Forecaster "belikewater" @XriskFYI @Swift_Centre @SamotsvetyF. Superforecaster® with Good Judgment Inc. PhD Neurosci, MA Econ. Opinions my own.

Michigan, USA
Joined April 2017
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Artificial Analysis finally moves to closed benchmarks (goodbye GDPval-AA), and finds that open weights models are falling further behind than they had previously measured. Take with a grain of salt, but matches the general vibes that we haven't seen a Fable-class open model.
Replying to @ArtificialAnlys
Open weights models fall further behind in v5. The leader, Kimi K3.1 Pro (weights not yet released), scores 46, 12 points behind the leader, compared with a 3-point gap in v4.3. Of models with released weights, DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 (max) and GLM-5.3 (max) score highest at 32, and Claude Haiku 5.5 (max) outscores all of them. The gap is widest on HLE-Diamond and Terminal-Bench-Science, where Kimi K3.1 Pro scores 37% and 34%, compared with 68% for Claude Opus 5.5 (max) and 63% for GPT-6 Astra (max).
78
27
7
428
24,980
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations said. on.wsj.com/4yHXmSL
53
293
55
727
156,798
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
PROJECT FORTRESS: The Pentagon is updating its domestic defense strategy to prepare military installations for severe multi-domain warfare scenarios, including widespread power grid outages, disrupted satellite networks, and crippled global supply chains. Under a new defense initiative dubbed "FORTRESS," nearly 200 major military installations across the continental United States will be required to operate independently for up to 90 days. Documents obtained by Fox News detail plans for portable nuclear reactors, hardened backup power grids, jam-resistant communications, and domestic industrial readiness. @JenGriffinFNC reports on the multi-billion-dollar plan, European civilian preparedness warnings, and expert analysis on vulnerabilities facing civilian rail, port, and power infrastructure supporting defense mobility.
26
107
11
336
43,586
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Surprise 1: Anthropic acquired a one-person biotech . . . Surprise 2: that person is me Surprise 3: I’m here to tell you all about it Yes, this is what you think it is; after 6 yrs of increasingly loose anonymity: the Professor Oak reveal post …and yes, it has gotten so boring around here that I’m literally doxxing myself to spice up the timeline ------- Ok, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Cody Tranbarger. I mostly tweet, but occasionally find time to dabble in drug dev & starting/building biotechs. My past lives span the VC, crossover, startup continuum; Prof Oak has been my way of keeping a digital foot in those worlds, despite having my physical feet planted elsewhere. The past 18 mo, ‘elsewhere’ was Mithril Medicine, a co. I founded to develop bsAbs for LAMA2-CMD & other ECM-related genetic diseases. Mithril was born out of hands-on building with @MikeNGladstone, @JasonPaulRhodes, @LifeSciVC, & team @atlasventure. Somehow, I made enough half-decent calls along the way (even a broken clock is right twice a day, eh?) to convince them Mithril/I warranted a small seed. While I can hardly rationalize such an outrageously cavalier bet, I’m grateful for it, & I'd partner with Atlas again in a heartbeat. In typical AV fashion, Mithril’s primordial form was virtual, decentralized, & ultra-lean. This stage tends to be short-lived, but for Mithril, it worked surprisingly well, for surprisingly long, thanks in part to the rapid maturation of the AI tools I used liberally. Eventually, Mithril became a bit of an experiment itself - to find the upper bound of how far it could scale as a single operator + a bunch of Claude (+ a stellar bench of part-time consultants). In parallel, I started spending time with @nc_frey, @an1lam, & @CoefficientBio team; and promptly experienced, for the 1st time, AI at the frontier. Soon thereafter, Mithril stopped looking like an experiment, & started looking like a preview of an entirely new operating model. From that spark came “Pipeline-in-a-Person.” The idea immediately resonated when we shared it here back in April; and it was central to the shared vision that led to Anthropic’s acquisition of Mithril, & my joining the team. Why join Anthropic? Three reasons. (1) For Mithril, the programs continue, with more resources & infrastructure behind them, and as much Claude as I can put to work. (2) For me, the chance to start several more programs, & find out how many one person can actually run in parallel - an almost unprecedented luxury for a curious drug hunter. (3) For our mission, a path to institutionalize & scale this new way of working, then put it in the hands of all of biopharma, all over the world - which, candidly, I find the most energizing. Will AI x Bio cure diseases? Unequivocally yes, imo… but not by the route that gets the most airtime. Rather than timeline acceleration & compression, I see orchestration & parallelization as today's low-hanging fruit. Most drug hunters see a handful of go/no-go calls in a career, & spend entirely too much of the rest trading emails (my inbox can attest). Give them the bandwidth to run several programs at once, and the time to focus on scientific judgment, and I’m willing to bet they’ll make better calls. And at scale, better calls translate to more drugs, higher hit rates, broader patient impact, & likely, a disease or 10 or 100 cured. I couldn't be more excited to build toward that future @AnthropicAI. Finally, a heartfelt thank you to BioTwitter/X. The end of anonymity is bittersweet, but if anyone’s earned a proper introduction, you all have. It’s difficult to overstate how much this app has done for me: a decade of education, plenty of friends, many job opportunities, several mentors, a few investors, even a co-founder (fmr). It was the generosity of this community that inspired me to start posting 6 years ago, after just as many years lurking. I hope I’ve been able to pay it forward, in my own small way. But, to be clear, Prof Oak isn’t going anywhere. Same beat, same themes, and now, a front-row seat to drug development at the frontier. Stay tuned for dispatches from the trenches; and remember... Gotta Cure 'Em All
281
400
146
6,145
413,885
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
It's 9 months until open-weight models have Astra-level offensive cyber, according to Mantic. I love this chart, made by @hanshalgoyal:
3
6
1
28
1,143
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Over the past few months, Anthropic scientists have engaged in deep research partnerships with six organizations developing new medicines. We've also begun drug discovery efforts of our own. In doing so, we’ve learned much more about how Claude can support the many stages of drug development. In this blog post, we share some early results from these efforts, and describe how this work fits in with our wider ambitions in the life sciences. anthropic.com/research/early…
457
689
392
6,939
1,342,322
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
This morning we are releasing the largest proof in the history of mathematics: A formalization of the Classification of Finite Simple Groups (CFSG)! Over 43 million lines of Lean, 715 papers and books, and 100 substantive fixes to the literature, this is truly an enormous theorem. Well done team!
