Johnny

Lawyer by training. Trader by choice. The playbook: • Watchlist I know cold • Wait for risk/reward to flip in my favor • Strike with disciplined stops • Book the asymmetric move No hype. Just my reads. LFG 🚀

The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to U.S. officials cited in the WSJ, revealing weeks of previously undisclosed limited attacks despite President Trump's claim that Washington has not fought Iran for months. * Covert Strikes: Officials described the operations as defensive measures to prevent Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. Washington reportedly kept them quiet to avoid signaling a return to full-scale war. * Strategic Target: Qeshm hosts an underground missile facility, naval base and major desalination plant. The U.S. previously struck the island, and officials have discussed potentially seizing it. * Military Preparations: CENTCOM has positioned additional missile defenses and munitions for possible broader strikes. The administration reportedly warned Gulf countries to prepare for a short, intense operation after Tuesday's midterms. * Conflicting Signals: Trump denied considering post-election strikes and expressed optimism about diplomacy, although officials say military options remain under review. Iran insists Washington must act to secure a deal and threatens retaliation inside and outside the Middle East if major hostilities resume.

Tuesday morning earnings: the names to watch before the bell: 👀🔔 $SHOP — Street looking for $0.46. Biggest implied move of the morning at roughly ±13–14%. This is the read on merchant growth and consumer spending into the holidays. $PFE — $0.73 est. Stock sitting at a 52-week high with estimates revised DOWN into the print. Four straight beats, but the reactions have been muted. Watch oncology and the dividend coverage question. $MPLX — $1.12 est. Management promised a stronger back half and just raised the distribution 12.5% (8%+ yield). Q3 is the first test of whether the cash flow covers it. $ET — $0.41 est. Pipelines are the quiet winner of a $90+ crude world. $TEVA — $0.73 est. Generics pricing and the branded pipeline. Also, pre-market: $ETN $MPC $RACE. And the main event is after the close — $AMD. 🍿

Iran says talks with the U.S. to end the 8-month war are still alive after the Doha round ended with no deal. Mediators are shuttling a revised draft, and the clock is the midterms b/c of fears of renewed U.S. strikes after Tuesday. $USO $XLE $CL_F $BZ_F $XOM $CVX $OXY Tehran’s offer: a compressed plan it says could be done in 2 days: U.S. lifts the port blockade, Hormuz reopens, Iranian oil sales freed up, new sanctions scrapped. Nuclear talks only AFTER Iran verifies all that. Trump rejected the 7-day version in Sept. Trump says a deal “could happen.” Iranian sources think strikes are more likely. China and Russia are warning Washington off. ⚠️⚠️ Watch: $USO $XLE $CL_F $BZ_F $XOM $CVX $OXY — oil is the direct read. $FRO $STNG (tankers) if Hormuz actually reopens. $LMT $RTX $NOC if it doesn’t. $DAL $UAL on fuel. $VIX $SPY $GLD for the risk-off trade into election day.

Bloomberg: $PLCE The Children’s Place is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as next week. Zero surprise here. I’ve been walking past empty Children’s Place stores for years. Sometimes the best fundamental research is just looking through the window.

Apple ($AAPL) shares fell after the company forecast 7%–10% revenue growth for the December holiday quarter, disappointing investors despite Q4 revenue rising 12% to $114.5B. China sales also missed expectations. ⚠️The AI boom is eating at Apple’s margins. Memory costs, not demand, are what’s hurting $AAPL. 👇 * Rising Costs: CEO John Ternus called surging memory prices unprecedented, warning of further increases through December and beyond. June price hikes should help offset near-term pressure, while manufacturing costs have also risen. * Margins: Product gross margin reached 37.2%, up 100 bps YoY. Bloomberg Intelligence warned that rising memory costs remain a near-term margin risk. * Services Outlook: Services growth slowed to 9.8%, potentially missing expectations for 12% growth next quarter. Apple sees further revenue opportunities from its 2.5B installed devices, growing App Store traffic, Apple Pay in India and AI services. * AI Strategy: Ternus reaffirmed the iPhone's central role in AI but offered no clear roadmap for more autonomous AI agents. Usage limits on server-based AI features could encourage power users to upgrade to iCloud+. * Financial Strategy: Apple is moving away from its cash-neutral target. CFO Kevan Parekh said evaluating cash and debt separately would provide greater investment flexibility. * Unanswered Questions: Investors still lack clarity on China sales momentum and the iPhone Duo's holiday-quarter contribution amid supply constraints.

$AAPL CFO: MEMORY PURCHASE PRICES EXPECTED TO KEEP RISING. APPLE CFO: MANUFACTURING PURCHASE OBLIGATIONS ROSE BY $33 BILLION BETWEEN THE JUNE AND SEPTEMBER QUARTERS. $AAPL in AH: -3.42%

$AAPL CFO ON CONFERENCE CALL: 👇 •EXPECTS FISCAL Q1 GROSS MARGIN OF 45%–46%. •GROSS MARGIN FORECAST FACTORS IN MEMORY CHIP EXPENSES AND SIRI AI COSTS. •BOUGHT BACK $24 BILLION IN SHARES DURING FISCAL Q4. * ⁠APPLE CFO: EXPECTS SERVICES REVENUE TO GROW 8%–9% IN FISCAL Q1.

