Triangulating markets through technicals, sentiment, & macro MO: A Community for traders seeking an uncommon edge https://xitter.cf/t.co/4VCCRiG5bE
Austin TX
Joined December 2015
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Markets have a busy day ahead of them with FOMC this afternoon followed by $GOOGL and $MSFT earnings after the close. As always, it's not the news that matters but the market reaction.
As for today's early action, Russell small caps have taken back leadership from the Nasdaq, but it's the semis running alongside the Russell this morning not the banks. The megas are mixed with most of the Mag 7 red, but that's not enough to keep VOLs bid. VIX is well into the 17s now and VIX futures are all headed lower.
Both market models continue to improve, a sign that market structure is improving (HRV model) and acute stressors are relaxing (EWS model). Their respective 10-session moving averages are also trying to flip in the constructive direction.
All of this could change today, but it's encouraging to go into these events with markets in a more stable place than they were just a week or two ago.
$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $DJX $DIA $VIX $VVIX $BKX solana:5XqMbyZbtse5UQUzgrYMpeWLWLR6BWFqUm5H3VAWpump $SMH
MACRO OPS retweeted
It’s hard to accept that extremely fearful conditions (evidenced by extremely narrow breadth, highly skewed sector flows, etc.) are of the extremely bullish variety, given big-picture margin activity. 🤔
MACRO OPS retweeted
Let me be clear: this is not a call for a top. It’s a friendly reminder that price leads fundamentals.
Except for Lucent’s January 2000 warning, about two months before the peak, most earnings misses, profit warnings, and bankruptcies occurred well after the March 2000 high.
MACRO OPS retweeted
$MSFT - MICROSOFT OFFERS BUYOUTS TO 60,000 WORKERS AMID AI SPENDING BOOM
Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to approximately 60,000 employees as it restructures its workforce and redirects spending toward AI.
Key details:
🔸 60,000 workers eligible across the US, Canada, India, and UK.
🔸 223,000 employees globally as of June.
🔸 Data center teams are among those excluded from the offer.
🔸 Eligible employees will receive severance-style benefits.
The key takeaway: Microsoft is tightening labor costs while protecting critical AI infrastructure investments, highlighting how AI spending is reshaping Big Tech employment.
MACRO OPS retweeted
There lies a question beneath every threshold we seek to cross: a strategy moving from simulation to live markets, a promotion to portfolio manager, the leap from a firm to a fund of our own. “Can I trust this?”
This week’s essay is about the question embedded within that one, and the only place real trust can be found.
In markets: energy followed through. NYMEX Brent broke out of its 7-month head-and-shoulders continuation, January Brent retested its neckline and pushed higher, and December WTI crude put the 2x target of 114.87 in play. January feeder cattle recompleted their head-and-shoulders reversal and sit 70% of the way to target, December hogs retested the lower boundary of their running wedge and printed a new low, and white sugar is back at its 50-day SMA with both targets already met. In equities, integrated oil names are mirroring the energy futures.
Read this week's issue of This Infinite Game here: research.macro-ops.com/p/bef…
MACRO OPS retweeted
Comfort Systems (FIX), a former portfolio holding, is another textbook example of the Dual Trend System doing exactly what it was designed to do: identify strong trends, capture the move, and help manage risk when conditions change.
MACRO OPS retweeted
Every regime change prints a red spade. And a decade of ordinary cards does not teach you to see the trick card.
Only trick cards do.
MACRO OPS retweeted
JEFFERIES DESK:
“.. in the last 10 days, we’ve been net for sale in Tech to the tune of > $1B on 7 of those days.
.. And for reference, here’s our net trading flows over a 20D period, one of the more dramatic net selling periods we’ve seen in Tech in recent years.”
MACRO OPS retweeted
Given the strength in consumer staples today, it seems like a good time to revisit a study from the Chart of the Week series, highlighting instances when the sector posted a 10-day rate of change (ROC) of at least 9% either in the 10 sessions leading up to an S&P 500 record high or in the 10 sessions immediately following one.
MACRO OPS retweeted
The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. vanityfair.com/story/jared-k…
MACRO OPS retweeted
The SKEW Index has reached an extreme level.
Over the past 10 years, this has happened only a handful of times. In the last three instances, it preceded significant downside pressure on equities—not immediately, but weeks later.
Current price action looks more like 2021. If this analogy holds, we could see a year-end rally before a downturn in January 2027.
*The CBOE SKEW Index measures the perceived tail risk of extreme negative returns in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, based on the prices of out-of-the-money options (with 100 indicating a normal distribution and higher readings signaling greater demand for crash protection).
MACRO OPS retweeted
Probably my 1000th time reading this but worth reminding everyone again why Druck will forever be the GOAT
MACRO OPS retweeted
Here’s the midterm election-year scorecard, comparing 2026 with the composite of years when the S&P 500 closed within 3% of a record high on day 188, the seasonal low. Momentum, interest rates, and inflation are all at their most unfavorable levels in the dataset, while market breadth is the weakest on record. But who knows? Maybe the market will deliver the average 17% gain next year after all.
MACRO OPS retweeted
The last 3 times since the Russell 2000 $IWM had consecutive closes below the 200-day for the first time in at least 200 sessions.
