Chief Investment Officer, Fed Watcher, Author and TV/radio Contributor. Opinions are my own.

New York
Joined April 2020
AI bubble across the entire infrastructure stack
3
33
4
147
23,427
French Fed risk
2
341
Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (1984) One of my go to movies that always cheers me up.
33
63
5
651
9,608
FEDWATCH: “.. the AI trade bubble is evident across the entire AI infrastructure stack. .. Names such as .. Lam Research, GE Vernova, Vertiv, Bloom Energy .. have fallen 30% to 35% from late-June highs, while their investment-grade spreads have widened 40 to 60 basis points ..”
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44
4
161
16,622
Global_Macro retweeted
Ben Emons says hotter inflation, including renewed shelter pressures, could force the Federal Reserve to become more restrictive, with his model putting the odds of an October rate hike around 70%. He also breaks down turmoil in French bonds, where political and fiscal uncertainty is driving investors away from French debt and pressuring European banks. While contagion remains relatively contained, Emons warns higher European yields and tighter financial conditions could still spill over into U.S. markets. For more market news, tune in at: SchwabNetwork.com/?CID=SM:Tw…
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3
11
2,414
The gap between the market and the Fed has not been this wide since 2022
1
39
2,897
Global_Macro retweeted
Fertilizer through Hormuz has dropped to zero. No fertilizer cargoes crossing the strait in September or October. Before the war, about 20% of the world’s traded nitrogen fertilizer went through it, Fertilizer Daily reports. The Gulf also supplies about half of the world’s traded sulfur. Hear me out: urea isn’t the problem. China raised its nitrogen exports about 47% and the US about 60%. By the end of August urea was back to its January price, IFPRI data shows. Sulfur is the problem. It has more than doubled, to above $1,000 a tonne, and phosphate is up 25–30%. You need sulfur to make phosphate fertilizer. Mosaic has idled two Louisiana plants, and India’s fertilizer subsidy bill could pass 3 trillion rupees, against 1.71 trillion budgeted. Oil found other ways out of the Gulf. Sulfur hasn’t. source: World Visualized
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747
104
1,767
109,531
Disclosures of Common Vulnerabilities (CVE tracker): cyber risk disruptions are spiking
1
6
998
The Fed heads into this FOMC meeting with hawkish sentiment at its peak
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1
16
1,784
Global_Macro retweeted
CHART OF THE DAY: The price of natural gas in the US 🇺🇸 and Europe 🇪🇺. Now, imagine running a gas-intensive company (say, a fertilizer plant) in either region. Europe >$30; US <$3
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517
109
1,909
168,739
Bonds on heads and shoulders
5
39
2,637
The Oil-Yield dislocation
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4
20
5,061
Cost of Credit (%)
4
2
15
1,588
When negative free cash flow is a negative
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817
The Hedge Fund unwind
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668
The correlation between the Nasdaq and 10Y French yield is moving to positive
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1
4
838
The French Kiss
4
22
2,428
The AI capital structure hedge
1
16
1,249