Jonathan Chaumont

NEW: The Kremlin has been rejecting any large-scale frontline ceasefire since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered it in March 2025, despite taking enormous Russian casualties for very limited territorial gains. (1/2)

Other key takeaways from this week's Occupation Update: - Russian officials have deported a 10-year-old girl from Donetsk Oblast to Russia and are distorting the child’s story to frame the deportation as humanitarianism in Russian mass media. - Russia’s child welfare and humanitarian assistance policies in occupied Kherson Oblast are leading to family-child separation and the transfer of children to Russian state-run institutions further within occupied territory. - Russia is intensifying efforts to standardize Russian language and literature education in occupied Ukraine as a tool of integrating Ukrainian youth into the Russian sociocultural sphere, but may be encountering some challenges to the practical implementation of its language policies in occupied areas. - The Crimean occupation administration continues to encourage youth participation in drone competitions to interest and prepare Ukrainian youth for future service in the Russian military. - Russian occupation officials continue to initiate youth in occupied territories into Russian state institutions through military-patriotic programming. - The Mariupol occupation administration appears to have begun a new wave of forced evictions using “squatting” (unauthorized use of land) laws. - Russian occupation officials may be using civilian evacuations from frontline areas to pressure Ukrainian civilians into accepting Russian passports. Russian occupation authorities continue to prosecute Ukrainian minors for alleged terrorism-related cases. Courts in Russia and occupied Ukraine continue to harshly punish residents of occupied Ukraine in high-profile treason or terrorism cases.

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ - Ukrainian forces recently advanced south of Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced southeast of Dobropillya. - Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to falsely portray Ukraine as the party responsible for the humanitarian catastrophe in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, where the limited ceasefire continues without reported violations. - The Kremlin is attempting to drive a wedge between European countries in an attempt to undermine Europe’s negotiating position on the war in Ukraine and exclude European representatives from peace talks so long as they refuse to accept Russia’s demands, including NATO’s rollback to its 1997 borders. - The Kremlin is also likely setting conditions that would require Ukraine to make unilateral concessions before Russia agrees to engage in any meaningful peace negotiations in any format.

MORE: The October 29 strikes are part of Russia’s continued effort to launch daytime strikes to make daily life in Ukraine untenable, inflict significant civilian casualties, and damage Ukraine’s economy. Russian forces have increased the brutality and lethality of their strike campaign throughout 2026, including conducting prolonged daytime and nighttime strike packages over several days designed to maximize civilian harm, leveraging vulnerabilities in Ukrainian air defenses, and introducing new technological adaptations like quasi-cruise missiles such as Banderols. Russia’s October 29 long-range strikes, including against the Dnipro City railway station, demonstrate that Russia can inflict severe civilian harm when even a small percentage of drones penetrate Ukrainian defenses. Moscow is attempting to impose additional costs on the Ukrainian population ahead of Winter 2026-2027, as the Kremlin likely assesses that these long-range strikes can distract from Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes and ultimately force Ukraine into capitulation by making daily civilian life untenable.

NEW: Russian forces conducted devastating daytime long-range drone and loitering munition strikes against Ukraine on October 29, killing at least 19 and injuring at least 82. (1/2)