I have registered to become an active participant in the emergence of a new autonomous network economy.
I believe in forever. teapawt.net/forevercultfund/status…
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Skew is now live on mobile for beta users.
█████ & ███████ coming next.
skew.trade
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OLD COIN BAD, NEW COIN GUD
when i first moved from hft options mm to stat arb, i had to learn a v important lesson:
>spot price does not matter
>the only thing that matters is flows
essentially: it is easier to frontrun the next flows than to tell the mkt it is wrong
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🧵Understanding & Contextualizing Liquidity
1/ Much has been said about liquidity on this platform. Furthermore, there has been a good deal of oversimplification on the subject. In this thread, we share our conceptual framework for liquidity & help contextualize where we are..
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I've been hearing about the transition from LIBOR to SOFR for a while, but this new article from @concodanomics really hit it home for me in terms of understanding. Awesome stuff here concoda.substack.com/p/the-s…
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If the dollar is set to rally from here, what does that mean for inflation? A short 🧵
Conventional wisdom holds that if the dollar rallies, US inflation will fall. A good narrative, as the US is a net importer, and imports become cheaper when the dollar strengthens
BUT...
1/8
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Since "Chinese Spy Balloon" is trending: In 1945, the crew of USS New York spotted a sphere that they thought might be a Japanese balloon weapon. The captain ordered it shot down but none of the guns could score a hit. Finally, a navigator realized they were attacking Venus.
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1/13
🧵on the yield curve, what its inversion means and why today was important.
An inverted curve is short rates (3mo bill) higher than long rates (10yr note). It is the market’s opinion that the Fed is too tight.
This is not normal and why its occurrence means something,
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1/🧵 VOL. TRADING
I received a very interesting message today, regarding this week's Vol. Trading newsletter.
This has inspired me to post my thinking and intuition around vol. trading.
(Others can disagree and make valid arguments, this is just how I think)
blablub retweeted
This is so good. It’s going to be in 4 parts because it’s so long.
Stanley Druckenmiller’s 2023 forecast
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The biggest market read from the Q4 senior loan officers survey is for credit. The tightening of lending standards today implies that by the middle of next year corporate credit default rates could be 8% - not the 3.5% currently discounted in the markets
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US CPI in October was 7.7% but there's a hidden reason to believe that we're very close to a local CPI top.
Starting in January 2023, the BLS plans to change the CPI calculation (again), which will likely (and not surprisingly) lower the CPI prints.
What are they doing?
🧵👇
1/