Grab ($GRAB) reported Q3 2026 revenue of $1.112B, up 27% YoY, while adjusted EBITDA surged 73% to $237M. The company raised its FY2026 revenue and profit outlook as monthly transacting users reached a record 57.2M. * Profitability: Operating profit jumped 297% to $108M; net profit rose to $18M from $17M, with diluted EPS of $0. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 565 bps to 21.3%. Operating cash flow improved to $55M from a $127M outflow; adjusted free cash flow grew 41% to $286M. * Platform Growth: Monthly users rose 20% YoY to 57.2M, while on-demand gross merchandise value (GMV) increased 18% to $6.835B. Revenue grew 30% on a constant-currency basis. * Segments: Deliveries revenue rose 21% to $561M (adjusted EBITDA +58% to $123M); Mobility grew 10% to $349M (EBITDA +15% to $207M). Financial Services revenue surged 124% to $201M. * Lending: Financial Services achieved its first positive adjusted EBITDA of $12M. Gross loans tripled to $2.71B, with a 2.6% nonperforming loan ratio and credit-loss reserves equal to 6.5% of loans. * Raised Guidance: FY2026 revenue increased to $4.15B–$4.20B (+23%–25% YoY) from $4.10B–$4.15B. Adjusted EBITDA raised to $790M–$800M (+58%–60%) from $720M–$740M. * Liquidity & Buybacks: Net cash liquidity totaled $5B; trailing 12-month adjusted free cash flow reached $533M, nearly doubling YoY. Grab repurchased $400M in shares during September–October, with $500M remaining authorized. * Taiwan Setback: Regulators rejected the foodpanda acquisition, triggering a $60M Q4 termination fee excluded from adjusted EBITDA.

After hour mover! 🔥🔥🔥 $FN +12.34%

Two Rocket Lab ($RKLB) insiders filed SEC notices on Nov. 2 proposing to sell a combined 151,083 shares valued at approximately $8.27M under previously adopted Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. * Adam Spice (Officer): Proposed selling 140,157 shares worth $7.67M, acquired through stock-option exercises on Nov. 2. His trading plan was adopted June 3, 2026. The filing also discloses five completed sales totaling 336,617 shares and $23.15M in gross proceeds from August through October. * Nina Armagno (Director): Proposed selling 10,926 shares worth approximately $598K, acquired through restricted stock units on Oct. 30. Her trading plan was adopted September 19, 2025, with no sales reported in the preceding three months. * Status: Both Form 144 filings are notices of intended sales, not confirmation that the proposed transactions were completed.

Palantir ($PLTR) revealed that a fine-tuned NVIDIA ($NVDA) Nemotron 3 Nano 4B model outperformed Claude Sonnet 5.5 and GPT-6 Astra at a fraction of the cost on a real-world construction customer task. * AI Benchmark: For McCarthy's document-request classification, Nemotron achieved ~73% balanced accuracy at $0.10 per million tokens, versus Claude's ~66% at $4 and GPT-6 Astra's ~62% at $20. The untuned Nemotron scored ~53%. * Productivity: Palantir projects 30,000 annual drafting hours saved for McCarthy. Results reflect this specific task, not overall model superiority. * NVIDIA Partnership: NVIDIA is training open models on proprietary supply chain data within Palantir's Ontology, spanning millions of parts and thousands of suppliers, to improve planning and decisions from chip manufacturing to AI deployment.

Institutional investors are pushing for a $1.5T–$1.6T valuation for Anthropic's planned November IPO, down from earlier expectations near $2T, following a tech selloff and growing concerns over AI spending, according to people familiar with the matter. $ANT $QQQ * Investor Concerns: Volatile markets, crowded AI investments, opposition to data centers and uncertainty over when companies like Amazon and Meta will generate meaningful AI profits. Recent double-digit declines in Intel and Alphabet intensified caution. * IPO Timeline: Roadshow could begin next week, with trading targeted for the week before Thanksgiving. Anthropic has not finalized its valuation, share count or offering price range. * Revenue: Anthropic disclosed $17B in revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up from $11.6B the previous quarter, despite $600M in price reductions from new models and contractual discounts. * AI Spending: Disclosed $895.4B in combined computing purchase and lease commitments, including $447.5B expected before 2031, with substantially all remaining spending expected between 2031 and 2045. * Market Expectations: Some investors favor conservative IPO pricing to encourage a first-day rally, potentially toward $2T in valuation. SpaceX gained 30% on its June debut. Other companies are awaiting Anthropic's reception before pursuing listings, potentially unlocking more IPOs in early 2027.

$ANT $QQQ

$IIPR : Innovative Industrial Properties FFO of $1.80 beats by $0.19, revenue of $64.92M beats by $3.25M

$RIG: Transocean GAAP EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.01, revenue of $937B beats by $936.06B

$CRC / $BE: California Resources’ Carbon TerraVault signed a nonbinding MOU with Bloom Energy to study 1 GW+ of fuel-cell power with carbon capture and storage in California for data centers, utilities and industrials. The stack: Bloom’s solid-oxide cells make the power → third-party systems capture the CO₂ → CTV stores it underground. Why Bloom: solid-oxide exhaust is concentrated CO₂, far cheaper to capture than turbine flue gas. Scale: up to 3M tons/yr of CO₂ for CTV’s storage business. Mix of grid-connected plants (Central/Northern CA) and behind-the-meter supply at CRC’s Central Valley sites. Context: CTV’s second 1 GW power+storage MOU — Net Power signed a near-identical one in Dec 2024. Neither is binding yet. The thesis is clear; execution is the trade.

Gulf diplomacy on two tracks today: $USO $XLE 🇶🇦→🇮🇷 Qatari delegation led by a senior adviser to the PM/FM in Tehran for consultations. Doha still working the US-Iran channel. 🇸🇦↔🇺🇸 Saudi Defense Minister KBS tells Hegseth he’s pushing regional de-escalation while the Houthis keep hitting the Kingdom. 💣 Read: everyone wants off-ramps. The Houthis aren’t offering one. Oil’s tell. ✅