5 HUGE DEALS IN THE MARKET THAT ARE DOWN OVER 45% FROM HIGHS
1.
$IREN
Microsoft $9.7B 5 year AI cloud contract
NVIDIA $3.4B 5 year contract
Down 68% from highs
Forward P/S 2.30
Price to book 2.3
2.
$SOFI
19 straight quarters of beats
30% rev cagr through 2028
40% eps cagr through 2028
Down 55% from highs
Forward PE 18.8
Price to book 1.65
Price to tangible book 2.0
3.
$CELH
Down 56% from high
Alani should be worth more than the whole market cap
Celsius brand internal expansion coming
Forward PE 16.8
4.
$NBIS
Meta up to $27B 5 year deal
Microsoft $17.4B to $19.4B deal
Down 47% from highs
Forward P/S 4.1
Price to book 4.2
5.
$FPS
Came out and said they are beating highs of guidance this quarter
competitive advantage in lead times of 30-50% faster electrical distribution and power systems
Down 61% from high
Forward PE 16.3
Which deal is the biggest?
WHILE ELON MUSK SAYS WE WONT NEED NEO CLOUDS MY $IREN VALUATION MODELS FROM BEAR CASE TO BULL CASE RANGE FROM AN
8X TO AN 81X BY EOY 2030.
CAPACITY BROUGHT ON EACH YEAR:
Bull Case: 300 mw 2026, 500 mw 2027, 700 mw 2028, 900 mw 2029, 1100 mw 2030
Base case 300 mw 2026, 500 mw a year 2027-2030
Bear case: 300 mw 2026, 200 mw 2027, 500 mw 2028-2030
COMPUTE PRICING:
Bull Case: 23 m/mw in 2027, 30 m/mw 2028-2030
Base Case: 20 m/mw 2027, 22.5 m/mw 2028, 25 m/mw 2029-2030
Bear Case: 20 m/mw 2027, 15 m/mw 2028, 14 m/mw 2029, 11.5 m/mw 2030
EBITDA/EBIT MARGINS
Bull Case: 75% EBITDA Margins/60% EBIT Margins
Base Case: 70% EBITDA Margins/52.5% EBIT Margins
Bear Case: 60% EBITDA Margins/40% EBIT Margins
PREPAYMENTS:
Bull: 50% prepayment 2027, 60% 2028-2030
Base: 46% prepayments 2027, 54.5% 2028-2030
Bear: 46% prepayments 2027, 54.5% 2028-2030
Dilution Added In for All
20% Dilution in 2027
18 Million shares in 2029 from convertibles
12 million shares in 2030 from convertibles
First off this is incredibly bullish for $IREN
Elon is basically making the recognition that the demand for compute is going to exceed the amount of power that can be brought to the market.
Demand up, supply not catching up means compute pricing up.
Elon is talking about $CRWV here as a company who could have their debt market shut off. Maybe do not lever up your balance sheet to where you are trading at less of a market cap than debt. A 0.10 cash to debt ratio.
Then also have your contracts at cheaper prices so you have lower margins.
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
MY NEW $IREN BULL CASE IS A 93X BY END OF 2030!!
Inputs- Going up 200 mw a year like the 300 mw>500 mw from 2026>2027 due to the $NVDA DSX AI Factory Platform that will help $IREN build and deploy data centers faster
500 MW Brought on 2027
700 MW Brought on 2028
900 MW Brought on 2029
1.1 GW Brought on 2030
Pricing> due to compute prices up 70% in the last 6 months and keep rising
2027 Deals start a 22.5 m/mw and go up to 25 m/mw
2028>2030 Deals are 30 m/mw reflecting higher compute demand
Margins>
80% EBITDA Margin which is still less than the 85% generated for the $MSFT deal
65% EBIT margins scaling up with EBITDA
Prepayments go from 55% of deal size to 60% of deal size in 2028>2030
Capex adjusted up for bringing on extra mw scaling at todays prices
No dilution and no debt raise needed due to higher pricing of compute and bigger prepayments
$SOFI reports Tuesday. WHY ARE YOU SELLING AND NOT BUYING?
