Many countries with low fertility are also countries with considerable net emigration, a compounding effect that many overlook in advanced economies, where net immigration is the norm. Take the case of Bolivia. According to the Bolivian National Institute of Statistics, in 2026 there will be 153,204 births in Bolivia, with an estimated total fertility rate of 1.56, well below the replacement level. But Bolivia has an estimated net emigration of 42,042 persons a year. So, in a loose sense, the “effective” births are only 111,162, or roughly the equivalent of a total fertility rate of 1.13 (yes, there is a timing component I am skipping since this is a post on X: those emigrating are older). Also, deaths will be 79,620. So net population growth will be only 31,542. The Bolivian National Institute of Statistics forecasts that fertility will stabilize at 1.47. Given current trends, I do not quite see this stabilization. If fertility drops instead to something around 1.40, not much lower, Bolivia will be losing population by 2034 or so. I am often asked in my talks: “What about immigration?” I am actually quite skeptical, for many reasons, that immigration is the solution to demographic problems, but for countries like Bolivia the answer is straightforward: Bolivia has positive and relatively large net emigration.

Is Bolivia’s total fertility rate below the U.S. rate? In a new data release, the National Institute of Statistics of Bolivia reports the country’s total fertility rate at 1.56 in 2026. The U.S. will be around 1.57. This is NOT my estimate. I am just copying and pasting a table from nimbus.ine.gob.bo/index.php/… (Appendix 1, page 68). Can I say it again? This is the official data. If I had been told 10 years ago that, by 2026, Bolivia’s total fertility rate would be below the U.S. rate, I would not have believed it. I would have happily bet $1 against $1 million that it would not happen. In fact, I look at the table, and I still need to pinch myself. Bolivia was around 6.5 in the mid-1980s and around 3 in 2010 or so. I don’t know. Sometimes I wish I were a better writer, so I could express what I am feeling right now. More than anything, the sense that ten years ago I missed a fundamental change in humanity. What else can I be missing now? Thanks to @LibCarlos for the link and the information..

Los dos primeros meses de este año exportamos más (2.221 millones de dólares) que lo que importamos (1.420 millones de dólares). A diferencia de lo ocurrido en mucho tiempo, tuvimos un superávit comercial de 801 millones de dólares. Esto se debió a la acción combinada de la liberación de exportaciones y una menor importación de combustibles. Suponiendo que la guerra en Irán se acabará pronto, creo que podremos extender este superávit comercial a todo el año. Tener exportaciones por unos 11.000 millones y unas importaciones de unos 9.000 millones, con lo que el superávit de 2026 ascendería a unos 2.000 millones de dólares, que podrían servir para pagar deuda externa y acumular reservas internacionales. Es decir, bien encaminado, el comercio exterior servirá para estabilizar al país. unitel.bo/noticias/economia/…

¿Vivimos una crisis de la representatividad política? ¿Cuántos partidos conocimos el domingo pasado desde la papeleta y cuán difícil fue escoger a uno? Hice mapas sobre las elecciones a gobernadores y alcaldes donde intento explorar estas preguntas. mauforonda.github.io/subnaci…

What has Capitalism done for the world?