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Virus begins in China;
CCP suppress information;
Sporadic outbreaks, rumors, and uncertainty;
Virus escapes China;
Americans ignore due to an election;
World eventually becomes concerned.
World War Z is such a great book.
Ha! Believe it when I see it.
The Chinese BRI is a domestic policy tool - primarily a global yield hunt & way to dump surplus production. Meanwhile, the U.S. evaluates developing world credit opportunities like they are aid grants. Apples to oranges.
politico.eu/article/g7-unvei…
The most recent @DallasFed Survey to Oil and Gas executives is a good read for anyone interested in US Domestic Oil Production. Theme of the day is supply chain disruptions. A short thread.
#energy #Fed
dallasfed.org/research/surve…
Second area is price.
The survey predicts an average price of $107 for WTI at the end of 2022; however, the response distribution to this question demonstrates the continued uncertainty regarding oil price outlook.
High Price was $160.
Low Price was $65.
ECB held an emergency meeting today, focused on the widening spread gap between various EU nations. Appears the plan is to use the capital from PEPP maturing bonds and reinvest it into the BTp. Oh, Italy, as if we could have a crisis without you!
ilsole24ore.com/art/bce-socc…
Constraints and tradeoffs.
1. Economic: Price stability v. Recession.
2. Political: Green transition v. Energy volatility.
3. Geopolitical: NatSec v. Macroeconomic growth.
4. Legal: Aristocratic v. Democratic decision-making.
Jon Czas retweeted
#China's intra-city mobility - measured by mass transportation is at pre-Covid levels in #Chengdu and #Chongqign but not anywhere else. #Shanghai worst but also #Beijing is really bad. #Zhengzhou even worse and also #Shuzhou very low. #Nanjing #Guangzhou at half the mobility
Jon Czas retweeted
Timeline of 🇩🇪's @OlafScholz's many lies:
1) At the end of February Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a long list of all available weapons.
2) Scholz doesn't share the list with Ukraine.
3) Scholz says that there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine.
1/7
The Chinese zero covid policy is here to stay. It takes time for the lockdowns' impacts to fully manifest on global air cargo/supply chain, but just wait. Just another destabilizing event on top of food/commodity inflation. This is going to be a rough Q2.
freightwaves.com/news/anothe…
Jon Czas retweeted
PMI activity components for March: 74% of countries are in expansion
√ 27% accelerating: main commo exporters (Brazil, Canada, Norway & south Africa) with surprisingly Hungary
√ 47% decelerating
√ 26% deteriorating: Russia the most
Increased uncertainty, rapidly changing individual de-risking approaches, & evolving market segmentation. Price seeks equilibrium, but this is messy.
argusmedia.com/blog/2022/apr…
Yes, I picked St. Peter's over Kentucky. No, I did not expect them to actually win - my father went to the school. He adored college basketball and as a kid I would update him on how St. Peter's was doing in the MAAC. Way to go Peacocks! #PeacockPower
Jon Czas retweeted
#Latam Charts Weekly (March 10): Two Weeks and Counting. Two weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the human and economic costs mount. Full Report: ms.spr.ly/6014wjj0C #EmergingMarkets
UAE first OPEC nation to call for boost in oil production. Next scheduled meeting is March 31st.
ft.com/content/81630924-deb4… via @financialtimes