The investor formerly known as KeyserSozeBro. Soon or late I will enrage you.
Manhattan, NY
Joined October 2025
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The first thing you will see on this handle is this, always.
We all matter or none of us do.
Keyser Soze retweeted
I get why $ORCL stock is catching a bid on their capex cut, but if you’re not seeing the bigger picture here that the market successfully bullied a hyperscaler into a capex cut and why that’s bad for other hyperscalers and for AI component suppliers talking about line of sight to demand to 2030, you’re blind.
Keyser Soze retweeted
Everybody in replies, “you think there is a secret cabal of Hyperscalers cooperating to obscure actual compute utilization and copy each others price increases” like I’m talking about aliens.
Meanwhile the millions of hours spent colluding and designing finance structures meant to obscure underlying economics and transfer risk to outside shareholders via SPVs can be seen in the chart below. And many of these deals have participation from 3+ Hyperscalers on the same deal. Nearly everybody on the chart has a $100B+ economic interest in Anthropic alone.
But sure - they don’t talk about how to steer the AI narrative in the Anthropic board meeting they all attend, they aren’t hiding anything, and they would never agree to copy each others pricing moves.
It's amazing how much of a heavy lift the GPU pricing index is doing to keep the AI bubble from popping.
This is maybe the single most opaque corner of AI - nobody actually knows how much capacity is available. A small cartel of hyperscalers holding 95% of installed AI compute tells you that "compute is scarce" and keeps marking up the pricelist to support the narrative required to make the Anthropic IPO float, yet the only neocloud with transparent real time pricing shows compute available and CHEAP.
No way to independently verify hyperscaler utilization rates. Just the same trust me bro that has proven time and again to be utter BS.
Ultimately, nothing is really preventing them from keeping prices high at the expense of utilization for the foreseeable future, but this will eventually come out in the financials as revenue misses relative to implied index pricing.
Keyser Soze retweeted
💥Read Anshel Pfeffer to the end: "Netanyahu didn’t invent discrimination against Arab Israelis. It goes back to the pre-state era. But Netanyahu turned it into his personal political project starting with his first elections as head of the Likud, in 1996, when he took Arthur Finkelstein’s advice to brand his base as "Jews" and not "Israelis," and on election day he approved the Lubavitch "Netanyahu is good for the Jews" campaign. We remember his "Hordes of Arabs are flocking to the polls video," but that’s just one milestone in a long saga. In his wisdom, Netanyahu doesn’t seek to strip Arab Israelis of their rights. They’re free to vote and be elected. Instead, through ongoing delegitimization, he empties that right of all meaning, until voting is perceived as a threat to the state’s security and the very presence of Arab representatives in the Knesset becomes irrelevant to any coalition consideration. The success of this project to erase Arab representation is so perfect that even many of Netanyahu’s opponents accept it without question."
נתניהו לא המציא את אפליית ערביי ישראל. היא הולכת אחורה עוד לפני קום המדינה. אבל נתניהו הפך את זה לפרויקט פוליטי אישי שלו מהבחירות הראשונות שלו בראשות הליכוד ב-1996, כשלקח את עצתו של ארתור פינקלשטיין לאפיין אל הבייס שלו כ״יהודים״ ולא ״ישראלים״ וכשביום הבחירות אישר את קמפיין ״נתניהו טוב ליהודים״ בביצוע חסידי חב״ד. אנחנו זוכרים את סרטון ״נוהרים לקלפיות״, אבל זה רק אבן דרך במסכת ארוכה. נתניהו בחכמתו לא מחפש לשלול זכויות מערביי ישראל. הם חופשיים לבחור ולהיבחר. במקום זאת, בדה-לגיטימציה מתמשכת, הוא מרוקן את הזכות הזו ממשמעות, עד שההצבעה נתפסת כאיום על בטחון המדינה ועצם קיום הנציגים הערבים בכנסת לא רלוונטית לשום שיקול קואליציוני. הצלחת פרויקט מחיקת הייצוג הערבי כל כך מושלמת עד שגם רבים ממתנגדי נתניהו מקבלים אותו ללא עוררים.
Keyser Soze retweeted
💥The two Arab-majority parties in Israel are proposing, in not so many words, to save the State of Israel.
This is an earthquake.
💥The Joint List's Jabareen: "We are ready and willing to pave the way for ousting Netanyahu's government. We are against a government of bloodshed, against a politics of supremacy, racism, and exclusion, we offer a completely different alternative.
The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership, a true and equal partnership.
No less than that, and no more than that."
Never let a good moral hazard go to waste.
In the same year that Morgan Stanley was "just days" from collapse without taxpayer intervention, it paid out $4.475 billion just in bonuses, including 718 bonuses over $1 million. $MS
scribd.com/document/17850928…
Keyser Soze retweeted
How to die investing in cyclicals based on earnings multiples:
The semiconductor sector is trading at record-low forward P/E levels.
Source: Goldman Sachs via @WallStJesus
The current uncomfortable status quo in Israel reminds me of the 1970s-early 1980s London.
Labor could’ve stopped the insipid ascent of Thatcherism if only they’d aligned w/ PMs inside the Paki & Bangladeshi ringed pockets around London, Luton & beyond.
But then they decided they hated Pakis & Bangladeshis as well, so that alignment was a bridge too far.
England entered an empty quarter century because of it & the only greatness to show for that were a few momentous Pink Floyd albums.
If all the Israeli opposition party members conclude they hate Arabs more than they want a functioning government, then it is a country that deserves Netanyahu.
But the thing is, we don’t need it & the US should not further underwrite anything subject to Bibi’s ongoing discretion.
Keyser Soze retweeted
It's amazing how much of a heavy lift the GPU pricing index is doing to keep the AI bubble from popping.
