Martin Pacovsky

NEW from me: China's CO2 emissions posted zero growth in the third quarter, despite a rebound in coal power generation. China saw a sharp increase in power demand caused by late-summer heatwaves. Yet total CO2 emissions didn't increase due to rapid growth in clean power generation, which mitigated power sector emission growth, while emissions fell sharply in the steel, cement and freight sectors, affected by the ongoing contraction in construction activity, and gas demand outside the power sector stagnated. Solar power generation, in particular, increased 44% year-on-year, as China is on track to increase power generation from solar this year by more than the total solar power generation of the U.S. Wind power generation grew by 24% It's however still uncertain whether emissions will increase or decrease in the full year 2024 compared with the previous year. Emissions need to fall by at least 2% in the last quarter in order for full-year emissions to decline compared with 2023, a drop that will likely be realized if power demand growth cools down as expected and hydropower performs in line with historical average. The rate of clean energy additions has continued to increase further in 2024, after explosive growth in 2023. Yet, emissions haven't fallen as much as I expected after the rebound from zero-Covid ended in March. Energy consumption growth has continued to exceed historical rates, a symptom of the government's manufacturing-focused economic strategy making the economy more energy-intensive. Another concerning development was that the coal-to-chemicals industry received renewed political backing and coal consumption in the sector has risen by nearly a fifth in the year to date. Increasing summertime temperatures and improved living standards are also driving unprecedentedly rapid increases in air conditioning power demand. In addition, hydropower generation has continued to underperform this year compared with historical averages, while recovering from last year's record-low availability caused by historic droughts. Yet, looking at the whole summer period, whether taken as May-September or June-August, clean-energy expansion covered all of electricity demand growth. The rapid clean energy growth, if maintained, paves the way for a sustained emissions decline. If the current downturn in China's emissions is sustained, with emissions falling in the second quarter and stable in the third quarter, that would open the door to the country beginning to reduce emissions much faster than its current commitments require. This would have enormous significance for the global effort to avoid catastrophic climate change, as China's emissions growth has been the dominant factor pushing global emissions up for the past eight years since the signing of the Paris climate agreement. Recent analyses of China's emission pathway find that the country can achieve very substantial emission reductions by 2035. We at @CREACleanAir projected a 30% reduction from current levels based on current clean energy growth and other positive trends and targets, while the @IEA World Energy Outlook found that China would achieve a 24% reduction following stated policies, rising to 45% following announced levels of ambition, including a consistent pathway to the country's carbon neutrality target. However, China's policymakers are currently signaling low ambition for the new emission targets for 2030 and 2035 that they need to submit to the UN next year. It's vital that future targets reflect ongoing clean energy trends to avoid locking in lower ambitions. Read the full article for a deeper look: 👉 carbonbrief.org/analysis-no-…