Jun

SPY closed below its 50SMA and it may take some time to repair itself. Yeah, cash is the good option for now. But, I prefer to pay close attention to their rally attempt in detail, rather than shorting here or looking for stocks breaking out to new high ground. Because I also like to find great opportunities in the dip. During market downturns, potential leaders may show their strength, but sometimes I believe it's just a few lone wolves, and at some point the market will force them down, especially if the market's down cycle is just beginning. I'd rather wait for the stocks to correction enough in line with the market, and pay attention when one of them stands out on day 1 of a rally attempt. That's better than jumping into the highs just because something has a high RS in the correction. So my strategy here is neither shorting nor buying strength, I'm just waiting for a buyable dip or rally attempt. Sometimes the details that emerge from a dip can give an early indication of new and young leadership.

Owning $SSO, $CAVA, $GEV, $ONON, $AAPL, $PLTR, $SN In the last two weeks, trailing stops on $NVDA, $AVGO, $TSLA, $RKT were triggered, resulting in nice profits. While AVGO sold off at a relatively favorable price, NVDA did not, giving back some of its gain on earnings, but it was well worth such expectation. $NOW, $CEG closed with a small win; the move was not dynamic while I held it. I was able to buy $PLTR at the 21EMA U&R. This is my favorite way to start position. And I bought $SN near the opening price on Friday - it was a perfect OEL, and looked likely to run straight out to fill the wick. So i decided like that. And Its strong close convinced me to take a holiday risk. I also took $GEV again on 8/27; it had knocked me out on 8/23. I tried $RDDT and $IBB, but the results were not good. For now, growth stocks in other space have been added to my portfolio instead of large tech names. I'm happy that my trades are in sync a bit with the market environment, but I don't want to act as an extreme on/off. So the big tech names are still at the top of the list.

As the FTD progresses well since Aug 13, I maintain long bias along the 10/21ema. I am interested in support levels, not resistance levels. I use my moving averages as a guide and ride them to play out. If that MAs are going in the right direction and my positions are staying above them, I don't have to feel bearish. But that doesn't mean I'm letting positions sit idle, though. I've trimmed a few into the strength to maintain my equity curve smooth. I took partial profits on $NVDA and $AVGO, and bought new ones, but overall no dramatic changes to the portfolio. Still focusing on cores like $NVDA, $CAVA etc.. throughout the year. I also nailed down $TSLA for 8% gain, looks like $TSLA needs time to make solid trend. It was my favorite short-term swing trade. Start taking some profits when it runs up for 3-5 days, and exit the remaining as it violates the moving averages. Then add that gain to your core positions, or finance it as risk on new trades. I've recently been involved with $RDDT, $FOUR, $ONON and am riding the trend, sitting tight on $RKT as it's moving better than I expected. $CAVA is one of the biggest promising stock. In the meantime, I lost money on $GEV, $FSLR. I made an impatient trade on $FSLR. There are tons of ideas right now, like $VST, $TLN, $CART, $SN, $COHR, $APP, $ANET... but should focus on managing my positions first. I'm not very good at trading $BTC stuffs and have made a lot of mistakes, so I'm completely missing out of that space.

Owning $SSO, $AAPL, $NVDA, $AVGO, $NOW, $CAVA, $TSLA, $RKT, and took pilot buy $CEG and $GEV yesterday. Now my question is where to put the trailing stops. For example in the case of NVDA,  have to decide whether to stick with the B/E (around 107), ride the 10/21ema, or trim on a quick reversal down. This can differ from day by day. So at this point rather than getting overwhelmed with new ideas, I'd like to focus on evaluating own situation and each position... Evaluation leads to better decision.

We all want a simple process, but in order for it to be simple, In my humble opinion, you don't want to over-optimize your rules. For example, to follow the advice of "buy from the knee and sell from the shoulder", you don't need to execute exactly and perfectly at the right time. Sometimes you'll catch the bottom and chase the highs. Nevertheless, if my "average" buying costs are at the knee and my "average" selling costs are at the shoulder, the result is the same. And much more flexible. If you have too many rules and are too rigid... As you require a perfect execution that’s often unrealistic, you'll get random results when you break any of them. So, Build a process that allows you to make a few mistakes and still have a consistent average result. That's what really helped my mindset improve. you can protect your process more naturally and easily without having to exert superhuman discipline every moment.

It's a good idea to set your own safety belt, whether it's 50sma or 200sma. You can be wrong often, but you should avoid blowing out your account in a market meltdown. If a fire starts, first get rid of any flammable materials. I personally avoid overnight risk when the market is trading below the 50SMA because I believe the risk of gap down increases from there. I don't care about whether I was wrong or right; I'm only interested in what's going to happen next, and what decisions I need to make in real time. That's all the work you need to do.

