V~N² - Trend is a function of time
Joined August 2015
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LongLace retweeted
Hey everyone,
If you are reading this, that means TaPlot has unfortunately passed away.
I am his oldest son, and I want to take a minute to sincerely thank every one of you that supported him throughout this fight, you helped him keep his motivation, but you also helped me a lot. When I was feeling worried about him, I would often go to his page and read all the supportive comments, and they would give us both so much hope.
He was a great dad, he never stopped fighting, not even in his last week. I sat beside him and told him he could rest and I was proud of him, and he simply shook his head. He still wasn't giving up.
It hurts losing him, because, losing my father means I lost the only man who ever truly wanted me to be better than himself.
I will not be deleting any of his posts, everything will stay here as it was.
There's one more thing I want to leave everyone with.
When my dad died, the cancer died too. It wasn't a loss, it was a tie. He's at peace, and the cancer isn't. So if you really think about it, he won. 🕊️
LongLace retweeted
Observe the rigorous health and safety standards used when cleaning the clock face of Big Ben on Westminster Palaces Elizabeth Tower in the 1980s. Not a bit of me if I'm honest.
LongLace retweeted
Bitcoin had four great bubbles before the world needed Bitcoin this badly.
Now global debt is exploding, currencies are being weaponized, and governments need more money every year.
Good luck betting against the fifth.
Bitcoin was built for this.
(Original chart from August at $64K, before the run to $87K, Amazing what one good advance does for perspective.)
RT @i_am_jackis: "Happy" anniversary to 10/10th 2025.
Let's never forget this day.
It is the day when the crypto overlords scammed the bu…
LongLace retweeted
The US 10 Year Yield have broken to a new 20 year highs, ended a 40 year Bear market in Yields / Bull market in Bonds, and has confirmed a new cycle.
The last time this has happened & was at the same level was in the 60s & SPX basically went for a 14/16 year bear market when measured against the CPI.
And it wasn't until 1992 when it properly broke to new ATHs.
That is 26 years!
The data speaks clearly.
Rising 10Y Yield coupled with higher inflation puts a bearish pressure onto equities.
The historical average gain for SPX is about 10% PA, including bear markets.
The past 17 years offered a staggering 15% PA growth. That needs to be compensated at some point.
Extrapolating the same timing with the 70s would mean that SPX goes into a bearmarket until 2043 against USCPI.
Using the timing from dot-com & after puts us a bit closer to 2035.
How high do you think the 10Y goes this time? And for how long? And are you prepared for it?
LongLace retweeted
$BTC
BTC dominance is likely in a similar phase as in 2019 which is pre bull phase.
We probably see one final spike of BTC dominance where BTC massively outperforms everything.
This will be the final ingredient that unlocks real altseason.
LongLace retweeted
35 years into this game
when I look back, most of my work and decisions went nowhere
I owe my dream life to a handful of asymmetric bets:
- asking out the French exchange student in high school
- learning to code in 2009
- dropping out of uni to pursue my startup
- going all-in Bitcoin in March 2020
those four decisions shaped most of my life
I missed so many opportunities.
some that were served up on a silver platter.
but that's the beautiful thing about asymmetric bets - you only need one to completely change your trajectory
so how often are you actually looking for them?
not the default path.
not the safest options.
the ones with limited downside and massive upside
they're often hiding behind exaggerated downside
you think they're riskier than they are
you fear the judgement of pursuing them, or failing to succeed
nobody actually cares though
its your life. take swings.
the guy who strikes out is still closer to hitting a home run than the heckler in the bleachers
time speeds up after 35 years
it's made me more ruthless about where I allocate my time and capital.
forced me into a barbell strategy for life
I'm either squeezing the most I can out of this pre-ASI moment - real world maxxing somewhere beautiful with lovely people- or I'm allocating time/capital to the most asymmetric bets I can find.
zero mediocre middle
LongLace retweeted
To my long time silver friends, why Silver is more likely heading to $46 before turning bullish again.
Silver blow-off moves take a lot of time to retrace and rebuild a base. And often the last weekly cycle from the blowoff phase has to be retraced, in this case to $46.
From a trend perspective, this remains an intermediate time frame retracement from the January blow-off move. The arrows show the corresponding gold Cycle highs/low, which are in decline. And the next weekly cycle low is not due until the end of 2026.
From past experience, Silver in a bull market offers one of the best opportunities to post significant portfolio gains. It's because when it goes into a parabolic advance, it's generally just one relentless and straight move up, allowing for good positions to sit tight in. But those parabolic moves are short-lived (6 to 12 months) and then it takes a long time for another such environment to build.
I feel strongly that Silver will go through another such environment in the near future, but know that it's always a process.
LongLace retweeted
Analogs speak loud
There is a strong history among commodities that parabolic advances, once violated, produce 80% declines. That would be Gold to $1,120.
Don't think that will happen, but a 50% decline brings price back to $2,800 or so
LongLace retweeted
This is where the 30-Yr U.S. Bond came from
The down cycle is OVER
The trend is higher
Seriously, would you want to lock in U.S. govt debt for 30-Yrs at 5%???????
U.S. Bonds back to 7.5% please ↗️↗️↗️
LongLace retweeted
On the 30-Yr, 6.2% is next, then 7.7%
If the 30-year reaches 7.5% I will move 50%-plus of my net worth into bonds with 10-20% into Silver and Gold as an insurance policy
