@Bloomberg | Forever recovering hill staffer & campaign flack | Views are mine

New York, NY
Joined July 2011
Labour politicians in the UK are now testing messages on AI-generated voters. Faster and far cheaper than traditional focus groups, but @pewresearch found synthetic “twins” were off from real people by 12 points on average. Scoop from @JacobReid02 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Hitting Iran again may be the easy part. Ending the war is much harder. Bloomberg Geoeconomics' @becca_wasser maps how even successful strikes may not last, with Iran able to rebuild and broader escalation raising risks to Gulf energy & infrastructure. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/st…
President Trump tonight tells me the U.S. is not negotiating with Iran and something will happen “fairly soon.” @NewsNation
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United CEO Scott Kirby is doubling down on a national wealth tax, saying it’s unfair that the richest Americans can watch their fortunes grow while much of that wealth growth goes untaxed. The top 1% hold roughly a third of U.S. wealth.
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A useful reality check on the US Russia diesel deal. Bloomberg Economics estimates more Russian supply would trim only about $4 to $5 from the roughly $100 increase in global diesel prices since the Iran war began.
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Interesting counterpoint to the pullback from ESG branding. Blackstone just raised $8.7B for an energy transition fund, 55% more than its last one. The label may be less prominent, but capital is still flowing to the underlying strategy. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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15 days until the US midterms - an election that could prove historic. Join us for a briefing on the odds of a blue wave, the implications for domestic and foreign policy, and the potential changes to the regulatory environment for US businesses. Starring @nathandeanDC, @ChrisJKennedy, @dflakoll, @NYCStein, and @lyndsayhoward. Wednesday, Oct 28 at 10 am ET No @TheTerminal subscription required Details and registration here: events.bloombergevents.com/e… Chart credit: @NicoleGorton and @ChrisJKennedy
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France’s 10-year yield now at 5% as investors weigh a ratings review, an unresolved 2027 budget, election uncertainty and unrest that’s weighing on growth. Rising US and German yields could push borrowing costs even higher.
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In Baltimore, gun violence and vacant housing have reached their lowest levels in decades. It’s a reminder of what cities can accomplish with bold ideas, strong partnerships and an unwavering focus on results. I was glad to welcome @MayorBMScott the #BloombergAmericanHealthSummit26 to discuss the progress Baltimore has made and the work still ahead.
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WSJ: “Some U.S. officials say that Musk acted unilaterally and that Trump didn’t specifically order any retribution against Ukraine. But a person familiar with the situation said Musk talked to multiple senior administration officials, including with Trump, before imposing the new speed cap, which Ukrainian officials said had allowed Russian missiles to evade their defenses.”
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Hyperscaler CDS premiums are climbing, with @Meta, @Google, @Google, @amazon and @Microsoft all at their highest levels since inception. A notable shift in how markets are viewing the financial risk around even the biggest names in tech.
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Polling 2 weeks out from the midterms: ~71% now call gas unaffordable, up from 28% in February, per @ABC/@wapo/@Ipsos ~8 in 10 registered voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, per @APNORC ~58% say Trump’s policies are hurting the country, per @NBCNews
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The fight for the Senate is heating up in farm country. Diesel is still around $6/gallon in Kansas during harvest, with tariffs adding another squeeze. Bloomberg Geoeconomics lead @ChrisJKennedy looks at how those pressures are playing into Senate races. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/st…
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Iran’s inflation is nearing 90% but even that may not break the stalemate. Bloomberg Middle East Geoeconomics Lead @DEsfandiary on why both sides think the other will blink first, raising the risk of renewed fighting Read the analysis on @TheTerminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/st…
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Worth watching how tariffs play into the fight for the Senate. Bloomberg Economics' @NicoleGorton, @tdurie95 & @ChrisJKennedy map where the pressures are hitting hardest, from higher prices in TX to weaker exports in IA and MI. Subscribe to Fault Lines: bbgevent.app/economics-subsc…
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A big economic twist of the war is oil prices are higher but there are fewer Gulf petrodollars to invest abroad. @ZiadMDaoud finds weaker exports & higher spending at home are projected to shrink the region’s investment pool by nearly 2/3 Read more on @TheTerminal via BECO <GO>
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One chart that shows how unevenly the Iran war is hitting Middle East oil producers. Oman and the UAE are coming out ahead, while Qatar and Iraq have seen export revenues fall nearly 50%.
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