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Crazy moves from crypto this week.
That pretty much answers whether stocks rolling over would trigger a rotation of capital into crypto.
Now the question is...
Can $BTC close August convincingly above $67k, or is this just a mitigation of the May/June inefficiencies before another move lower in September?
S&P 500 ✍️
I’ve warned about this for weeks. I also loaded up on downside protection earlier this week, as I mentioned in Discord.
So far, it was the right move.
What a candle from $BTC 👀
This is where you have to be careful. It's also the exact $69-$70k move in August that I've discussed for months.
Nice so far from $SOL 👌
Still targeting $84 and $90.
$SOL could run hard here. 👀
It's been coiling for 5 weeks and is finally starting to break out today.
SOL is still trading inside this descending channel from February, with the top lining up near that $90 HTF imbalance.
Could be a nice +20% through mid-August.
Was that the top for the stock market?
A local top is likely. Something more? We'll see.
The $VIX and the underlying options market point to incoming volatility.
I've warned about this for over a week.
I said last week to watch this $SPX level, or $SPY 773.
The market is now starting to lose it intraday. 👀
If it fails, things could turn ugly.
It would also suggest that the 2021-2022 fractal remains very relevant.
US 30Y finding support at the same 5.15% level I warned about last month.
What comes next isn't good as long as this holds.
This is the $SPX level to watch. $SPY 773.
If it holds, the S&P remains constructive.
If it fails, the 2021-22 analog I've shared for weeks is alive and well.
Side note: The volume this week is atrocious and matching levels not seen since Feb. 2025. I'll let you scroll back and figure that one out.
This week's US CPI & PPI could determine whether the S&P 500 can finally shake this nasty 2021-2022 fractal, or if we're stuck on repeat.
A lot of focus on those last lower inflation numbers, so this week is big to help determine if that was an anomaly or possibly the start of a new trend.
I'm leaning toward an anomaly, but we'll see.
Said it yesterday, but $BTC isn't looking good right now.
Equal lows at $62,275 and the $60-$61k inefficiency.
*bulls scramble to delete their premature bear taunting*
A lot of early victory laps over today's cooler US PPI.
But like I said this morning, how markets react is what matters, and intraday movement confirms nothing.
What matters is how the S&P closes today and tomorrow relative to its recent congestion.
Speaking of inflation, this 1970s/80s analog isn’t dead yet.
Yeah, we’ve deviated somewhat from the mid/late-1970s ramp, but that doesn’t mean inflation can’t reaccelerate into 2026/27.
And oh yeah... I paid over $12 for a coffee and a danish this morning, and I live in the country.
Anyone else feel like inflation is nowhere near under control?
And there's this... federal debt is accelerating at its fastest clip ever. That alone is an inflationary pressure that few understand.
xitter.cf/DeItaone/status/208788…
