In search of clarity. Tweets are opinions only and are not investment advice.
Joined October 2016
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Garland and Bondi could have executed this rescheduling at any time in the last 3.5 years through CSA 811(d) which always applied. Was the HHS review and administrative hearing just for show and slow-walking?
apnews.com/article/medical-m…
The AG is bifurcating marijuana into FDA-approve/state-medical (covered by today's order) and "bulk" (remaining as Schedule I pending the continuation of proceedings for its own rescheduling)
LogicPrevails retweeted
"Longs with capital" won't play in this space as long as a single ETF manager determines the price action in irrational ways like bidding up bankrupt companies and selling the strongest performers. Who would want to hang their career on that?
S3 alone doesn't fix that
LogicPrevails retweeted
Punting to Congress should be the ideal solution for Trump:
- doesn't give away 280E revenue for nothing (replace with excise tax)
- can provide funding for regulation and law enforcement
- would shift any voter anger away from himself and onto Congress
xitter.cf/RepGregSteube/status/1…
It makes zero sense that federal law treats marijuana the same as heroin and LSD. It is even more ridiculous that cocaine is technically classified as less restrictive than marijuana.
This week, I’m reintroducing my Marijuana 1-to-3 Act to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act. This is a common-sense change that will finally allow real scientific research into its medicinal value and ensure our drug laws reflect reality. I urge my colleagues and the Trump administration to get it done.
Trump admin is going to table S3 via administrative action
- He isn't going to take a Biden initiative over the finish line. Has to be his doing + to his credit only
- S3 via admin action hurts the budget by getting rid of 280E. New taxes & regs have to come from Congress
$MSOS
DEA Judge Overseeing Marijuana Rescheduling Retires, Leaving Fate Of Reform To Trump's New Agency Head: "All matters filed in this case will be forwarded to the DEA Administrator, for whatever action, if any, he deems appropriate."
marijuanamoment.net/dea-judg…
Punting to Congress should be the ideal solution for Trump:
- doesn't give away 280E revenue for nothing (replace with excise tax)
- can provide funding for regulation and law enforcement
- would shift any voter anger away from himself and onto Congress
xitter.cf/RepGregSteube/status/1…
It makes zero sense that federal law treats marijuana the same as heroin and LSD. It is even more ridiculous that cocaine is technically classified as less restrictive than marijuana.
This week, I’m reintroducing my Marijuana 1-to-3 Act to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act. This is a common-sense change that will finally allow real scientific research into its medicinal value and ensure our drug laws reflect reality. I urge my colleagues and the Trump administration to get it done.
LogicPrevails retweeted
I really like the Newswire Indicator. These are companies who are so busy not making any money, that they spend all their time publishing "news announcements" about all the things their "launching", while they're just frauds on their way to zero. Pay attention. You'll see...
The year is 2025
SPX is at ATH
Bitcoin is at ATH
SPACs, meme stocks and altcoins are back
And $MSOS is -27% YTD as pumpers hype the confirmation of a "Just Say No" DEA Admin and the passage of legislation that increased recreational drug control as bullish
Say in 4yrs $GLASF goes to $50 and the prefs go away:
- pre-refi, prefs would have gotten another 4yrs of 10% div (40%) + 12.5% PIK (50%+) + par (100%) = 190%+
- post-refi, they get 4yrs of 12% div (48%) + shares worth $50 at a cost of $9 (556%) = 604%
Common holders pay this
Not sure why statute and precedent would have any relevance
Only thing that matters is being in the crosshairs of the Administration and the political win that can be gained by doing the exact opposite of what Newsom would do
LogicPrevails retweeted
1/
The Glass House raid isn’t just a test for legal cannabis. It’s a test for regulators, shareholders, and the exchanges that list these companies.
This is what being a public entity means: accountability when things go wrong. And this time, things may have gone very wrong.
TBH, a large scale national supplier getting shut down or having its cost structure reset higher would be a positive for the margins and stock prices of the rest of the sector
LogicPrevails retweeted
Canadian retail sales disappointed with a -0.6% May decline and StatsCan penning in a -0.3% June swoon. The lone standout? Cannabis, with a smoking +3.4% pop. Goes to show that when consumer confidence is low, it’s time to get high!
IMO what changed over the weekend for equities isn't that Trump is the likely next President. It is that he is now favored to have a unified govt (GOP House + Senate)
Maybe they block, maybe they tolerate status quo, but hard to see 🌿 reform beyond S3 until 2029+
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"Pelosi privately told President Joe Biden [...] that [he] could destroy Democrats’ chances of winning the House" xitter.cf/abbydphillip/status/18…
Exclusive CNN reporting: Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi privately told President Joe Biden in a recent conversation that polling shows that the president cannot defeat Donald Trump and that the president could destroy Democrats’ chances of winning the House. @mj_lee @jamiegangel @jeffzeleny
It's anyone guess how much excess profit MSO equities will capture or for how long, but lenders get an immediate upgrade in borrower credit quality and should see demand for loan growth. IMO they are the clear winners of standalone S3 xitter.cf/AnthonyConigli0/status…
Some have asked what the impact of a rescheduling to Schedule 3 has on NewLake. $NLCP
1) The elimination of 280e creates a better cashflow profile for our tenants. Thus, credit quality of our portfolio is meaningfully improved.
2) We expect increased capital flow into the sector, re-equitizing balance sheets (issue equity to pay down debt), which would further enhance tenant credit quality.
3) Since cannabis remains a controlled substance under the CSA, we do not see meaningful competitive pressure from Banks or new entrants.
4) As the industry leans into growth, the capex cycle will start to reappear and with it, the need for real estate capital.