Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon) header
Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon) profile picture

Founder of Longview Economics Connecting macro to markets, into financial history, maths in markets & behavioural economics. https://teapawt.net/t.co/CDCPlMZj5m

London
Joined January 2011
Photo by Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon)Photo by Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon)Photo by Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon)Photo by Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon)Photo by Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon)Photo by Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon)Photo by Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon)Photo by Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon)Photo by Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon)Photo by Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon)
Chris Watling retweeted
“Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.” — P. J. O’Rourke
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Chris Watling retweeted
On 22nd November 2003, Jonny Wilkinson dropped the goal that won the Rugby World Cup and delivered one of the most defining moments in the history of English sport. Here he is being a genius again.
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Tighter liquidity means fewer marginal buyers as equity supply surges -> Business Cycle Financing Index has rolled over sharply, which points to high beta underperforming low volatility stocks over the next 12 months. -> Global excess liquidity has also faded towards zero, a headwind for global equities into 2027.
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Chris Watling retweeted
Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon) discusses current market signals, macro challenges, trends to watch and how earnings season has impacted the market so far with @sam_vadas. For more market news, tune in at: SchwabNetwork.com/?CID=SM:Tw…
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A crash is coming, but it's not the end of the bull market, says Chris Watling chriswatling.substack.com/p/…
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“.. If you wanted a sort of ‘poster child’ stock for the data-center build-out theme more generally (and in Texas specifically), you could do a lot worse than Sterling Infrastructure… For some iterations, the bubble has clearly and conclusively already burst.” @business $STRL
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MPs LEFT FUMING as a witness breaks ranks and exposes their FAILURES one by one! The truth they clearly didn’t want to hear! 😡🔥
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Chris Watling retweeted
CITYAM – “House builders hit a brick wall” - Ibstock’s stock was down around 12 per cent by mid-morning – meaning it has now shed half its value since the start of the year. The British brickmaker made no effort to masquerade the scale of the difficulty it was facing. ‘Trading conditions deteriorated sharply during the 3rd Q, with weakness continuing into October,” said boss Joe Hudson
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Chris Watling retweeted
Always a good reminder... ht @AlexIneichen
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Chris Watling retweeted
MS: hedge funds have now moved underweight the broader AI trade for the first time since early 2023, and the combined summer and October de-grossing marks "the largest sustained stretch of L/S fund de-risking in over 15 years, as gross exposure never fully recovered between episodes." MS Prime Brokerage data is brutal: cumulative gross flow is now down 8% from the June peak, the largest sustained de-grossing on record. And yet, the bulk of this week's buying came from short covering, which pushed US L/S net leverage up 5 points to 51%, while gross slipped 1 point to 207% (still in the 92nd percentile since 2010, but just the 10th percentile over the past year).
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Chris Watling retweeted
Andy Burnham says, in a new Guardian opinion piece, that he is “open to” the “calls for a formal apology on behalf of the British state” for the transatlantic slave trade which began almost HALF A MILLENNIUM ago. This would be like someone in the year 2526 having to apologise for heinous acts conducted today. It is ridiculous. It goes without saying that the transatlantic slave trade was an awful part of global history. But it is also a part of history for which we have already atoned, multiple times over, as one of the world’s pioneers in abolishing the slave trade and indeed policing, through our West Africa Squadron and others – an endeavour that cost up to 2% of Britain’s GDP every year for decades to come. Now think about all the aid money we have supplied across the world since. Billions upon billions. And lest we forget the lives Britain has put on the line over the centuries since: our own people, who sacrificed everything, to keep the free world free. This is a time of year we remember those sacrifices instead of grovelling to anyone who demands it over something of which no Briton alive played any part. Yet Burnham is still “open” to making humiliating public pronouncements on Britain’s behalf. I say no. I say enough. One of the biggest problems we face today is that we are no longer a forward-looking nation. We only ever seem to lament our past, or condemn those who came before us. I cannot abide it any longer. Britain is exceptional. We are a moral force in the world. We have given so much, and sacrificed for centuries. It is now time to put the Britsh people first, instead of caving to every demand that we get on our knees.
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"One of the most important reasons for studying history is that virtually every stupid idea that is in vogue today has been tried before and proved disastrous before, time and again." — Thomas Sowell
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Has any country ever turned its back on its finest achievements more than Scotland? Birthplace of David Hume and Adam Smith, and home of a famously successful free banking experiment, it is now a high tax, big government backwater dependent on handouts from Westminster. Scotland has an elite international legacy in free-market philosophy. The Scottish Enlightenment of the 18th century fundamentally shaped global classical liberalism. Adam Smith revolutionized human thought with The Wealth of Nations, introducing the "invisible hand" concept to explain how self-interested individuals generate widespread public wealth through free trade. David Hume pioneered crucial defenses of private property and free commerce. This powerful intellectual tradition directly laid the bedrock for modern capitalism, championing individual liberty, minimal state intervention, and market competition centuries before they became global economic standards. During the free banking era (1716–1845), Scotland operated a highly successful, completely unregulated banking system without a central bank. Competing private banks issued their own banknotes, strictly disciplined by a market-driven clearinghouse. This system delivered remarkable financial stability, economic growth, and near-zero inflation for over a century. Despite this proud legacy, Scotland’s electorate now lean firmly left. At the 2021 parliamentary election, the leftwing Scottish national party took almost half the seats, with fellow left-of-center Labour and Greens adding another third. And the results are clear. While the UK suffers under one of the most progressive tax systems in the OECD, Scotland has exacerbated that model, cutting taxes for low incomes and raising them further in higher brackets. Total government spending amounts to 53% of GDP, resulting in a 10% deficit plugged by Westminster. Total public sector spending sits at £22,281 per person, 14% above the UK average. The economy suffers from a high inactivity rate, heavily driven by people on long-term sickness and disability benefits. Scotland’s shift towards collectivism can be traced to the mid 20th century, attributable to industrial decline and a political reaction against Margaret Thatcher. As late as in 1955, the Scottish Unionist Party won an outright majority on an individualistic Liberal message. Those days are now long gone. Today, Scotland is firmly in the grip of leftwing politics. The light of classic liberalism no longer shines over the Highlands. Hume and Smith must be turning in their graves.
