The model behind every CFP path, priced nightly, and the CBB bracket engine that runs all spring. Free games. Live odds. Receipts.
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ALT MarchMetrix opening-night college basketball graphic on a near-black background with ink-white typography and red brand accents. Each team column is centered on one axis: large gold AP rank, school logo, primary team name, and mascot line. No. 1 Florida faces No. 14 Miami in Tampa at 6 PM Eastern on ESPN2. The graphic says college basketball is back and every result builds a March résumé.
ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled ‘The board finally moved.’ Georgia has the board’s biggest change, falling from 87.2% to 85.4%, down 1.8 percentage points. Miami moves from No. 5 to No. 4 at 95.1%, while Indiana moves from No. 4 to No. 5 at 94.0%. October 2, 2026 model based on 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.
ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled The board reset overnight. It shows four Monday model changes: Boise State rose from 17.9% and number 19 to 100.0% and number 1, meaning it is included in all 10,000 current simulations; Oregon rose from 18.4% to 38.9%, up 20.5 percentage points and moving from number 18 to number 13; Penn State fell from 19.2% to 2.8%, down 16.4 points and moving from number 17 to number 26; Mississippi State rose from 7.6% to 18.5%, up 10.9 points. Sep. 28 model, 10,000 simulations. Model probability, not a guarantee.
ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic comparing Iowa at Michigan. The Week 4 game probability is Iowa 51.7% and Michigan 48.3%. The separate season-long CFP probability is Iowa 28.5%, ranked 17th on the board, and Michigan 8.8%, ranked 21st. The Sep. 26 model uses 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.
ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine chart for Texas at Tennessee on September 26. Game probability: Texas 50.2% and Tennessee 49.8%. Texas has a 74.0% CFP chance with a win and 44.6% with a loss, a 29.4-point swing. Tennessee has a 44.7% CFP chance with a win and 17.4% with a loss, a 27.3-point swing. September 25 model, 10,000 simulations. Conditional season outcomes, not a prediction of the game winner.
ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic comparing Oregon at USC. The Week 4 game probability is USC 56.2% and Oregon 43.8%. The separate season-long CFP probability is USC 35.3%, ranked 15th on the board, and Oregon 7.4%, ranked 22nd. The Sep. 24 model uses 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.
ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic comparing Texas and Tennessee. The Week 4 game probability is nearly even: Texas 50.2% and Tennessee 49.8%. The separate season-long CFP probability is farther apart: Texas 60.1% and Tennessee 30.8%. The Sep. 23 model is based on 10,000 simulations. Model probabilities, not betting odds.
ALT MarchMetrix Playoff Machine graphic titled “The loss hit hard. The forecast barely moved.” Ohio State is No. 4 nationally with an 81.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff. The top five are Indiana 95.7%, Notre Dame 92.2%, Miami 85.0%, Ohio State 81.9%, and Texas Tech 77.1%, based on 10,000 simulations from the Sep. 16, 2026 model update.
ALT MarchMetrix Saturday Four card for Texas Tech versus Houston. Texas Tech costs $36 of a $100 budget, has an 87.8% projected win probability, and earns 14 points for a win. The game kicks Friday, September 18 at 7:00 PM Central. Week 3 slate updated September 15, 2026.