Founder/CEO of Arkomina | Investor | Macroeconomist | Stock Picker | Not investment advice (see disclaimer) | https://xitter.cf/t.co/RKwv0ZOS4v
London, UK
Joined January 2022
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Are semis in a bubble?
$NVDA at 17x forward (triple-digit growth). $MU at 5x with even bigger growth. $AAPL at 37x for mid-teens growth.
The pricing looks inverted.
New piece on the valuation gap, the demand picture, and what comes next.
arkominaresearch.substack.co…
Hot #CPI and #PPI prints. Everyone worried #inflation is taking off.
The bond market saw through it. Long-term yields fell.
Most of the “hotness” was energy and statistical noise, not actual inflation.
Full breakdown of what’s distorting the numbers and what it means for the #Fed and #markets:
arkominaresearch.substack.co…
Sep #CPI and #PPI triggered the usual “#inflation is back” reaction.
Most of the jump is a statistical artifact rather than a new inflationary impulse.
Paid subscribers get the full breakdown tomorrow of what’s actually distorting the numbers and what it means for the #Fed and markets.
Sep #PPI hotter than expected
Headline
+1.3% MoM vs +0.5% conesnsus vs +0.5% in Aug
Core
+0.7% MoM vs +0.3% consensus vs +0.2% in Aug
#inflation
Sep #CPI was hotter than my estimates, solely due to Shelter.
Shelter added +12 bps to the headline CPI and +15 bps to the core CPI.
My headline CPI estimate was +3.61% YoY, but the actual print was +13 bps higher at +3.74% YoY. Take out the Shelter effect and my headline CPI estimate was almost perfect, within 1 bp.
My Core CPI estimate was +2.41% YoY, but the actual print was +15 bps higher at +2.56% YoY. Take out the Shelter effect and my core CPI estimate was perfect, with 0 bps error.
Mini thread.
1/4
Then, what happens if we switch Shelter with actual rent #inflation?
You wouldn't believe it, but core #CPI with ALNRI drops to just +0.8% YoY.
Is that "above target"? Asking for a friend...
3/4
So, the #Fed has been telling us that they will hike rates because statistics are having a hard time measuring some of the key components.
Is that really a reason to hike rates?
What are we talking about?
The Fed should be looking at actual inflation and disregard numbers that only exist in statistical models and nowhere else.
To my surprise, the bond market finally saw through this #CPI print and the yields went down, not up, after it.
4/4
Sep #CPI hotter than expected
Headline
+0.6% MoM vs +0.6% consensus vs +0.4% in Aug
+3.7% YoY vs +3.6% consensus vs +3.4% in Aug
Core
+0.3% MoM vs +0.2% consensus vs +0.3% in Aug
+2.6% YoY vs +2.5% consensus vs +2.4% in Aug
#inflation
Marko Bjegovic retweeted
Sep #CPI goes out on Wed at 8:30 am ET.
Since mid-2023, my CPI estimates have beaten Wall Street's about 70% of the time.
You can access my estimates for Wednesday's CPI here (paid subs only):
arkominaresearch.substack.co…
So, the #Fed is telling us they "should" hike because growth is "resilient" enough to absorb hikes, even if there is no need to hike rates based on #inflation and the labor mkt data?
That sort of hubris typically ends in tears...
@federalreserve
Sep #CPI goes out on Wed at 8:30 am ET.
Since mid-2023, my CPI estimates have beaten Wall Street's about 70% of the time.
You can access my estimates for Wednesday's CPI here (paid subs only):
arkominaresearch.substack.co…
Agree with the facts but disagree with the conclusion bc:
1) Changes matter more than levels
2) We don't know whether the data will get revised up at some point in the future (a similar thing happened in 2023).
Someone at FT literally invented a story and mentioned "people familiar with the matter" to increase sales.
Next thing you know the NASDAQ got whacked.
When someone else invents a story suggesting the opposite, the NASDAQ will recover and then some.
Evidence of how leveraged the entire tech sector is to OpenAI & Anthropic: an FT story about OpenAI's revenue's being less than initially reported is spurring a more than 5% drop in Oracle shares, exacerbating losses from Nvidia and AMD to Microsoft ft.com/content/b66a9858-f8fb….
Q1 earnings season begins on Tue
$UNH, $JNJ, $C, $GS, $WFC on Tue.
$ASM, $BAC, $MS on Wed
$TSM on Thu.
Also $CPI on Wed. $PPI, retail sales, and #Fed Chair Warsh on Thu.
xitter.cf/eWhispers/status/21085…
Earnings for the week of October 12, 2026
earningswhispers.com/calenda…
$UNH $JPM $ASML $GS $TSM $WFC $BAC $AA $DPZ $JNJ $C $IBKR $MS $ERIC $AZZ $CMC $BLK $SCHW $MAN $ACI $FBK $EQBK $INDB $JBHT $MTB $PGR $TRV $WSE $WAFD $PNC $RF $SFNC $STT $TFC $HOMB $MRSH $CNS $FAST $FHN $CFG $SOTK $BNY $BSVN $PLD $NRDBY $WIT $USB
ALT The most anticipated earnings releases for the week of October 12, 2026, are UnitedHealth Group #UNH, JPMorgan Chase #JPM, ASML #ASML, Goldman Sachs #GS, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing #TSM, Wells Fargo #WFC, Bank of America #BAC, Alcoa #AA, Domino's Pizza #DPZ, and Johnson & Johnson #JNJ.
September jobs were weaker than the Fed will admit. Payrolls +29K (vs +90K), unemployment 4.2%, wages +3.0% YoY.
3-month trend still soft. Participation-adjusted unemployment closer to 4.5%.
Free note is up.
Sep CPI estimates Monday, 2 days before the Wednesday release, for subscribers:
arkominaresearch.substack.co…