Laughing Water Capital

(Ep.88) The Acquirers Podcast: Matthew Sweeney – Value Spectrum: Concentrated Small And Micro, Event-Driven Long-Short Value Investing acquirersmultiple.com/2020/1…

❗️ The FCC says four spectrum auctions planned before the end of 2028 could raise more than $100 billion. The first, set for 2027, will sell 160 MHz from the middle of the upper C-band (3.98–4.2 GHz). Chairman Brendan Carr says interest now reaches beyond AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, which carry nearly all US mobile connections, and that selling airwaves to more companies will bring new competition. The FCC has also been making room for satellite broadband. Last week it said it wants more spectrum available for satellite internet, and in May it approved SpaceX's purchase of spectrum from EchoStar.

6/A prime example as to why the patent cliff is such a huge threat for big Pharma companies can be seen in the case of $MRK and its blockbuster cancer drug KEYTRUDA 🧵👇. Merck’s has become increasingly dependent on Keytruda which generated a $32.7B in revenue in 2024 and is responsible for 42% of the company’s oncology sales. But now Merck is facing the steepest patent cliff among the big Pharma companies, with products that had combined sales of over $30B in 2023 set to go off patent through 2030 - including Keytruda!

1/This short and interesting FT article sheds light on this week’s biggest and most interesting M&A deal in the BioTech and Pharma ecosystem - @GSK’s $10.6B purchase of $NUVL and its two new lung-cancer drugs which are expected to hit the market later this year. This deal - which is $GSK largest M&A deal since it was launched in 2000, marks a renewed attempt by GSK to strengthen its leadership position in one of the fastest growing markets in the BioTech and Pharma ecosystem - oncology and Cancer treatments. $XBI 🧵👇

The center of the two mile radius for the test is literally the capitol building, lol. I'd imagine they'll try to get some FCC engineers there to watch? $NN

$ASTS I keep saying it: There will be one lowband constellation at scale and there will be multiple midband D2D providers including Starlink and Amazon with their own connectivity bundles. Midband will be the commodity and agressive pricing layer. AST will largely at scale have a lowband monopoly globally and that’s unique. MNO’s will never give SpaceX and Amazon low band and anyone else cannot pull it off. If you read about the multi tenant D2D model, 6G and the future of Physical AI you conclude that lowband is the most important D2D layer, because it is a bridge between the phone and higher capacity midband. Wall Street analysis is still superficial in not recognizing this. They talk about increased competition, while in reality nobody will be competing in lowband in a multi tenant setup.

Peter Beck articulates this succinctly. To deploy large services in space, you need three things, he says: - Your own rocket - Ability to build sats at scale - Your own spectrum

Exciting News! Avanos Medical has agreed to be acquired by affiliates of American Industrial Partners, providing us with enhanced resources and flexibility to advance our purpose: helping patients get back to what matters. Read more here: ow.ly/boCF50YIKTa

… FCC Commissioner Olivia Trusty said Wednesday she hopes to see agency action on a GPS replacement in 2026 Trusty also said GPS is critical to U.S. national security, and she hopes to see FCC action on the subject this year “so we can ensure the resiliency and redundancy” $nn

Congratulations to Mariam Sorond, CEO of $NN.

The Space Force has ended its $1B “Resilient GPS” program, reflecting shifting priorities and renewed debate over how the US should build true #PNT resilience beyond satellites alone. vist.ly/4niqd #GPS #Resilience #Defense #GNSS #Infrastructure #CriticalInfrastructure

.@BrendanCarrFCC highlights a quiet but serious national vulnerability: America’s deep dependence on GPS for precision navigation and timing, and the danger of treating it as a single point of failure.

