Defence policy, space, cyberspace, metaverse, Lunapolitics and geopolitics wonk. Co-founder of @AstroAnalytica Слава Україні! 🇺🇦

United Kingdom
Joined August 2009
What happens when an ally can switch off your military capabilities? Ukraine's reported Starshield restrictions expose a dangerous paradox: a technically resilient satellite constellation can sustain a strategically fragile military force. A warning for Britain. 1/5🧵
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What was once politically unthinkable is becoming thinkable: Washington restricting access to essential military capabilities to influence allied decisions. The UK must question its dependence on systems whose availability is determined by political decisions made elsewhere. 4/5
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The answer isn't technological autarky, but assured access, selective sovereign investment, diversified suppliers, & freedom of military action. Military dependencies can become strategically intolerable in a crisis. My latest for @AstroAnalytica 5/5 END🧵orbitalforesight.substack.co…
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#Poland is rapidly becoming a serious @NATO military #space power. Its completed MikroGLOB optical constellation, POLSARIS radar capability, French imagery partnership, mobile #ISR cell, and ARGUS agency are the foundations of a national spacepower enterprise. 1/5🧵
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But success creates new interests. Once national warning, long-range fires, and military operations depend on space systems, their availability and freedom of action become strategic concerns. Resilience and passive protection are necessary, but insufficient. 4/5
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Poland must now contemplate space control: assuring access and freedom of action for Polish & allies while denying adversaries the use of space. See my latest for @AstroAnalytica 5/5 END🧵orbitalforesight.substack.co…
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Replying to @BBCNewsnight
@BBCNewsnight you missed a real opportunity to have a serious debate on the UK missile defence system proposed by the Tories; pretty much everyone involved in your piece had no idea about the issue, and it showed. The £10B price tag cited by Tories is likely unrealistic…1/2
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…but so is the £75-£100B you cited from Gen. Barrons, which you uncritically accepted. No one came out of that discussion looking informed or persuasive, whether pro or anti missile defence. You shouldn’t have even bothered with it. 2/2
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Strategic analogies are always limited in utility and are often misleading, whether used to think about AI, space, cyberspace, or other issues, and often lead to bad policy, CONOPS, & doctrine. 1/2 foreignaffairs.com/united-st…
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Strategic literacy needs to improve considerably. To use analogies is human, but is the 1st step in thinking an issue through, not the end state. Relatedly, failure to distinguish between the nature and character of war is a sure sign of strategic error. 2/2
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I wrote for @UnHerd on UK’s new space combat unit &c: ‘Innocuously named the “No. III Space Effects Squadron”, this is, in no uncertain terms, the first HM Armed Forces formation dedicated to fighting the King’s enemies in orbit.’ Rest, here 👇 unherd.com/newsroom/britain-…
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Russian hybrid warfare in the space domain, targeting Starlink’s ground segment. As @AstroAnalytica keeps warning, it’s the exposed ground segment that’s the real “thin waist” of space capability.
NEW: 🇵🇱 A fire broke out at a Starlink ground station in Poland, in Wola Krobowska, Mazovia, with firefighters reportedly treating it as arson. The fire damaged the station’s power supply infrastructure, while a power generator was also damaged. Police took over the scene, with Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ABW) and Central Police Bureau of Investigation (CBŚP) also notified. The station is operated by Exatel, Poland’s state-owned telecommunications company. The infrastructure at the site is used to transmit internet traffic across Poland and to Ukraine, and it also supports SpaceX systems providing connectivity through Starlink terminals. Deputy Prime Minister and Digital Affairs Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said there are indications that this could be another element of hybrid warfare and a deliberate attempt to disrupt an important internet hub. He stressed that it is too early to say who was responsible, but said the incident fits a broader pattern of sabotage threats against critical infrastructure. The fire was extinguished and services are investigating the circumstances
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I had the great pleasure to sit down with @EngelsbergIdeas podcast to discuss my two favourite topics, geopolitics and space, and all things in between!!
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Key statement by @ChiefofAirStaff today: “UK Defence is now developing capabilities for orbital warfare.” Sounds interesting? Then read my @ConGeostrategy report on precisely this topic, published this summer: “Embracing Orbital Warfare” 👇 geostrategy.org.uk/all-resea…
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The 2026 UK Space Strategy has arrived, and Britain is finally beginning to take space seriously. It’s a significant improvement because it treats space not simply as an economic sector, but as an instrument and enabler of national power. A short thread 🧵1/6
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That means responsive launch + satellites & payloads ready to go, mfg. capacity, resilient ground infrastructure, alternative SATCOM/PNT, & exercises demonstrating that capability can actually be restored under pressure. Otherwise, “responsive space” remains rhetoric. 5/6
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The Strategy gets much of the strategic logic right. Now comes the difficult part: implementation. The test by 2030 should be whether Britain has greater agency in space: Understand → Decide → Act → Endure → Regenerate. END 🧵6/6 orbitalforesight.substack.co…
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