1. $SOFI products
Record 2.2M products added last quarter
Total products 24.4M, up 42%
Added 2x as many products as members
2. Credit is getting better
Personal loan charge off rate 2.62%, down 41 basis points from the prior quarter
Total loan charge off rate 1.81%, down from 2.12% last year
Student loan charge off rate 0.61%
3. Guidance went up
Original guidance assumed 2 rate cuts in 2026
Now assumes 1 to 2 rate hikes instead
Revenue guidance still raised to $4.75B to $4.85B, up 32% to 35%
Original guidance was about 30% growth
PROJECTIONS:
Tangible book value per share today $7.34
Price today $14.62, which is 2.0x tangible book
Tangible book growth of 35% a year projected
2027
Tangible book $9.91
1.0x $9.91 -32%
2.0x $19.82 +36%
3.0x $29.73 +103%
4.0x $39.64 +171%
5.0x $49.55 +239%
6.0x $59.45 +307%
2028
Tangible book $13.38
1.0x $13.38 -9%
2.0x $26.75 +83%
3.0x $40.13 +174%
4.0x $53.51 +266%
5.0x $66.89 +357%
6.0x $80.26 +449%
2029
Tangible book $18.06
1.0x $18.06 +24%
2.0x $36.12 +147%
3.0x $54.18 +271%
4.0x $72.24 +394%
5.0x $90.30 +518%
6.0x $108.35 +641%
2030
Tangible book $24.38
1.0x $24.38 +67%
2.0x $48.76 +234%
3.0x $73.14 +400%
4.0x $97.52 +567%
5.0x $121.90 +734%
6.0x $146.28 +901%
$IREN IS DOWN 63% FROM HIGHS AND YOU ARE BEARISH ON IT?
If you are worried, you have to remember if you liked it in the 60’s the 50’s the 40’s and the 30’s. YOU have a cheaper company now WITH BETTER FUNDAMENTALS.
They are about to start signing 2027 capacity
Compute prices are 2x since their last deals
They have a reported Anthropic deal
Their margins are going to go up with higher compute prices.
They own the power land and infrastructure while other Neo clouds are struggling to get permits.
What happens when demand goes up and supply goes down?
Ask yourself that question and then ask am I bearish because of the price or fundamentals?
WHAT BEATEN DOWN SECTOR AND STOCKS ARE YOU TARGETING?
NEOCLOUDS down 45%
$IREN down 68%: Forward P/S 2.34
$NBIS down 47%: Forward P/S 4.14
$CRWV down 62%: Forward P/S 1.36
AI POWER down 31%
$FPS down 63%: Forward PE: 15.5
$VST down 31%: Forward PE: 13.8
SEMICONDUCTORS down 26%
$AMD down 22%: Forward PE 36.3
$NVDA down 13%: Forward PE 15.0
$INTC down 39%: Forward PE 43.4
$MU down 30%: Forward PE 4.8
FINTECH down 23%
$SOFI down 55%: Forward PE 18.8
$HOOD down 37%: Forward PE 29.2
$AXP down 19%: Forward PE 15.9
CONSUMER down 10%
$CELH down 56%: Forward PE 17.3
$GRAB down 55%: Forward PE 17.0
$PEP down 21%: Forward PE 15.8
$MCD down 27%: Forward PE 18.3
PRICE TO BOOK PROJECTIONS $SOFI
Price today: $14.62
Book value per share: $8.58
P/B Value : 1.70
Estimate: Book value grows 35% a year while eps grows 40% a year
CEO Anthony Noto says $SOFI should be valued at a 5-6 price to book value like a $AXP
Book value per share:
2027: $11.58
2028: $15.64
2029: $21.11
2030: $28.50
2028
1.70x: $26.58, +82%
2.0x: $31.27, +114%
2.5x: $39.09, +167%
3.0x: $46.91, +221%
4.0x: $62.55, +328%
5.0x: $78.19, +435%
2029
1.70x: $35.89, +145%
2.0x: $42.22, +189%
2.5x: $52.78, +261%
3.0x: $63.33, +333%
4.0x: $84.44, +478%
5.0x: $105.55, +622%
2030
1.70x: $48.45, +231%
2.0x: $57.00, +290%
2.5x: $71.25, +387%
3.0x: $85.50, +485%
4.0x: $114.00, +680%
5.0x: $142.50, +875%
Even at today's 1.70 price to book value with no re rating, book growth alone is a 35% a year gain
$IREN is in over a 50%+ drawdown BUT MY CONVICTION has never been higher
From compute prices 2x
To rumored anthropic deal
To now trading under 1.0 my projected 2028 revenue i belive this is a huge deal in the market.
Tune in Tuesday night for the deep $IREN numbers and breakdown for why I am extremely bullish right now.
Drawdowns suck but $IREN’s fundamentals have never been stronger.
@Joseph_Invests and I will discuss how $1,000+ $IREN (~40x) is possible in 2030.
xitter.cf/i/spaces/1AxRnZDlrraxl
Good model by @LeifInvests here go check it out if you are a $ORCL shareholder.
I am very close to what he has for eps and fcf in my models. I am with him in that they return back to fcf positive in 2029.
The real question to ask for $ORCL in my opinion is the same one you should ask yourself for $IREN, $NBIS, and other neo clouds.
Can they get the permits and execute building of data centers and will an ai bubble not blow up in the next few years. I think that should be what people ask not will they actually have earnings or fcf. Because if there is no tight credit or a huge crash they all should succeed.
ATTENTION ALL $ORCL BEARS. 🚨
THIS ONE'S FOR YOU! 🐻
This might be the most RIDICULOUS valuation disconnect in the market.
Valuation: Less than 15x forward earnings.
Backlog: $664B vs. $382B market cap.
