Polymarket & Kalshi private group.
Joined November 2019
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- Followers4.2K
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Spain went from rumor to election day in one morning
Polymarket priced a snap vote by October 31 at 51%. Sánchez called an election for November 29, and the market jumped to 100%
That 49-point repricing is exactly the kind of move @PolyKlast helps catch before the headline spreads
October just flipped
Polymarket now has no change at 75% and a 25 bps hike at 25%, with $22.4M traded
Cooler inflation and Fed officials asking for more time changed the board in days
This is exactly why I use @PolyKlast: catch the probability move and volume spike while it’s happening, not after the timeline explains it
Polymarket had Micron at 89% to beat $32.22 EPS
It printed $33.42, with $54.23B in revenue and a $61.5B guide. The crowd got this one right
@PolyKlast helped me track the odds and volume around the release instead of sitting on the market all night
Core PCE was supposed to land higher. @PolyKlast
On Polymarket, 3.2% was the favorite at 36%. The ≤3.0% outcome traded around 9%
Today’s print: 3.0%
A quiet release, but a full reset for the market. @PolyKlast helps catch moments like this through sharp probability-move and volume alerts - without keeping every market open
Polymarket gave MongoDB a 97% chance of beating its earnings target - and it did. EPS came in at $1.90 versus the $1.61 line.
Then the stock dropped 14%.
The problem wasn’t the headline result. Investors expected Atlas growth above 30%, while MongoDB reported 29%.
A correct contract doesn’t always mean a correct market thesis. PolyKlast helps track probability moves and volume spikes while the full story is still being priced in.
@PolyKlast
Polymarket traders gave Dell a 92% chance of beating its $4.90 EPS line.
The result wasn’t close: Dell reported $7.04 EPS, reached $47B in revenue, and raised its annual revenue forecast by $25B. Shares jumped 7% after hours.
PolyKlast helps catch the odds shifts and large trades around events like this while the market is still processing the news.
Track the next move with @PolyKlast
Macro markets repriced quickly today.
On Polymarket, a 25 bps Fed hike in September is now priced at 57%, while no change sits at 41%. More than $74M has already been traded.
The pressure is clear: Brent above $91, the US 10Y yield at 4.78%, and renewed inflation fears.
@PolyKlast helps catch these probability shifts without constantly watching every market - the alert appears while traders are still reacting to the news
Polymarket listed a market on whether Patrick Mahomes would start Week 1 - then pulled it a day later after the CFTC asked platforms to remove player-availability contracts.
A broader Chiefs QB market had already reached $32.8K in volume.
Sometimes the risk isn’t the outcome. It’s whether the contract survives.
We use @PolyKlast to catch sudden price and volume changes, then check the rules before entering
The market moved before the news did.
On August 20, an investigation identified 152 Polymarket wallets with a very specific pattern: they appeared, placed quick longshot bets on military markets, won, cashed out and often disappeared.
Together, they made $8M.
Average win rate: 97.2%.
The interesting part wasn’t only their accuracy. Other whales and bots started following these wallets. In one case, after an “Orca” bet on US military action in Iran, a bot and a whale copied the position with $200K and $100K.
A suspicious wallet had effectively become a public signal before the headline.
This is what we use @PolyKlast for: tracking fresh wallets, concentrated positions, large trades and sudden volume. It can’t tell us who has inside information, but it shows us where unusual flow is appearing and which market deserves a closer look.
The wallet may be anonymous. The trade isn’t.
Klast highlighted an interesting case around governance voting.
A few participants were able to influence the outcome of a vote and push it in their favor.
What makes this interesting isn’t the amount of money involved, but how the voting mechanism itself can become the weak point.
When participation is low and voting power is concentrated, a relatively small group can have a much bigger impact on the final result than you might expect.