Exclusive: Obtained Starlink terminal debug data from Iran during the ongoing internet shutdown. The telemetry shows direct evidence of GPS spoofing: the dish detected 18 GPS satellites with valid signal lock, but activated its anti-spoofing countermeasures (inhibitGps: true). This isn't simple jamming; the government appears to be broadcasting fake GPS signals to confuse terminals. The impact: 20%+ sustained packet loss, connection never stabilized after 24 minutes, bandwidth restricted, and beam pointing ~1° off target. Starlink stayed online but was barely usable. The anti-spoofing detection works, but SpaceX's fallback positioning can't currently maintain normal performance under electronic warfare. First documented technical evidence of state-level GPS spoofing against consumer satellite internet. github.com/narimangharib/sta…

"RUSSIA IS DEVELOPING ANTI-SATELLITE WEAPON TO TARGET STARLINK" Recent reports indicate that intelligence assessments from two NATO countries suggest Russia is actively developing a new type of anti-satellite weapon specifically aimed at disrupting or disabling SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation. This "zone-effect" system would reportedly release hundreds of thousands of small, high-density pellets into low-Earth orbit, creating clouds that could damage or destroy multiple Starlink satellites passing through the area simultaneously. Unlike traditional single-target ASAT missiles, this approach targets orbital zones where Starlink operates, potentially affecting many satellites at once. Military analysts warn that such an attack would create uncontrollable debris, potentially taking out every satellite in a similar orbital regime, including those belonging to Russia and its ally China. Video for illustraion:

Discount that $50B back to today at 6%, chop it down to 15 MHz, and it implies ~$95 for $NN spectrum value. Feel free to ding that a bit bc of very minor inconvenience from part 15 and Feds, and you still get a whole lot of upside for $NN