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GS: Consensus estimates point to a steep deceleration in earnings growth for the AI infrastructure complex in the coming quarters
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The biggest deleveraging event in more than 10 years
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Chris Watling retweeted
There were five slave trades. You were taught about only one. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇬🇧 One. The Atlantic. Twelve million Africans shipped to the Americas. Britain banned it in 1807, then hunted it for sixty years. Two. The Barbary trade. A million Europeans taken to North Africa. Britain bombarded Algiers in 1816. Three. The Saharan trade. A thousand years of caravans north across the desert. Britain had its northern end banned. Tripoli, 1857. Four. The East African trade. Twenty thousand people a year through one customs house. Britain forced the market shut. 5 June 1873. Five. The Ottoman trade. Raiders sold Eastern Europeans south for three hundred years. Britain made the Sultan ban it in 1854. It cost sixty years and two thousand sailors. Nobody else fought all five. 🙏🇬🇧 It isn't over. Mauritania only made it a crime in 2007. Fifty million people are in slavery today. Someone has to remember who started the fight. ⚓🇬🇧💪
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Chris Watling retweeted
Drawdown Josh Brown's bullish, confident and remarkably simplistic soliloquy on technology earnings and stock prices this week (below) summarizes what is so wrong with Fin TV and the business media. The investment mosaic is so much more complex than his 'glittering generalities' and singular factor views. Here are excerpts from his comments earlier this week on technology earnings and stock prices. @CNBC @cnbchalftime: "Earnings expectations for tech are not coming down they are going higher. We have an anti-bubble in technology. When you think about the type of earnings we are going to get! We are going to hear from Amazon $AMZN on Thursday after the close - it could be explosive." Here is the full tape: (2) Martin Pelletier on X: "Ouch. teapawt.net/_Investinq/status/2115…" / X As I mentioned, Josh recently brought $RDDT (-$28 to $106 or -21% in after hours and -$100 in the last ten weeks or so since he recommended the name. @CNBC viewers have not heard any contrition and there has been no pushback by @CNBC moderator(s). Unfortunately these are two big mistakes are not in isolation. I recognize that this tweet sounds ad hominem. I see my role is being an advocate to the retail consumer/viewer @cnbc and I am simply bringing up the facts by reiterating what he said. If anyone at @CNBC or elsewhere on Twitter feel I am in attack mode, tell me and explain. Unlike some, I can always learn... @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye_HGRO @RPKInvestor @HedgeyeDJ @gnoble79 @cnbcfastmoney @cnbchalftime @squawkbox @business @convertbond @whitneytilson @peterboockvar
Replying to @TheStreetPro
@TheStreetPro They Know Nothing I won’t mince words. If you all don’t now understand my constant criticism of Fin TV and their absence of analytical rigor/investment process (no modelling but alot of regurgitation while viewing the rear view mirror), lack of time stamping (and ownership of investment boners), failure to consider the contrary (as they populate and find comfort in the herd) as well as their hubris expressed in self-confident recommendations (in addition to other faults) -- you might reconsider your view after this week’s earnings surprises relative to their "expectations." I have repeatedly warned that when the tide goes out too many are swimming naked. The perma bullish panelists and guests (@fundstrat @DivesTech) - as has been the case when market headwinds arise - will do as they always do... lead investors to large losses. Look at yesterday's disaster of the most owned stock in panelist portfolios on the shows - $GOOGL - which declined by -13% today (-$42), its largest daily decline in history. Look at $AMZN and $INTC which were confidently touted by numerous guests/panelists all day today. Or Drawdown's conspicuous investment error $RDDT (down another -$30 in the after hours and -$100 to $103 since he featued the stock on @cnbchalftime only ten weeks ago). There was no panelists'/guests' contrition after the $GOOGL shortfall/disaster - there will likely be no contrition after $INTC and $AMZN today. And, disappointingly, there will be no pushback from shows' moderators. Their memories are short- mine are not. Res ipsa loquitor. BY Doug Kass · Oct 29, 2026, 4:10 PM EDT @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye_HGRO @RPKInvestor @jones @gnoble79 @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @cnbchalftime @andrewrsorkin @SullyCNBC @BeckyQuick @TheJudgeCNBC @carlquintanilla @guyadami @tomkeene @annmarie @business @convertbond @whitneytilson @peterboockvar
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“CXMT has said they want to basically add an entire Samsung’s worth of supply in 18 months. They want to go from No. 6 in the market to No. 1. It’s insane how much supply is coming online in 2027.” - Paul Kedrosky, via Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
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“If you are not prepared to use force to defend civilization, then be prepared to accept barbarism.” — Thomas Sowell
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Chris Watling retweeted
The reason for the return of diplomacy between Europe and Russia is the change in the geopolitical and geoeconomic environment. With oil at over $100, and France on the brink of a debt crisis, Europe is politically and financially not able to maintain its support for Ukraine at the level needed for Ukraine to resist Russia's advance, let alone push back. At no point during the last five years did western European leaders have a strategy to secure Ukraine's victory. Nor did they have a strategy for peace. It is too early to say what yesterday's call between Støre, Stubb and Putin will accomplish, but we are now entering a different phase. eurointelligence.com
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