@MHReddell

Economist, commentator, director, homemaker (formerly RBNZ, NZ Tsy, IMF, BoZ, BPNG) By grace, a disciple of Christ

 Wellington
croakingcassandra.com
Joined October 2017
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  • Followers4.3K
5.7KMedia
Not perhaps the most compelling way to win the undecided: suggest, on the one hand, that National wants to fleece us, or on the other that we are just dumb sheep?
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For what (little?) it may be worth (the Polymarket contract)
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Two more public sector CE resignations announced yesterday, coming after the demise a few months ago of the FMA chair and CE, and before that Coster and the statutory deputy police commissioner McSkimming. Last year saw the ousting of both RBGovernor & board chair. Even if it..
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…perhaps gives the lie to the line of no one ever being accountable it is a pretty grim list. And that is before looking at the CEs who still should go: Nick Blakeley (misleading Parliament), Brian Roche (holding private directorships) & Ben King (fiancée an incoming MP)
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As an example I’m in Port Moresby which is now suffering quite badly from the Indonesian smoke haze: out my hotel room window (where it is usually crystal clear for miles) decent visibility is about 50-100 metres. stuff.co.nz/world-news/36104…

How monster El Niño is causing havoc around the world

From off-the-scale fires in Indonesia to disruptions to the Panama Canal, predictions that this year’s El Niño would hit hard are panning out.

stuff.co.nz
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Kudos to the Reserve Bank who, while continuing to be obstructive on many OIAs, appear to have started proactively releasing a lot more papers this year. (NB however, real transparency/accountability is about stuff agencies are uncomfortable releasing) rbnz.govt.nz/research-and-pu…
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Reporting of RBNZ staff numbers tends to focus on the 3rd column(reported in the Ann Report) but I got an update from them on some fuller numbers they released last yr. Total headcount of ca600 is just extraordinary, almost certainly at leastr 2x the comparable number 10yrs ago.
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<2% would have been my answer if that option had been available.
Robin Hanson
@robinhansonOct 21
What is the chance that, if you studied them carefully, you would prefer the median morals/values of world elites 50yrs from now, over your morals/values today?
21%>2%
17%2-10%
28%10-40%
34%>40%
776 votes • Final results
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Morning Bible reading in Numbers and I stumble across a compulsory retirement age I’d never noticed before.
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Legal tender has never meant people can't refuse cash (and nor should it). And do NZF really want to drive away financial innovators like digital-only banks
Winston Peters
@winstonpetersOct 19
NZFirst will mandate that cash is accepted for payments and transactions. We have the legislation written and ready to be tabled immediately after the election. It is written on cash that it is legal tender. We will ensure it is written into law that every company, bank, organisation, or government office must accept cash for payment and transactions. No one has been given a mandate to not accept cash - in particular banks and local or central government. This incident is now adding to a growing list of organisations who think they can decide on behalf of people what legal tender is. This is evidence of the slow burn into digital overreach of our society - that no one has asked for.
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The RB’s own explanation rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project…
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"Unlike proposals from the [4 parties], the policy costing fn should not be the main purpose of a PBO. Instead, the indep assessment of the fiscal stance would be the most important fn." Not persuaded state shld pay for pre-election policy costings at all thepost.co.nz/nz-news/361096…

Fiscal crisis: Could a Parliamentary Budget Office help?

A Parliamentary Budget Office would provide visibility, transparency and public credibility to inform discussions about fiscal sustainability.

thepost.co.nz
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Column from me in response to Eric Crampton’s piece proposing bringing in 2.5m more young Europeans over the next 20 yrs. Even if it were to be politically sustainable it would prob worsen econ performance; fiscal pressures shld be dealt with directly thepost.co.nz/nz-news/361097…

We should tackle our ageing population by lifting the pension age – not importing more young...

OPINION: Serious countries address their own problems.

thepost.co.nz
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I should add that while I disagree strongly with his specific proposal, the value of Eric’s column is that it starkly highlights the sheer scale of the fiscal pressures posed by the combination of further birth rate reductions & welcome increases in life expectancy.
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Interesting to wonder who would become Minister of Finance if the right wins and Willis, Bishop, and Goldsmith all lost their seats. Presumably either Brown or Stanford?
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NZ v much on the wrong side of this chart
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Good. It was always a solution in search of a problem. rnz.co.nz/news/business/1872…

Reserve Bank puts digital cash on hold

The Reserve Bank has paused the development of its digital cash proposal.

rnz.co.nz
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One of today’s winners of the economics Nobel had a paper in 1999 in a top journal on why some countries are more productive than others. Unfortunately it didn’t really shed light on (say) NZ vs the productivity leaders. web.stanford.edu/~chadj/Hall…
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While not disagreeing with Seymour's basic point, the first decision to move the age to 65 was made in the 1989 Budget, by a government in which Clark was a minister. (The incoming Nat govt then greatly accelerated the move)
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From a Tsy working paper
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