MTW Research

MTW's new LVT flooring market report shows residential LVT flooring sales gaining share in 2026 as contract LVT underperforms by value & volume. Welcome news for independent flooring retailers after challenging times. More at marketresearchreports.co.uk/…

UK kitchen market sales are 20% lower than 2019 according to MTW's new Kitchen Market Report 2026 based on £5bn of sales. Though positive news awaits independent kitchen retailers. More at marketresearchreports.co.uk/…

UK Public Sector Spending in 2026 is forecast to have increased by 60% since 2019

5% UK Inflation by December 2026? The Iran Shock Impact on UK CPI Current position: UK CPI at 3.0% y/y (Feb print). March data (due 22 April) will show the first clear energy-driven leg-up. Core drivers verified: • Oil/tanker shock (late-Feb Iran conflict + Hormuz disruption): UK marginal delivered costs confirmed in $130–150/bbl range • Indirect channels: haulage rates +6–10%, manufacturing PPI (plastics/chemicals) +5–10% • Fertiliser shock: nitrogen prices up 30–39% (AN £521–530/t, granular urea £631/t). UK imports ~60% of needs The fertiliser spike will feed directly into 2026 harvest costs and hit retail food prices from Q4. Quantified pass-through to CPI (food = 8.7% basket weight): • Direct energy/petrol: +0.5–0.8pp • Indirect transport/contractors/manufacturing: +0.7–1.2pp • Fertiliser → domestic food production: +1.2–2.1pp → Total uplift vs pre-shock path: +2.4–4.1pp by year-end Revised forecast: Dec 2026 CPI: 3.8–4.5% (central case ~4.1%) Base case calc: pre-shock path ~2.0% + 3.1pp uplift (energy 0.6 + indirect 0.9 + fertiliser 1.6) Food inflation component: 5.5–7.5% Bottom line: The combined oil + freight + fertiliser shock has turned 2026 into a sticky 4%+ regime through autumn/winter — not the clean disinflation previously expected. 5% inflation by December is now a credible ~35% probability risk.

Residential refurbishment strengthens in Dec 2025 with +6.4% YoY growth. Rolling 12 month activity is now up +0.5%, boosting optimism for DIY & residential RMI suppliers.

Commercial refurbishment activity sees rapid downturn in Nov & Dec 2025 with -0.6% and -1.2% declines. Rolling 12 month commercial RMI activity now negative for the first time since June 2024.

Housebuilding completions decelerate in Q4... declining -4.6% year on year in December 2025 after -4.2% YoY fall in November.

2025 was a challenging year for many building & home improvement suppliers. However, one sector performing reasonably well despite the headwinds was the UK Facilities Management market... More at tinyurl.com/nmfc5s6c

The 2025 Showers Market report from MTW sees healthier trading ahead... buildersmerchantsnews.co.uk/…

£3bn sales uplift for FM market in 2022 fmj.co.uk/3bn-sales-uplift-f… via @fmjtoday

2022 FM Market Trends are challenging but positive according to MTW's new FM Market Report 2022, with a £3 billion sales boost coming soon. Get the new report here:- marketresearchreports.co.uk/…

Timber frame house building market could hit '£1bn one day', report claims forestryjournal.co.uk/news/2…