Kristian Bjørnhaug

"Double" interest rate hike in Norway The Norwegian central bank today announced that it raises the key interest rate with 0,5%. It blames the weak currency (which increases import costs, which in turn feeds into prices). But what has caused this weak currency? Perhaps the central bank's policy of increasing the money supply by an average of 6,9% per year in the period 2002 - 2022 had something to do with it? Yes, indeed. When you increase the money supply like a drunken sailor, and pretend that you have the reserve currency of the world and that you can export your inflation to other countries, that of course has an effect. Over 10 years, an annual average increase of 6,9% of the money supply doubles the amount of money in the society. And in 20 years, it quadrupples the amount of money. What do you think would happen in the market place, if a private company did something like that with the goods that it sells? Just try to imagine that Volkswagen flooded the market with 4 times the amount cars in a periode of 20 years? The answer is simple: It's impossible. Volkswagen would bankrupt itself, most likely within 5 or 10 years if it tried to do something like that. When the central bank and the government does the this with the currency, the effect is exactly the same - it bankrupts things. The only difference is that it has zero effect on the "business" of the central bank and the government. All of the costs of moneyprinting are shuffled over to the citizens and the privately owned companies. Some of the companies go bankrupt, while most of them are just being boiled very slowly - like the infamous frog. In addition our central bank has been literally flooding the FX market with sales of NOK from April 2022. And the "funny thing" is that this goes on today, see link. At its worst the central banks sold 4300 million NOK per day. This makes up 1,7% of the total FX market's trade of NOK. It's like pooring gasoline on the bonfire with a high pressure washer. Now, let's see what these policies have done to our currency: If we compare 2008 with today, you now have to spend more than twice the amount of NOK to buy USD. That's remarkable, considering that the US also quadruppled it's money supply in the 20 year period from 2002 to 2022. And in 2023 NOK has even been outperformed by the Turkish lira and the Somali shilling. Did someone yell "BANANA REPUBLIC!" ??? Now, what will the effect on the economy be in the future? Well, sales of new homes is already as low as it was at the lowest during the financial crisis in 2008-2009, when we adjust for population growth. This part of the real estate market has basically fallen off a cliff. Therefore - the home building sector will probably crash. I think we will se a number of big entrepreneurs go bankrupt already this summer and in the beginning of the fall. Next up will be commercial real estate (industry, offices etc) and holiday homes. And when those markets dry out - the prices of used homes in the biggest cities will also plummet. Prices in the rural areas will be less affected, but it will be felt. Furthermore - because real estate is the main part in Norway's money printing machine, the total amount of money we have in society will probably fall. Real estate is the most important collateral for loans, and when the value of the collateral falls, this will reduce credit generations, which in turn reduces the money supply. And when the money supply is deflated, all prices will begin to deflate. And what happens when all prices are deflated? The central bank and the government will panic, and drop the interest rate to zero or below zero again. Which spells rampant price inflation, something which very well can be the end of the NOK. Conclusion Our central bank and our government is the root cause of the price inflation, the currency devaluation and the corresponding interest rate hikes. It's a policy that is enormously destructive for our society. Even the Joker would be impressed by the chaos they are creating. norges-bank.no/en/topics/Sta…