$ASTS: Interesting article from Bloomberg regarding Apple's satellite ambitions. This article seems to emphasize the questioning of Globalstar's value to Apple, which is being reported by a Bloomberg Apple reporter. One of many structural issues that is facing Apple is its desire for "Natural Usage" improvements, which means using a phone connected to satellite without pointing the device at the sky - an issue that can only be broadly solved by using lowband cellular spectrum (600-900MHz) in combination with a large phased array in space, which neither Globalstar or Starlink satellites have today AND also requires working very closely in partnership with MNOs since they own this cellular spectrum. I also find it interesting that AST is *never* mentioned in these articles, although a nod is given to MNOs expanding into satellite services. Key excerpt here: "Inside Apple, meanwhile, there have been questions over whether the company needs to offer its own satellite service. From the early days of the project, which was once code-named “Stewie,” some executives argued that Apple isn’t a carrier and shouldn’t act like one. Now, with telecom giants expanding fast in the same territory, that viewpoint has only grown stronger." Apple Readies Major New Satellite Features for iPhones: Power On 2025-11-09 13:00:12 GMT By Mark Gurman (Bloomberg) -- Apple is planning a series of upgrades to its satellite features for the iPhone and its smartwatches. When Apple Inc. prepares to enter a new product category, it typically starts with a sweeping vision — then scales back its ambitions to get something practical to market. Consider the Apple Watch. The company originally imagined a medical lab on your wrist, but the first model barely went beyond heart-rate tracking. Over time, Apple added capabilities such as irregular heart rhythm notifications and sleep apnea detection. And it’s working toward offering continuous blood-pressure and blood-sugar monitoring, inching closer to that initial vision. Headsets tell a similar story. Apple’s ultimate goal has long been lightweight smart glasses with iPhone-level capability. But to bring something tangible to market, it began with the heavy, expensive Vision Pro. The company continues to pursue its glasses project and is hoping to reach that milestone eventually. Apple’s satellite ambitions have followed the same pattern. About a decade ago, the company hired two of Alphabet Inc.’s top satellite engineers to explore possibilities in the field. Early on, the dream was radical: replacing traditional cellular networks with satellites. The idea was to have iPhones connect directly to space-based networks, bypassing carriers entirely. That would give users coverage anywhere and provide Apple with tighter control over its ecosystem. In the mid-2010s, several tech giants, including Google, explored similar concepts, but none found a feasible path forward. Ultimately, Apple settled on something more modest but still groundbreaking: Emergency SOS via Satellite. Introduced with the iPhone 14 in 2022, it allowed users without cellular service to contact emergency responders via satellite — a cautious first step toward a broader vision. Since then, Apple has steadily expanded its satellite offerings. In 2023, it added roadside assistance via AAA for stranded drivers, and more recently, it enabled users to send and receive text messages — not just for emergencies — when off the grid. The technology is managed by Apple’s in-house Satellite Connectivity Group, or SCG, led by Mike Trela, a senior director in its hardware engineering department. The team works closely with the company’s wireless software, hardware technologies, business development and regulatory affairs units. The service links compatible iPhones — and now the Apple Watch Ultra 3 — to a satellite network run by Globalstar Inc. Apple has discussed eventually adding the feature to its iPads via its new in-house modems, but there’s nothing imminent on that front. Globalstar is a relatively small player in the satellite industry, and its constellation of spacecraft is aging. Still, it’s good enough to serve Apple’s current needs. But the competitive landscape is shifting. Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp., owner of Starlink, has become a major force in satellite communications and forged a wide-ranging partnership with T-Mobile US Inc. Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc. are also developing their own satellite offerings. Inside Apple, meanwhile, there have been questions over whether the company needs to offer its own satellite service. From the early days of the project, which was once code-named “Stewie,” some executives argued that Apple isn’t a carrier and shouldn’t act like one. Now, with telecom giants expanding fast in the same territory, that viewpoint has only grown stronger. Still, there are good reasons for Apple to stay the course with an in-house offering: * A long-term shift toward satellites: Over time, satellites could become the dominant technology for mobile connections. By investing early, Apple is positioned to be at the center of that transition, rather than relying on carriers to lead the way. * Control over the experience: By owning both the software and user interface, Apple ensures that satellite features meet its design and privacy standards — consistent with its broader philosophy of end-to-end control. * Global reach: Apple sells products in nearly every market worldwide. While US carriers like T-Mobile have moved quickly on satellite technology, many international providers have lagged behind. Apple’s direct involvement helps bridge that gap. * Technical dependencies: Apple’s current satellite protocols were developed primarily for Globalstar’s network and aren’t fully compatible with other providers’ systems. That reliance could make switching networks difficult — another reason for Apple to keep building its own expertise. A fast-changing industry could ultimately force Apple to change its approach. For one, Globalstar is exploring a potential sale. And Musk’s SpaceX is seen as a possible acquirer. But Apple continues to develop additional satellite features. That work includes: * A satellite framework for third-party apps: Apple is building an API that will let developers add satellite connections to their own apps. Implementation will be up to the app makers, and not every feature or service will be compatible. * Satellite-powered maps: The company is eyeing bringing satellite connectivity to Apple Maps, allowing users to navigate without cellular or Wi-Fi access. * Richer messaging capabilities: Apple is working on enhanced satellite messaging that supports photos in addition to basic text messages. * “Natural usage” improvements: One of the biggest limitations of Apple’s current system is the need for an unobstructed view of the sky. The company aims to let users stay connected while their iPhone is in a pocket, car or even indoors — eliminating the need to physically point the device toward the sky. This approach is known in the industry as “natural usage.” * Satellite over 5G: On the hardware side, as earlier reported by the Information, next year’s iPhones are slated to support 5G NTN. That allows cellular towers to tap satellites for increased coverage. Bringing most of these new features to market will require major upgrades to Globalstar’s satellite infrastructure — improvements that Apple has helped finance. If SpaceX ultimately acquires Globalstar, those enhancements could roll out more quickly than otherwise possible. But such a deal would also force Apple to rethink its business model and long-term strategy for satellite services. Apple’s approach has been to own a core set of features and offer them at no cost — from Emergency SOS to the upcoming enhancements — as a way to drive iPhone sales, encourage upgrades and keep users within its ecosystem. For more advanced capabilities, Apple plans to let customers pay carriers, SpaceX or other satellite providers directly. A SpaceX-Globalstar merger would complicate that equation, but it may also bring opportunities. Apple could collaborate more deeply with SpaceX on premium satellite features — perhaps even creating a new paid tier for extended connectivity. Apple has no current plans to enable phone calls, video chats or web browsing via satellite, but SpaceX is aggressively moving in that direction. One way or another, iPhone users are likely to gain access to those capabilities. In the end, Apple is steadily closing in on the satellite vision it first conceived a decade ago. It’s only a matter of time and details.