Researcher, science translator, consultant in CO. Weather/climate impacts on water, society, ecosystems. Goal: No surprises, better-informed decisions. He/him.
Joined January 2021
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On this date (1/17) in 1930, the Boulder COOP station dropped to -33 F, the all-time record Tmin.
The Tmin at Boulder yesterday was -14 F -- plenty frigid, but it barely makes the 50 lowest Tmins since 1893 (see table).
COOP data: SC-ACIS scacis.rcc-acis.org/
ALT Table showing the dates and values of the 50 lowest daily minimum temperatures observed at the Boulder (CO) COOP station, 1893-3034
Note there have been several station moves in the >120-year history of the Boulder COOP, so these Tmins aren't quite apples-apples. But 1/16-17/1930 was indeed super-cold; all-time Tmins at Longmont (-38) & Kassler SW of Denver (-32), and #2 at Fort Collins (-38)
#CRWUA2023 participants and onlookers:
For access/links to
- summaries of key areas of CRB science
- important CRB datasets, tools, resources
- new and recent CRB research papers
- and much more
Check out the Colorado River Science Wiki: coloradoriverscience.org
ALT Screenshot of the main page of the Colorado River Science Wiki, at coloradoriverscience.org, showing the header and main navigation bar
Colorado has warmed over 2 degrees F in the past 40 years, impacting water supply, water demand, wildfire risk, ecosystem resilience, and much more.
#ShowYourStripes
ShowYourStripes.info
ALT Time-series chart of Colorado statewide annual average temperatures, 1895 to 2022, showing significant warming over that period.
Do you need climate-change information for local decision-making in the West (or elsewhere)? Check out this resource!
And let us know if it's helpful, and how we can improve/update it.
(Julie Vano of @aspenglobal and I developed it; funding: @NOAAClimate & @aspenglobal)
There are a lot of climate portals available. This "User Guide to Climate Change Portals" provides practical guidance for navigating the landscape of climate change portals and resources to find what you need.
toolkit.climate.gov/tool/use…
ALT 6 green squares in a three by three. Each square has a different icon involving a computer with an icon on the computer icon screen.
When
- It's late February
- 2011 is the closest snowpack analog
- Storms incoming
It's OK to feel good about *this* year. Above-average runoff is now very likely.
Following on @LukeRunyon: We just need halfway decent spring snow to seal the deal.
#ColoradoRiver
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Looking for climate change projections and related information for the Mountain West?
Wed 2/8 (11 am MT), Julie Vano and I will walk through A User Guide to Climate Change Portals, on a @wwanews webinar.
User Guide: agci.org/projects/climate-po…
Join us on 2/8 at 11am (MT) for our webinar, New #Climate Information Tools: A User Guide to Climate Change Portals and the Utah Hazard Planning Dashboard, with guest speakers Jeff Lukas and Julie Vano and WWA's Seth Arens.
Register here: cuboulder.zoom.us/webinar/re…
Snow x Ross's Goose hybrid?
Lafayette, CO - February 1, 2023
#CObirds
@BirdingMagazine
Update of the forecasted Powell inflows chart. Past 2+ weeks has been very good for the Upper Basin.
Jan 1st @nwscbrfc forecast called for 105% of average inflows.
Jan 17th forecast: 125% of average.
Long way to go, but really low #ColoradoRiver flows are off the table.
The snow gods are giving the #ColoradoRiver and all of us in the basin a little breathing room this water year.
Upper Basin now at >150% of the median SWE for mid-January, and almost 75% of the peak SWE--about three months ahead of the typical peak.
ALT Time-series chart of Upper Colorado River Basin Snow-water equivalent from October 1st to August 1st, showing that 2023 is running well ahead of normal conditions, through January 16th.
A blast from the past: In the late 90s I was with the @NCAR_Science GPS dropsonde team, doing tech writing/editing/graphics--and I created this 'visual fact sheet.'
The description still applies to the current RD41 sonde, which is dropped into dozens of storms each year.
Dropsonde measurements provide a detailed look at a tropical storm’s structure & intensity, and enable forecasters to map the steering currents that influence its movement. Wind observations from dropsondes also help properly characterize a storm’s wind field structure. #12Days
ALT Photo 📸: A graphic labeling each part of a GPS dropsonde and its use. Photo Credit: NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
The Colorado River Science Wiki is now up at coloradoriverscience.org
A new resource to make CO River research, data, tools, and other information more accessible
Please share widely!
Thx to teammates @bradudall, Julie Vano, Tanya Petach
Interested in #ColoradoRiver science, data, tools, policy, events, and people ? coloradoriverscience.org, a new wiki is now online that addresses these topics. /1
@LukasClimate
@TanyaPetach
@southwest_casc
@COWaterCenter
@aspenglobal
Note that these #CORiver Tier 2a cuts for AZ, NV, MX are only slightly more than the current cuts under Tier 1:
AZ: 592 kaf (+80 kaf vs Tier 1)
NV: 25 kaf (+4 kaf)
MX: 104 kaf (+24 kaf)
So that's 108 kaf of additional cuts to the Lower Basin under 2a.
1/2
Superb and sobering essay in NYT by my tree-ring colleague @locallyabsent, documenting ring-by-ring the ongoing megadrought in the West and its impacts. Incredible images too.
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Yesterday: Rainbow at sunset over Lafayette, CO.
Today: 50% chance of pm showers; near zero chance of it looking as amazing as this. But I'll be watching.
#cowx
One small part of the #CORiver water crunch: Scottsdale cutting off water haulers who serve nearby rural areas.
But, please, this is not a "suburb": 2000 homes in 20 square miles = ~6 acres per home. That these exurbs in the West are prone to water insecurity is an old story.
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If you haven't yet read it--and you should--"Water is for Fighting Over..." (2016) by @jfleck is *free* from @IslandPress.
Does the recent trajectory of the #CORiver undercut John's thesis? Or affirm how collaboration (DCPs, 500 kaf plan) can meet challenges?
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It's #ShowYourStripes Day.
Here's Colorado's 2 deg F warming since the 1980s, which has been in step with the global average warming timing-wise, but enhanced due to our inland, mid-latitude location. As it will be in the future.
(Data: NOAA NCEI, via showyourstripes.info)
The planet is warming.
Every country is warming.
We're already experiencing the consequences.
Burning fossil fuels has caused this.
The consequences get worse for every bit of warming.
Our choices determine how bad it gets.
#ShowYourStripes ShowYourStripes.info
Gleick and Linda Nash's early-90s work on climate change and the #CORiver was groundbreaking and sadly prescient.
Using GCMs and a hydrologic model, they set the standard for subsequent studies--which have confirmed their main findings again and again. As has reality.
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