Last year, I did a Hindsight Bias Buster quiz on @Journalytic. The goal was to make a few predictions for 2024 and see how they turned out a year later. I just got a reminder to look at the results, and they blew me away! 1⃣ What will the return on the TSX SmallCap Index be next year? Answer: +19% Result: +18.8% 2⃣ What will be the return on the Russell MicroCap Index (IWC) next year? Answer: +35% Result: +12% 3⃣ Will US smallcaps outperform large caps (Russell 2000 vs 1000)? Answer: Yes Result: No (10% vs 23%) 4⃣ My top pick for next year? Answer: $PNG.V because it's cheap (5.5x forward EBITDA), growing quickly with strong tailwinds (military spending) and is starting to get discovered by institutions. Result: +323% return Yes, $PNG.V was trading at 5.5x EBITDA... Crazy, right? 5⃣ My wildcard pick for next year? Answer: $BRM.V because it's extremely cheap (3.4x forecasted 2024 EBITDA). The key was delivering and replenishing the backlog (which they did). Result: +205% return 6⃣ The stock in my portfolio that I have the least conviction in at the current price? Answer: $INEO.V because of delays in executing and showing sustainable growth. I was also worried they might blow up the cap structure if they had to raise more capital (which is exactly what happened). Result: -20% return (fortunately, I sold the stock during the year) 7⃣ The most attractive stock I don't own? Answer: $VHI.TO, which I thought was a high-quality compounder with a solid management team. I was hoping for a 15-20% pullback to buy it at around 10x EBITDA. It did not happen... Result: +176% return (I totally missed this one) I did the same exercise for 2025, and it's already off to a solid start. Should I share my picks? 😃