This is maybe the single most opaque corner of AI - nobody actually knows how much capacity is available. A small cartel of hyperscalers holding 95% of installed AI compute tells you that "compute is scarce" and keeps marking up the pricelist to support the narrative required to make the Anthropic IPO float, yet the only neocloud with transparent real time pricing shows compute available and CHEAP.
No way to independently verify hyperscaler utilization rates. Just the same trust me bro that has proven time and again to be utter BS.
Ultimately, nothing is really preventing them from keeping prices high at the expense of utilization for the foreseeable future, but this will eventually come out in the financials as revenue misses relative to implied index pricing.
Everyone worries about correlations going to 1 when the market dumps.
He makes a good argument correlations are already near 1 before this dumps.
Steve Eisman - Who called the 2008 crash - says the entire market is now "one trade," and it "better succeed"
"Even people who think they're diversified because they own bonds are NOT really that diversified"
The Big Short investor sold Google to cut his AI exposure and is sitting in cash.
What's worrying him:
> He Sold Google, Now In Cash (0:06):
- A stock he's "owned... I can't even tell you how long" - sold to reduce AI exposure. He won't replace it with defensive names: people "don't want to shift out of it to buy Clorox."
> If AI Fails, "A Big Correction" (0:52):
- It's binary: AI succeeds and the market keeps climbing, or "I think we have a big correction." How big? "That's a hard question. I don't know."
> "It's All One Trade" (1:07):
- In a 60/40 portfolio, "more than 50 percent" of the stocks is "tech and AI related," and "most of the new issuance of bonds is AI related." Then: "What scares me is that it's all one trade. So it better succeed."
> "Incestuous" Circular Deals (4:03):
- The latest Nvidia deal is "so incestuous" and "totally convoluted" - "you don't know if there's any real profitability" in the machinations.
He's not even an AI skeptic - it's going to be "something really good" (3:53)
BUT "that doesn't mean that everybody succeeds"
He actually moved to cash. Most crash calls come with no position behind them
I traced every big AI CRASH CALL to its source and scored who was right ↓
Yet another example of Biden admin going soft on undocumented immigrants from South America.
Flávio Bolsonaro and his family will be granted U.S. visas after his weekend loss to President Lula, a senior U.S official says. apnews.com/article/brazil-fl…
Keyser Soze retweeted
Bolsonaro’s departure comes as Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered a probe into possible illegal foreign financing of his campaign, including alleged links to U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance time.com/article/2026/10/27/…
Keyser Soze retweeted
A lot of ink has been spilled on GPU financing lately. I spent over a decade trading ABS on Wall St, and structured over $2B+ of debt financings as an operator (including at @tryramp). Figured I'd try to make sense of this market, so I went back to a framework I knew well: aircraft ABS and aircraft engine ABS.
My take: a GPU neocloud runs on airline economics, and the debt behind it looks a lot like aircraft engine ABS.
The parallels:
• Perishable inventory. An empty seat after the door closes is gone forever. So is an idle hour on an energized H100 rack.
• 85%+ of cost is fixed (servers, 10-year rack leases, 10-14% debt service). One more hour of compute costs pennies of power.
• Utilization is everything. Airlines break even around 80% load factor, a levered GPU cluster around 65-75%. The returns live in those last 25 percentage points.
• NVIDIA is Boeing and Airbus rolled into one. Powered shells and grid interconnects are the new airport slots.
• Wall St copied the aircraft financing playbook: take-or-pay contract plus servers in a bankruptcy-remote SPV, 70-80% LTV.
Part 1 of my blog post goes into a lot more detail:
alexyangsong.com/blog/alumin…
An impeccable summary of the last American quarter century of the indigenous 1/10 fund-of-funds creatures.
Good morning, Scott Bessent.
If you combine the 3 Goldman deals announced Monday & then add the private company equity & debt raises this week alone is close to half a trillion raise for AI centric companies.
Dollars, not yen.
They just can’t quit Bibi.
But we can.
Our ally is Israel the sovereign & not Netanyahu the principal.
He’s a world class corrupt buffoon, second only in his mendacity to our very own short fingered corrupt buffoon.
A not-random walk through @federalreserve history:
Baseline for the year:
Inflation ~2.6%
US debt to GDP ~63%
Unemployment ~6%
FOMC results:
Feb: +25bps to 3.25% (1st rate hike in 5yrs)
Mar +25 bps to 3.50%
Apr +25 bps to 3.75%
May +50 bps to 4.25%
Aug +50 bps to 4.75%
🧵
Just a reminder that until now @federalreserve has remained politically agnostic since the moral sins of Arthur Burns to abide the appetites of John Connally & Richard Nixon in 1973.
The Nixon Shock impaled the US economy for the next 15+ years.
Paul Volcker took the scepter back.
In 1990 Fed Chair Volcker was summoned to the WH for a sit down where James Baker, GHB’s CoS, told Volcker the President demanded he not raise rates during a midterms election year.
Volcker’s response was immediate & absolute: the Fed would follow the data & independently exact policy agnostic to all else. Next, Volcker returned to his office & let everyone in the @federalreserve building know it: the Fed would not yield to the political whims or tides of any moment & it most certainly would not “sit it out” every even numbered year because there is a federal election in early Novembers. Had Volcker indulged the Bush WH the institution of the Fed would have been irreparably damaged.
Just something to think about today as FOMC ponders a go / no go.
Inflation is in the mid 3%s
Our national debt wildly exceeds 2026 GDP
The only argument for temperance is unemployment is still historically low despite crappy trailing 18 mo. jobs growth.
Fed should go +25bps.
Will it? Dunno. I’m looking for the vote splits & the dissents. The most important figure now is Waller.