Global_Macro retweeted
Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (1984)
One of my go to movies that always cheers me up.
Global_Macro retweeted
FEDWATCH: “.. the AI trade bubble is evident across the entire AI infrastructure stack.
.. Names such as .. Lam Research, GE Vernova, Vertiv, Bloom Energy .. have fallen 30% to 35% from late-June highs, while their investment-grade spreads have widened 40 to 60 basis points ..”
Global_Macro retweeted
Ben Emons says hotter inflation, including renewed shelter pressures, could force the Federal Reserve to become more restrictive, with his model putting the odds of an October rate hike around 70%.
He also breaks down turmoil in French bonds, where political and fiscal uncertainty is driving investors away from French debt and pressuring European banks.
While contagion remains relatively contained, Emons warns higher European yields and tighter financial conditions could still spill over into U.S. markets.
For more market news, tune in at: SchwabNetwork.com/?CID=SM:Tw…
Global_Macro retweeted
Fertilizer through Hormuz has dropped to zero.
No fertilizer cargoes crossing the strait in September or October.
Before the war, about 20% of the world’s traded nitrogen fertilizer went through it, Fertilizer Daily reports.
The Gulf also supplies about half of the world’s traded sulfur.
Hear me out: urea isn’t the problem.
China raised its nitrogen exports about 47% and the US about 60%.
By the end of August urea was back to its January price, IFPRI data shows.
Sulfur is the problem.
It has more than doubled, to above $1,000 a tonne, and phosphate is up 25–30%.
You need sulfur to make phosphate fertilizer.
Mosaic has idled two Louisiana plants, and India’s fertilizer subsidy bill could pass 3 trillion rupees, against 1.71 trillion budgeted.
Oil found other ways out of the Gulf.
Sulfur hasn’t.
source: World Visualized
Global_Macro retweeted
CHART OF THE DAY: The price of natural gas in the US 🇺🇸 and Europe 🇪🇺. Now, imagine running a gas-intensive company (say, a fertilizer plant) in either region. Europe >$30; US <$3





















