$ASTS 𝗔𝗦𝗧 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗠𝗼𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗯𝗿𝗼𝗸𝗲𝗻. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀. And SpaceX just made AST more valuable, not less. 1️⃣ 𝗜𝘁'𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗔𝗦𝗧 📉 The stock is roughly 65% off its high, and everyone's acting like it's an AST problem. It's not. Look around. Thousands of stocks are down 50%+ from their highs. Outside the Mag 7 and a couple dozen mega caps holding the indexes up, growth and momentum names are getting crushed across the board. Rocket Lab is down big. Even SpaceX has pulled back despite nonstop good news. The macro is ugly right now: war in the Middle East, high gas prices, sticky inflation, high bond yields, Russia–Ukraine, and midterms two weeks out. Hedge fund short positioning is near record levels, which is exactly the setup for a violent squeeze when sentiment flips. AST didn't fail. The whole market is bleeding. 2️⃣ 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗫 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗔𝗦𝗧 📡 People have this completely backwards. Gwynne Shotwell said it out loud: Starlink Mobile is going after AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. SpaceX just bought Grain's 800 MHz spectrum and said it wants to become a "major mobile carrier." Now Bloomberg reports SpaceX is in talks for access to at least 80,000 U.S. cell sites, about half the towers in the country. Think about how much work that is: • SpaceX has roughly 65 MHz of mid-band from EchoStar plus up to 14 MHz of low band from Grain. The big three hold over 1,000 MHz, including well over 100 MHz of low band combined. • SpaceX has no phone. • Its next-gen phone satellites haven't launched, and they're designed around 2 GHz, not this new low band. • 80,000 sites still have to be leased, built out and equipped. TD Cowen estimates a nationwide ground network would cost over $80 billion. 3️⃣ 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗔𝗦𝗧 𝗻𝗼𝘄 🤝 Every one of SpaceX's moves makes the carriers more nervous. And there's exactly one satellite company in orbit today that works WITH carriers instead of competing against them: AST SpaceMobile. That's why AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile formed their joint venture to pool spectrum for satellite service. That's why T-Mobile dropped the Starlink name from its satellite page and just filed at the FCC directly opposing SpaceX's positions. T-Mobile needs AST now. Read between the lines. 4️⃣ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 🌍 🇯🇵 Japan: AST's joint venture with Rakuten was preliminarily selected for Japan's J-LEO program, with up to about $1 billion in non-dilutive government funding. Japan wants its own sovereign satellite network so it doesn't have to depend on Starlink. 🇧🇷 Brazil: Brisanet, Unifique and Iez! Telecom just announced a commercial agreement with AST, bringing their 700 MHz spectrum to the network. 🇪🇺 Europe: Deutsche Telekom's CEO publicly mocked Starlink Mobile, saying Musk has to build 85,000 antennas before he can compete. Then Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone signed a letter of intent to team up on satellite-to-phone spectrum to counter Starlink. And Vodafone already has its own European JV with AST: SatCo. 🇮🇳 India: Musk is publicly feuding with Mukesh Ambani, the most powerful telecom player in the country. See the pattern? The rest of the world doesn't want one man controlling its connectivity. 5️⃣ 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝘀𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻𝘁𝘆 🔒 The Wall Street Journal just reported that Musk ordered Starlink speeds capped for Ukraine in the middle of a war. If you're a government, that's your nightmare. Data sovereignty is one of the biggest issues in telecom right now, and AST's model is built for it. Carriers and countries own their piece. Networks run through local infrastructure. Nobody in Texas decides whether your country stays connected. 🧵👇🏼