Revenue: Nearly 50% of backlog expected to be recognized within 3 years.
But here's the REAL question:
Can Oracle finance its MASSIVE AI expansion without drowning in debt?
Bears point to rising debt, CDS spreads, enormous CapEx, lease obligations, and OpenAI's financial risks.
So I built a detailed financial model through FY2030 and examined EACH of these concerns.
My projections suggest a path to SIGNIFICANT deleveraging and cash flow growth, even with elevated CapEx.
The numbers tell a VERY different story.
Full thesis below. 🧵👇
Top 2 Companies I would buy puts on if I wanted protection in the market (Not Financial Advice)
$CRWD and $TSLA
$CRWD $257 today> Why in the world should a company that is going to grow at a low 20's rev cagr and under a 30% eps growth by 2030 be trading at a 171 forward pe and a 37.6 forward price to sales?
171 forward pe
161 2y forward pe
37.6 forward price to sales
2026-2030 analyst rev growth cagr 22%
2028 EPS: $1.60
2029 EPS: $2.09
2030 Analyst projected eps: $2.44
End of 2028 Valuation
100 FPE: $209
50 FPE: $104
$TSLA> Dropped 75% in 2022, No Elon premium when market gets hit
187 forward pe
181 forward pe
12.3 forward price to sales
2026-2030 analyst rev growth cagr 20.5%
2026-2030 eps cagr 52.0%
2029 EPS:2.86
End of 2028 Valuation
100 FPE: $286
50 FPE: $143
$IREN IS CHEAPER THAN ITS IPO PRICE WITH HUGE CATALYSTS INCOMING
IPO price Nov 2021: $28
Price today: $24.91
11% below IPO price
Market cap today: $9.8B
P/S: 2.333
My revenue projection FY 2028: $11.18B
CATALYSTS COMING
1. Horizon 2-4 delivery to $MSFT, targeted Q4 2026
2. Anthropic deal, reported by The Information
3. New 2027 deals, recent contracts at more than $20M per MW while Wall Street is valuing $IREN at 13 m/mw deals
5. $4B ARR target by Dec 31, 2026, $1B operating today
At 4 ARR: 16 B MC
At 6 ARR: 24 B MC
At 8 ARR: 32 B MC
At 10 ARR: 40 B MC
$IREN BASE CASE SIMPLE TTM P/S ESTIMATES RANGE
Today: $24.91
2027 ARR: $13.9B
Shares: 472.8M (20% dilution)
4x: $118 (+372%)
6x: $176 (+608%)
8x: $235 (+844%)
10x: $294 (+1,080%)
2028 ARR: $25.2B
Shares: 472.8M (no new dilution)
4x: $213 (+754%)
6x: $319 (+1,181%)
8x: $426 (+1,608%)
10x: $532 (+2,035%)
2029 ARR: $37.7B
Shares: 472.8M (no new dilution)
4x: $319 (+1,179%)
6x: $478 (+1,818%)
8x: $637 (+2,457%)
10x: $796 (+3,097%)
2030 ARR: $50.2B
Shares: 472.8M (no new dilution)
4x: $424 (+1,603%)
6x: $636 (+2,455%)
8x: $849 (+3,307%)
10x: $1,061 (+4,158%)
The 20% dilution happens in 2027, and shares are held flat after that due to raising debt instead
$IREN is still at a 2.40 forward price to sales ratio
This is a company who will be growing revenue at a 100%+ CAGR over the next few years
Will be signing deals with compute priced double what it is priced today
Trading at a 10 b market cap with 7.6 billion cash on the balance sheet
Debt is not due till 2029-2033, and is yielding 1%
In my opinion a lot of people are ignoring the blowing out of every hyper scalers credit spreads. $META and the rest of them are starting to spend inordinate amounts of money. $META will spend 40-50 billion of capex in Q4 and will go even more fcf negative.
On top of that all of these hyper scalers have huge amounts of off balance sheet debt.
$META's EV is 35% higher if you factor in that 750 billion of off balance sheet debt. The other Mag 7 names are not much better.
This is why as big of a $IREN bull as I am I am not crazy heavy in a position.
I prefer to have the vast majority of my account in companies that are asset light like $ZETA and actually a beneficiary if all of these ai labs have problems.
Companies that perform in every credit/rate environment like $SOFI that are trading close to price to book value.
Or consumer defensive companies like $CELH that are already trading cheap that even if the ai/tech erupts stay up and money rotates.
What $IREN CEO Dan Roberts said yesterday
token demand has went up 34x this year
2027 capacity is effectively sold out
2027 and 2028 capacity could be sold out
there are multiple people having demand for any gpu coming online
As long as we do not have a debt bubble soon which will crash every stocks, $IREN has many catalysts:
Horizon 2-4 delivery
"anthropic deal"
new deals for 2027 should start to be announced soon to early 2027
new deal pricing that is double their old deals

































