessarily means we are less insular.
Because this industry was created by the stubborn resolute and unwavering conviction of contrarians, misfits, and fringe actors, we relished in the pirate mindset. We loved our insularity. (Tbh, I miss it too at times).
The “web3” thesis where programmable blockchains are supposed to be decentralized computing infrastructure for many apps ultimately incinerated billions of dollars of venture capital because it led tech minded builders and their investors to prioritize app sovereignty over unified liquidity. This was wrong on first principles.
As it turns out, blockchain has and always will be financial infrastructure. Finance superpowered by tech and programmability. Decentralization, neutrality, and censorship resistance have never been more important.
Whether this excites you going forward depends on whether you’re more west coast or east coast; San Francisco or New York; more tech or finance minded.
From the west coast crowd, I often hear disappointment (“oh in the end blockchain is only about finance?! That’s it?”)
I couldn’t be more excited, and I think the mandate has never been more clear and also attainable.
Capital formation isn’t an abstract thing that bankers do when you are ready to IPO.
Capital formation enables innovation. It allows us to take big bets on the future. Liquid markets enable capital formation. Over the long term, there can not be a larger global capital market than the internet capital market. The biggest market to possibly unify is that of people on the internet who use money.
Like all things the internet has ever touched, the online/onchain experience is never the same as the pre internet experience. Just as we needed network engineers to imagine and build blockchain networks, we need consumer tech minds to complement finance minds to deliver new ways of accessing finance.
This is not and has never been a small vision for blockchain. In fact, I would argue that it’s a core intent of a “peer to peer electronic cash network.”
We welcome those who want to double down on finance for the internet to come join the Solana ecosystem and make good on this mission.
I think it’s fine and even great that the risk-on talent from blockchain is now expanding new frontiers away from blockchain. New frontiers are only ever explored by those with stubborn resolute unwavering conviction.
My take on a16z crypto moving into frontier tech.
First, I'll always be grateful to a16z for helping validate the space back in 2013 when Chris Dixon led their investment into Coinbase, which got me even more excited about crypto.
But the final nail in the coffin for my previous career, and what ultimately pushed me to pivot my entire career into Bitcoin, was Marc Andreessen's 2014 NYT oped, Why Bitcoin Matters. If you haven't read it, suggest reading it. It's still important to this day.
A lot of people have probably forgotten, but in those days we were all just looking for external validation. Very few institutions or funds were willing to publicly endorse crypto, and two of the funds that took a real brand risk were a16z and USV.
Since then, we've seen some of the most incredible talent enter the space and fundamentally reshaped what crypto is today.
You can actually argue that a lot of the AI infrastructure development we're seeing today wouldn't be where it is without Bitcoin mining infrastructure and the talent that flowed from crypto into AI. There is a real connection between the two industries that I don't think gets enough credit.
Now, moving from crypto into frontier tech, whether that's robotics, bio, AI, energy, compute etc just means to me that the talent and muscle we developed building crypto over the past decade can now be used to build across all of frontier tech.
We spent years building something that was nascent, misunderstood, and in many cases hated by the world. We developed thick skin, continued investing and building, and had to constantly show the world why this tech mattered. Even during thanksgiving dinners.
And I think that makes us uniquely suited to build frontier tech.
An example is data centers. Today, people and governments are increasingly pushing back against them. Well, people and governments hated crypto too, but we continued to invest and build, and now almost all of trad finance is embracing crypto in some capacity.
I believe frontier tech represents the next generation of pirates in technology. People willing to build things that are nascent, misunderstood, and sometimes hated by the world.
We're going to be hated and loved along the way, but we're going to keep building cool shit that the world hasn't recognized the importance of yet.
And crypto taught me that the world usually doesn't recognize the importance of new tech until years later which is why I stay close to talent
Joseph Page retweeted
Here's to the crazy ones.
The nerds. The financiers. The gamblers.
The twelve traders in a decision market deciding a founder's cliff.
The ones who committed 32 million and got 31.75 back.
The ones who voted on the terms, then voted on the terms again.
They're not fond of rules. Especially the ones they wrote last quarter.
You can quote them, disagree with them, re-run the market on them.
About the only thing you can't do is hold them to it.
Because the people who are crazy enough to think a vote is a contract
are the ones who find out it isn't.
Some of those businesses are starting to work out.
The rest are starting a new proposal.
Imagine a system that discentivizes such behavior... 🧭🧭
There is a major inefficiency in the active crypto market right now. Let me explain.
There are different types of traders.
Most crypto OG's like myself are value traders. We find mispriced assets based on the projects fundamentals and potentital, bid them, and sell them when others realize the value.
"Trenchers" or "Attention traders" are focused on low-value narratives, holder counts, deployer track records, weird conspiracies about the dev sharing a bunk with Vitalik in Estonia while at basket weaving camp, etc.
These people make most of their money pretending something is not a scam, so they can make money in the gap: between people not knowing it is a scam, and people realizing that it is a scam.
This fairly normal. But the ratio is not. And it does not stay this way.
Currently, onchain value traders are the minority. Most of us are holding 80% majors going into this cycle. We understand that onchain season does not truly begin until after majors have a moment. Which they seem to be right now. These are the people with the majority of the liquidity in this space. Nobody with real money is bidding shitcoins on <insert blockchain> right now.
Currently, most of the active liquidity is Trenchers and Attention traders. This is why we see such dramatic Pump and Dumps as liquidity flows from narrative to narrative, uncertain what is happening because no serious traders have started participating. (Traders with hold times above 24 hours).
This environment prevents most anything from holding or running to new highs (i know there are exceptions) simply because of the mechanics.
This is not complex.
Majors move first. Over 70% of crypto liquidity is held in L1 tokens with no smart contracts. Not even on the chains we use. You guys are trading against literal ghosts and demons.
The real show starts when that real money starts moving to smart contract chains like @base, @solana, etc. Good luck.
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Joseph Page retweeted
Look at him, thats my Qual.
Your what?
My Qualitative! My vibe specialist. Look at him, you notice anything different about him? Look at his face.
I'll give you a hint, his name is Jayden. He won a local poetry competition in bushwick! Yeah I'm sure of the vibe.
Quant firms are hiring idea guys, not quants
I've been skeptical about the whole - software is commoditized, ideas are the moat argument
But I've seen first hand the best quant and technical firms in the world hire thinkers, liberal arts grads, and generalists
I predict the trend accelerates
Letter from @AQRCapital below
Joseph Page retweeted
If Scooter pulls this off he earns himself a seat next to the patriarchs. Future generations will sing songs about Abraham, Isaac, Jacob, and Scooter.
Sydney Sweeney meets with rabbis as her and Scooter Braun think about a future with kids trib.al/1PlWCKE
Joseph Page retweeted
call me crazy but i actually think if you’ve been vibe coding for the last 12 months you’re at a disadvantage
your expectations of what models like opus 5.5 can do are probably too low and your workflow are probably too complex for their own good
you can literally just tell it what you want and it’ll do it. literally that’s it