
Founder and Chief Data Officer @Oddmanlabs and AugurScore|@SA_Purdue| @wildwestmidwest podcast| Explaining the numbers behind the game|
Joined September 2022
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Kabir Devgun retweeted
Sports Equinox Monday:
There are games in the NBA, NHL, NFL and Major League Baseball all on the same night for just the 33rd time, according to the founders of @bball_ref, since the first time it happened in October 1971.
And: Dream at Valkyries in Game 5 of the WNBA Finals.
Kabir Devgun retweeted
I think its really interesting to see where players yards per route run comes from: air yards or yards after catch?
Yards per route run leaders, 2026 through Week 6 WRs with 120+ routes, TEs 100+):
1. Zay Flowers 3.77
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 3.57
3. Mike Evans 3.41
4. Drake London 3.24
5. Puka Nacua 2.80
6. Christian Watson 2.64
7. CeeDee Lamb 2.63
8. Jaylin Noel 2.53
9. Jalen Coker 2.53
10. Nico Collins 2.52
11. Chris Olave 2.50
12. Brock Bowers (TE) 2.50
13. Tee Higgins 2.49
14. Matthew Golden 2.43
15. Parker Washington 2.39
16. Malik Nabers 2.36
17. Tetairoa McMillan 2.36
18. George Kittle (TE) 2.34
19. Dalton Kincaid (TE) 2.33
20. DeVonta Smith 2.26
21. Luther Burden 2.21
22. Garrett Wilson 2.17
23. Travis Kelce (TE) 2.17
24. Davante Adams 2.08
25. Tre Tucker 1.99
26. Khalil Shakir 1.99
27. Carnell Tate 1.95
28. Amon-Ra St. Brown 1.92
29. Keon Coleman 1.91
30. Ja'Marr Chase 1.88
31. Brenton Strange (TE) 1.87
32. Isaiah Likely (TE) 1.86
Data: @SumerSports
Kabir Devgun retweeted
😈 Zach Edey. Beast.
In last night’s 3-point win over the Warriors:
✅ 139.6 offensive rating
✅ 84.0 defensive rating
✅ +55.6 net rating
📈 +25 in 22 minutes when on the floor
NFL QB Efficiency Against the Blitz:
Week 1-6
Tyler Huntley leading the league in EPA/Dropback against the blitz is objectively hilarious 😂
#RavensFlock #HTownMade #Jaguars
Kabir Devgun retweeted
I used to build 4th-down models for a sportsbook. We didn't care what coaches should do, only what they would do.
Coaches go for it 29% of the time the model says to.
Shanahan goes when it's obvious, kicks when it's less clear: 3rd most conservative since 2014.
Does it pay to play it safe? ⬇️
xitter.cf/katsuxbt/status/211234…
Kyle Shanahan says a 51% analytics recommendation won’t convince him to go for it because he gets one shot, not an hour at a blackjack table
“I don’t want to hear about it if it’s 51% of the time we should go for it.”
“As I always say, I’m not sitting here playing Blackjack for an hour with no one else at the table, and eventually I’ll get 51% of it. Like, I have this one try, and I have a feel for it. I’ve been doing it too long.”
“But what I want to know from him, when it’s not a feel, when it, no, this is 98%. We don’t even need to talk about it. So we don’t need to talk about it. Tell me when it’s that, and I’ll just do it.”
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Which quarterbacks have been more explosive vs. more consistent through six weeks:
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Top-5 teams in blitz rate and where they rank in the NFL in sack rate.
Vikings: 67% and No. 1
Commanders: 47% and No. 25
Bucs: 42 % and No. 23
Jets: 40% and No. 6
Bears: 40% and No. 2
8 years ago today, Purdue destroyed #2 Ohio State 49 to 20. Rondale Moore as a freshman WR had 12 catches for 170 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) went 49-of-73 passing for 470 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
#TylerStrong
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Jordan Love vs. the blitz tonight:
8/13, 100 yards, 0 sacks, +0.38 EPA per play, 53.8% success rate
Coming into the game, he ranked 16th among qualified QBs with -0.03 EPA per play against the blitz. Tonight, he diagnosed the extra rushers and threw the ball efficiently.
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Asking the NFL why we can’t have elite throwback uniform matchups EVERY Thursday night
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Situational football through Week 5. The 49ers convert 51.9% of the time on third down and score a touchdown on 88.2% of red zone trips
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Mike Evans has been highly productive across the board for the 49ers. But what he's done on third downs is extraordinary:
- 58% of all passing conversions
- 100% of receptions resulting in conversion
Kabir Devgun retweeted
What is EPA?
Expected Points Added measures how much a single play helps (or hurts) a team’s scoring outlook, not just how many yards it gained.
Save this for the next time someone asks. 📌
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Top DT's in Defensive Impact Per Rush Attempt (DIPRA) this season:
1. Leonard Williams, +0.56
2. Davon Hamilton, +0.51
3. Quinnen Williams, +0.49
4. Brandon Dorlus, +0.47
5. Dexter Lawrence, +0.47
6. Gervon Dexter, +0.47
7. Mason Graham, +0.45
8. Jeffery Simmons, +0.43
9. Teair Tart, +0.41
10. D.J. Reader, +0.40
Data: @SumerSports
Kabir Devgun retweeted
I love that jobs like this are becoming more and more common at the college level. It's wild to me that it has taken this long, but glad to see it's starting to catch on.
Kabir Devgun retweeted
This Commanders situation does not take a rocket scientist to figure out.
It is a sudden death situation. With the clock running and the ball at the 24 yard line, the instruction over the headset should have been simple: tell the QB to use the whole clock, then spike it with the play clock low.
A field goal from the 24 (42 yards) goes in about 83% of the time. You would be attempting that field goal to win and end the game with 10 seconds left.
If you really wanted to, you could call a rollout pass with an automatic throw out of bounds at 10 seconds to burn a few more seconds and make the field goal the last play. I would not even bother with that here. The game ends in a tie 99.99% of the time if you miss the field goal with 10 seconds left anyway.
Some of these car accident game management sequences can be traced back to having 400 buzzwords for situations and confusing both players and staff. I've had people in booth roles insist that you need all these silly code words: “This one is Ozone. This one is Giraffe,” and so on. Then, when I bring up edge scenarios that none of their 400 situations adequately capture, they don't know what to tell me.
Just calmly explain what to do over the headset to the QB, and you very likely leave with a victory.
Kabir Devgun retweeted
In terms of EPA, Purdy to Evans has been the best connection in the NFL this year































