61% ROI on a Bitcoin market on Polymarket Direction doesn't matter - up, down, or sideways This is delta-neutral trading, and here's exactly how it works What is delta-neutral strategy? The core idea: earn when price doesn't move much and stays in a sideways range. Time does the work - the longer price sits still, the more the position grows toward 100¢. If price starts moving aggressively up or down - just exit at breakeven using a hedge. No big losses, no guessing direction. 1. Market: Will Bitcoin hit $80,000 in March? Current BTC price: $73,720 Buy No at 62¢ - market gives only 38% chance BTC touches $80k $100 invested → 161.3 shares of No If BTC never touches $80k → No goes to 100¢ → +$61.3 (+61%) 2. The hedge If BTC starts pumping toward $80k - No will drop to ~50¢ around $75,000 Loss on position at that point: −$21.9 Opening a long hedge on BTC. Size is calculated using the exchange calculator - set so that profit on the long from $73,720 to $75,000 equals exactly $19.4 BTC reaches $75k → loss on Polymarket −$21.9, profit on hedge +$21.9 → breakeven 3. Stops > Stop on position: No ≤ 50¢ (BTC ~$75,000) > Close both parts simultaneously > Exit at zero > Stop on hedge: BTC drops to ~$68,500 > Hedge loses max $61.3 > Position already gave +$61.3 → exit at zero 4. Scenarios BTC sideways ($68,500 – $75,000). Time decay works in full. Position grows toward 100¢ on its own. Result: up to +61% BTC pumps to $75,000. No drops to ~50¢ — close the position. Hedge profit covers the loss. Result: breakeven BTC dumps to $68,500. Position flies toward 100¢ — close the hedge. Stake covers the hedge loss. Result: breakeven 5. The full construction > Buy No $80k at 62¢ on $100 > Open long hedge on BTC via exchange calculator > Profit zone: $68,500 – $75,000 > Outside this range - stops keep everything at zero Profit or breakeven. That's the whole idea