Worth keeping in mind when looking at onchain votes the final percentage doesn’t always tell the whole story. @PolyKlast
Five seconds. That was enough to turn an almost guaranteed Polymarket win into a loss
Earlier this month, Polymarket changed how its short-term crypto markets resolve after researchers found a strange pattern
Traders would take a position in a 5-minute BTC market. Then, right before settlement, a large order would push BTC across the strike. The market resolved, and the price quickly moved back
821 wallets made $8.2M during windows classified as likely manipulated. Even outcomes trading at 90-100% were flipped roughly one-third of the time
This is where @PolyKlast helps us. It tracks sudden probability moves, large trades and wallet concentration in real time. When something unusual happens right before settlement, we get a reason to stop and check instead of blindly buying a “guaranteed” outcome
Polymarket has now replaced the single-price snapshot with a 30-second average
A 99¢ position is still a trade. Not a guarantee
Klast 🧠 Outcomes retweeted
BREAKING: France arrests 420 people, including 166 minors, accused of deliberately or accidentally starting wildfires amid its worst fire damage since World War II.
Klast 🧠 Outcomes retweeted
JUST IN: Grok 4.6 projected to be released by Friday.
84% chance.
poly.market/wVtp2Mi
Klast 🧠 Outcomes retweeted
JUST IN: 50-foot statue of Prometheus set to be erected at SpaceX’s Starbase, Texas.
Klast 🧠 Outcomes retweeted
BREAKING: F-16 fighter jets intercept two aircraft near Trump’s Bedminster golf club as the president stays at the property.
Klast 🧠 Outcomes retweeted
We got everything we ever wanted.
Pro-crypto President
Pro-crypto SEC and Fed Chair
Fed ending QT
No new tariffs
US-Iran peace deal
Oil price dump
ISM PMI above 50
Institutions
Altcoin ETFs and yet
Bitcoin is down -50% from ATH,
ETH is down -65%
Alts are down -90%
and we are poorer than ever.
Klast 🧠 Outcomes retweeted
Today, I stepped down as CEO of Binance. Admittedly, it was not easy to let go emotionally. But I know it is the right thing to do. I made mistakes, and I must take responsibility. This is best for our community, for Binance, and for myself.
Binance is no longer a baby. It is time for me to let it walk and run. I know Binance will continue to grow and excel with the deep bench it has.
I’m pleased to announce that @_RichardTeng, our now former Global Head of Regional Markets, has been named the new CEO of Binance today.
Richard is a highly qualified leader and, with over three decades of financial services and regulatory experience, he will navigate the company through its next period of growth. He will ensure Binance delivers on our next phase of security, transparency, compliance, and growth.
Prior to joining Binance, Richard was CEO of the Financial Services Regulatory Authority at Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM); Chief Regulatory Officer of the Singapore Exchange (SGX); and Director of Corporate Finance in the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
With Richard and the entire team, I’m confident that the best days for @Binance and the crypto industry lay ahead.
As a shareholder and former CEO with historical knowledge of our company, I will remain available to the team to consult as needed, consistent with the framework set out in our U.S. agency resolutions.
What’s next for me?
I will take a break first. I have not had a single day of real (phone off) break for the last 6 and half years.
After that, my current thinking is I will probably do some passive investing, being a minority token/shareholder in startups in areas of blockchain/Web3/DeFi, AI and biotech. I am happy that I will finally have more time to spend looking at DeFi.
I can’t see myself being a CEO driving a startup again. I am content being an one-shot (lucky) entrepreneur. Should there be listeners, I may be open to being a coach/mentor to a small number of upcoming entrepreneurs, privately. If for nothing else, I can at least tell them what not to do.
On that note, I am proud to point out that in our resolutions with the U.S. agencies they:
- do not allege that Binance misappropriated any user funds, and
- do not allege that Binance engaged in any market manipulation.
Funds are SAFU!
With that, I look forward to seeing the new leadership take the reins. Please join me in congratulating Richard on his well-deserved promotion.
Onwards!
CZ