Lex.

WOW! FLORIDA! I'm hearing on the ground here in Florida that Democrats will likely outperform expectations here tonight. This is what 2 Republicans on the ground told me just now. They are frantic: Don't pay attention to the raw Republican-versus-Democratic turnout numbers. It's the Republican crossover vote and the No Party Affiliation voters who matter. Look at these numbers from a recent Florida poll: 🔵 REPUBLICANS CROSSING OVER TO DEMOCRATS: • 13% support Democrat David Jolly for governor. • 12% support Democrat Angie Nixon for Senate. 🔴 DEMOCRATS CROSSING OVER TO REPUBLICANS: • Just 3% support Republican Byron Donalds for governor. • Just 4% support Republican Ashley Moody for Senate. That's roughly THREE TO FOUR TIMES as much Republican crossover support, measured as a percentage of each party's registered voters. Now look at the voters who could make an enormous difference: No Party Affiliation (NPA) voters. In the 2024 presidential election, Florida's self-identified independent voters broke approximately: 🔴 Trump: 53% 🔵 Harris: 45% An 8-point Republican advantage. But in the latest RedBox Research polling for 2026, registered NPA voters are breaking: GOVERNOR: 🔵 David Jolly: 55% 🔴 Byron Donalds: 30% U.S. SENATE: 🔵 Angie Nixon: 54% 🔴 Ashley Moody: 29% That's a 25-point Democratic advantage among NPA voters in BOTH races in this poll, or a 33% swing! When you see Republicans leading Democrats in raw turnout, you're seeing how many people registered with each party have voted. You are NOT seeing whom they voted for. A registered Republican voting for David Jolly still shows up as a Republican in the turnout numbers. An NPA voter supporting Angie Nixon doesn't show up as a Democratic voter in those same numbers. And a Democratic candidate can outperform their party's registration numbers without a corresponding increase in registered Democratic turnout.