I see a lot of S-MID names on my screen. I'm trying a few of them incrementally. $CART, $HOOD, $CRS, $ZETA, $WRBY, $TGTX... These are some of the names that have caught my eye lately. There are many more, but I can't even mention them all. In fact, there are so many names standing out so you could just say any name ripping up on the day. But some of them will be nothing more than random stocks. Now we have to do the most fun part of this business, which is narrowing down our focus. I'm not interested in casting a net for 2000 stocks. If you need that, one ETF is enough as your core holdings, the rest is a matter of finding a few potential big winners. And It should be "growth" stocks, not cyclical stocks. Because growth stocks grow. It doesn't matter if it's swing trading or position trading - in the end, there will be fewer than 10 stocks that we will trade multiple times or hold long term. If you approach market rotation with that in mind, at least you won't be messing up your trades with random names.

Rotation into small and mid-cap stocks is occurring after CPI. However, the expectation of rotation has often appeared throughout the year, but never materialized. I'm not saying it will be the same this time. But when something happens, It's just a matter of how you adapt to it, how you accept it, and how you prepare for the next play. If you've seen something change with a big move, you should pay attention to it, no matter what it is you have. I held a lot of mega-cap tech, and I had to give some of that profit back, but I don't care. I want to see what happens next, and then I want to be a part of it. If it takes away an environment that is comfortable for me, I will try to reacquaint myself with the new environment. Plus, I believe that things about the market can change quickly, but it's not a complete on/off mechanism. So I want to explore new scenarios incrementally rather than changing all my hands at once. For now, I'm going to see if mega-cap tech is as resilient as it has been, and to do so, I'm leaving trailing stops on the my position. Looking at the dip-buying opportunities in the #1 group, such as Semis, is a priority. On the other hand, I took on a few new positions to see how solid the rotation would be, progressively. $VRNS is one of them. I'm also taking note of potential ideas like $CART, $SQ, $CEG, $ASPN, $GRBK etc. The great thing about this business is that you can test your ideas for a small amount of cost. Eventually you will get the size what you want, and realize that is only for those who are prepared with a process and mindset.

I currently own these names : $LLY, $META, $NVDA, $GEV, $AMD, $TSLA, $MU With the exception of MU, I raised the stops on all positions. Most of these stocks are probably familiar to you. That's what the market is telling us. Peter Lynch said the best stocks are the ones you already own. Could this be due to the narrow breadth? Well, actually I think this has always been the way market work. I don't want the issue of market breadth to lower the quality of my decision-making. Why not work with the market instead of against it? Some people listen to what the market is saying, while others are too busy pushing their own views to pay attention. Lately, the market has been rewarding me for buying more of stuffs I already own and punishing me for buying new ideas. I don't know about others, but that's the feedback I've gotten. There is no choice but to follow it. I am almost 90% invested. And I'm looking for buying opportunities with the remaining 10%, but I keep getting stopped out of new entries. So it will probably end up being added to the position I am currently holding.

I believe that psychological issues in trading are not solved by willpower alone. It seems unrealistic to think that an allergy sufferer can overcome their allergies with only mental effort. I have asthma. I can't control it. But I can manage it by building routines so it doesn't interfere with my life. Mistakes are inevitable. Trying to completely eliminate mistakes is the realm of fantasy. If mistakes are the cost of the game, you'll want to manage them rather than avoid them. For me, accepting this fact was the first step. I then began to modify my trading system around the areas where I was psychologically vulnerable. I didn't try to get rid of my weaknesses; I just made them less serious. Because, I wanted to embrace my weaknesses as part of my trading system. I still make tons of mistakes, but I no longer self-destruct over them like I used to in the past. Sometimes your psychological problems can be mitigated by process, habit, priorities, skill and knowledge, external framework... SYSTEM. That's how you get to "style" in my opinion. Beyond duplicating someone else's methodology.

Some people complain that it's hard to choose stocks as the leadership is narrow. So they are saying the market environment is unfavorable. But you already know which names are working well. You've been seeing them. You should consider participating in the things you already identify. Sometimes I wonder if it's not that people can't find stocks that work for them, but that they simply refuse to participate.

If there is only one lone wolf in the market, you won't buy, but if there are 10+ wolves, you can join the pack. I don't know why some people curse the market by referring to narrow breadth. You don't need to buy all 500 stocks. You just need a little more stocks than you can manage on average to work for you. About 20-30 is enough. At least for me. I don't even feel like there is a shortage of active stocks in the market right now - remember the <Pareto Principle>. In any field, only 20% of things produce 80% of the results. The 80% of stocks that don't work are none of your business - get involved in the ones that do.