The largest math proof in human history is now computer-verified. Today, Axiom announces a complete Lean auto-formalization of the Classification of Finite Simple Groups, the "periodic table of symmetry." About 15,000 pages, built by over 100 mathematicians across generations.
44
177
24
1,336
57,608
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
China’s domestic passenger car sales are projected to plummet 22% in 2026, falling below pandemic-era levels. Waning consumer confidence and reduced EV subsidies are chilling the world’s largest auto market, pushing carmakers to rely on surging exports caixinglobal.com/2026-10-28/…
3
7
2
15
2,865
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
China has reported robust growth this year, despite a continuing crash in its property market and consumer spending that is largely at a standstill. That is stirring questions that have long dogged China’s official data: Are the numbers accurate? on.wsj.com/3USEwKS
34
26
12
133
58,798
one of these is a little bit shorter than the other
Caros compatriotas, Estamos em Moscovo, a convite do Presidente da Federação da Rússia, Vladimir Putin, para participar na 3.ª Cimeira Rússia–África. Esta presença reflecte a importância que atribuímos ao diálogo, à cooperação e ao fortalecimento das relações entre Moçambique, a Federação da Rússia e os países africanos. À margem desta agenda, participámos hoje na 8.ª Cimeira do Fórum dos Países Exportadores de Gás, onde defendemos que os recursos energéticos devem gerar desenvolvimento para os nossos povos e fortalecer a cooperação entre as nações. #Vamostrabalhar
1
110
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
honestly have no idea what frontier lab equity is worth; it seems highly plausible that huge top down slowdowns are coming, which would make frontier models uncompetitive. total nationalization also seems possible. anything could happen with this technology
141
58
17
1,777
105,816
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Summary of all exit polls in the Israeli elections: No bloc has a clear majority. This looks to be the best results for arab parties ever. Netanyahu bloc is the biggest in two exit polls, while Eisenkot is the biggest in three
9
60
12
359
84,469
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
Venezuela and the US are setting up a path toward elections in the South American country that would be triggered by declaring a vacancy in the office, which technically has been empty since Nicolás Maduro was captured in January. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
12
242
17
633
41,879
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
The Trump administration is considering lifting sanctions on Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Russian Direct Investment Fund, according to The New York Times. A U.S. official confirmed the administration is assessing the fund’s application for removal “through established procedures” as part of an effort to “improve U.S.-Russia relations and help end the war.” A final decision has not yet been made. The Biden administration sanctioned the fund after Russia’s 2022 invasion, calling it a “slush fund” for Putin. People familiar told the Times that Russian officials pushed for relief in talks over the fund’s role in shipping Russian diesel to the U.S., after Trump suspended sanctions on Russian diesel October 9th. Treasury considers the fund already authorized to handle diesel and is running the normal removal process separately. This would follow earlier actions taken by President Donald J. Trump with respect to Russian sanctions. On October 16th, President Trump signed an order waiving the duties and most of the sanctions provisions of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. On October 21st, as envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin, Russia released Stephen Hubbard, a 74 year old American held since 2022. President Trump wrote that the U.S. “was not required to give anything in return.” In remarks that day he said the U.S. “gave nothing in exchange.” In a Truth Social post just a few minutes later, he wrote that “if sanctions would have been placed, certainly those negotiations would have come to a complete and total halt." Source: nytimes.com/2026/10/27/us/po…
78
262
52
885
212,766
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
BREAKING: A hacker is attempting to breach the US Federal Election Commission's systems and that agency has had to 'temporarily shut down' its web-facing services as a result, according to an email seen by Reuters reut.rs/4imQyUu
885
4,296
1,102
8,334
1,531,435
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
A quick reminder of the beauty of circular financing.... I doubt there has ever been this level of dependence in the US market, as we're seeing among the AI companies today. Bloomberg does a great job with this chart.
62
393
51
1,546
68,440
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
SCOOP: The CDC's deputy director is leaving. Jennifer Shuford, an infectious-disease physician who had been Texas's health commissioner, was hired to help restore trust in CDC. Now she's out after six months. w @bylenasun washingtonpost.com/politics/…
3
175
6
237
33,782
If this is real, it shows a certain level of delusion.
New leaked audio: Flock’s CEO tells a private conference of police chiefs he believes the opposition to his company isn’t real, full of paid protesters/bots. Says company is at “the bottom” but is waiting out criticism 404media.co/in-leaked-audio-…
89
Just Curious / @belikewater retweeted
NEW Ramp data: Opus 5.5 has somewhat reaccelerated demand for Anthropic, but it might not be enough. Spend on Anthropic models remains 1.6% below its July peak, according to Ramp data. Opus 5.5 now accounts for 63% of Anthropic spend, so frontier models do matter. The idea that AI is already "good enough" is probably overrated as a concern IMO. But price cuts / competition at all intelligence levels are still the most significant threats to AI model companies, and continue to form cracks in the AI thesis.
30
28
13
266
47,706